2024 Brewers Rotation

[wallus]

. 

[brewerfan82]

31 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

You think he's going to be effective in the starting rotation throwing 63% sliders? You think he's going to hold up doing that? Is there an example at the MLB level of anyone having success throwing sliders at such a high frequency as a starting pitcher? Over the last 2 years he's had most of his success in relief, I think he can be good in relief assuming his arm holds up...I have no confidence he can take his relief repertoire and pitch 5-6 good innings.

Junis' last 2 years as a reliever (2.4 IP/G):

Junis' last 2 years as a starter (4.6 IP/GS):

From the innings, you can see he was usually a multi inning relief/piggyback type pitcher as a reliever and likely often used as an "opener" as a starter, but still made it into the 5th inning often in that role as well. So you can definitely derive some of that success in both roles the past two years to minimizing how many times he faced each batter.

That said, over that same time, he also produced...

• 3.15 ERA in 6 games where he pitched at least 6 innings
• 2.98 ERA in 13 games where he pitched at least 5 innings
• 3.38 ERA in 24 games where he pitched at least 4 innings
• 3.55 ERA in 33 games where he pitched at least 3 innings

It'll be interesting to see how he's used, but he definitely shows some potential as at least a let him go through the order a couple times type of starter.

[homer]

Hey everyone....no need to get snarky or condescending or call names.  Take a deep breath maybe do a sudoku and then post. Take emotion out of it. 

Namaste

[MVP2110]

I just want to say the difference between 90% and 68% is extremely large 

[CheeseheadInQC]

Projections are always going to err on the side of regression toward the mean (and for starters it is closer to 60% vs. 40% if I did the math right). The optimism the Brewers can get 4 starters out of the 7 possibilities behind Peralta stems in part I think from their ability to do so with less than ideal options in past years.

[edfunderburk]

In 2023 - Burnes, Woodruff, & Houser combined for 64 starts - 372 innings - 3.41 ERA 

I’m actually excited to see what the 2024 rotation looks like - including which pitchers make up these innings & what the overall production looks like as the season progresses

I hope Peralta & Miley stay healthy & eat innings while we cobble together the remainder of the starting rotation

I may be wrong, but I believe we have enough arms & talent among the mix of veterans & youngsters to be competitive in the NL Central once again this year

I’m ready for baseball … the Bucks have been terribly disappointing after losing Jrue Holiday & adding Damian Lillard … I’d rather watch the youth movement of the Brewers - especially with expectations lower than in previous years

[monty57]

On 2/16/2024 at 3:25 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

I honestly don’t think the Brewers are going to be relying on him to pitch5/6 good innings per start. 

It’s going to be more of a bulk relief type role where you don’t let him go through the order a 3rd time imo.

Again, we should adjust our expectations for our starters this year. It’s going to look more like 18-19 and less like 2021-2023. 

I think this is going to be the case. We have a lot of mid-to-back-of-the-rotation guys with innings concerns. Makes sense that some of them will end up as multi-inning relievers, while others will be starters who won't go deep into the game very often. 

They have employed this strategy successfully in the past, and I expect they'll try to do so again this year. Have five (or six) starters, two or three guys who can go 2-3 innings every few days, and a lockdown back of the 'pen. 

[benji]

I expect this too especially with Hall and Ashby probably being limited to 120 innings or so.

[Underachiever]

On 2/16/2024 at 11:20 AM, Jopal78 said:

For what it’s worth, here’s Keith Law’s take on Robert Gasser, might be time to tap the brakes on his ‘24 potential in the rotation unless they let him learn at the MLB level.

 

Gasser had a rough start to 2023, his first full year in the Brewers’ organization after they acquired him in the Josh Hader trade, but he came on strong in the second half and looks once again like a solid fourth starter. He dominates lefties but continues to have a platoon split, with all 12 homers he allowed last year coming to right-handed batters. He has an average or even above-average changeup, but he doesn’t use it enough, preferring his cutter in those situations even though that pitch only seems to get chase swing rather than swings in the zone. His fastball has average velocity with good arm-side run and his sweeper actually sweeps, hard and down away from lefties, generating a lot of swings right over the top. He does have to change his pitching plan against righties to get to that starter ceiling.

Keith Law said Justin Steele's upside was as a #5 starter as recently as September of 22. I'm not tapping any brakes.

[RobertCrawley]

Robots.

Wait.

Too early?

[CheezWizHed]

On 2/16/2024 at 4:19 PM, homer said:

Hey everyone....no need to get snarky or condescending or call names.  Take a deep breath maybe do a sudoku and then post. Take emotion out of it. 

Namaste

I did a sudoku and now I'm so angry!...

[kestrel79]

This season with Burnes gone / Woody out and the new rotation reminds me of the Moneyball scene where Bean is trying to "recreate Giambi in the aggregate". That's the 2024 Brewers rotation. How can we recreate Burnes and Woodruff's production in the aggregate? I bet it will be a ton of starters, guys getting shuffled down and called up. Phantom IL trips the Brewers are famous for. All that fun stuff. Buckle up!

[LouisEly]

---

So, back to the rotation...

My take - the Brewers don't need to be set with the rotation right now.  Nobody is predicted to run away with the NL Central - every team in the division has question marks.  They just need to be within a couple of games of the division lead/wild card in July and then take a few of those 15 prospects that so many of us were considering for the last 5 spots on the top 20 prospect list and acquire a starter for the stretch run to get in the playoffs if one is needed.

They don't need Woodruff for the whole season - they just need him to be ready to go by October 1st and get into the playoffs to boost the rotation.

What the rotation is on 4/1 isn't critical - it's being in contention in July and what the rotation looks like on 8/1 and 10/1 that matters much more.

[RobertCrawley]

25 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

---

So, back to the rotation...

My take - the Brewers don't need to be set with the rotation right now.  Nobody is predicted to run away with the NL Central - every team in the division has question marks.  They just need to be within a couple of games of the division lead/wild card in July and then take a few of those 15 prospects that so many of us were considering for the last 5 spots on the top 20 prospect list and acquire a starter for the stretch run to get in the playoffs if one is needed.

They don't need Woodruff for the whole season - they just need him to be ready to go by October 1st and get into the playoffs to boost the rotation.

What the rotation is on 4/1 isn't critical - it's being in contention in July and what the rotation looks like on 8/1 and 10/1 that matters much more.

Who has reported that he may be available October 1?

[Outlander]

 

59 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

Who has reported that he may be available October 1?

Nobody, not an option.

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

---

They don't need Woodruff for the whole season - they just need him to be ready to go by October 1st and get into the playoffs to boost the rotation.

 

Oh boy, are you setting yourself up more some pretty big disappointment...

[TURBO]

Aaron Ashby (shoulder) is healthy and will compete this spring for a spot in the Brewers’ season-opening starting rotation.

 

Ashby is among a handful of back-end starting rotation options for Milwaukee this spring after missing all of last year recovering from left shoulder surgery. The 25-year-old southpaw showed some flashes of fantasy potential earlier in his career and could be worthy of a speculative roster spot, if he locks up a rotation spot.

Source: Todd Rosiak

[DR28]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Aaron Ashby (shoulder) is healthy and will compete this spring for a spot in the Brewers’ season-opening starting rotation.

 

Ashby is among a handful of back-end starting rotation options for Milwaukee this spring after missing all of last year recovering from left shoulder surgery. The 25-year-old southpaw showed some flashes of fantasy potential earlier in his career and could be worthy of a speculative roster spot, if he locks up a rotation spot.

Source: Todd Rosiak

Thank god!

Peralta and Ashby at the top of our rotation is so much better! Really hope Hall's stuff is legit, that makes up one nice trio of starters.

[LouisEly]

6 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

Who has reported that he may be available October 1?

Nobody, but he's already started a throwing program.

https://brewerfanatic.com/forums/topic/42012-brewers-re-sign-brandon-woodruff-two-year-deal-per-heyman/page/5/#comment-1565874

He has seven months to be ready by 10/1 and he's already throwing.  I don't think that the Brewers would give him $2.5M for 2024 if they didn't think that he would be able to pitch at some point during the season.

[KeithStone53151]

6 hours ago, Outlander said:

 

Nobody, not an option.

Has a late season return been ruled out?

[Team Canada]

8 hours ago, LouisEly said:

I don't think that the Brewers would give him $2.5M for 2024 if they didn't think that he would be able to pitch at some point during the season.

I think they're giving him 2.5M to rehab the heck out of his shoulder and be ready for 2025.

[KeithStone53151]

1 minute ago, Team Canada said:

I think they're giving him 2.5M to rehab the heck out of his shoulder and be ready for 2025.

The 2.5 in 2024 isn't really relevant to whether he'll pitch this season. You just kinda look at the deal as a whole. The fact that he's starting a throwing program is very promising, I'm sure he'll be brought along very very slowly, but it's probably not fair to completely rule out a 2024 return unless it's being reported as impossible...which I haven't seen. Certainly unlikely.

[MVP2110]

I could see him coming back at the end year of the season to pitch out of the bullpen. Him starting this season at all seems unlikely

[markedman5]

 

[Brewcrew82]

Man if he can stick as a starter we may have gotten ourselves 6 more seasons of ace pitching for 1 year of an ace. Plus an Adames replacement and a 1st round draft pick!