Brewer win total in 2024 season?

[wiguy94]

18 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

My big concern honestly is simply the rotation, and quite honestly the bullpen. I think just about everyone is making a grand assumption that the bullpen is going to be good because it's always good and we didn't really lose anyone(except Williams). Bullpen pitchers are far too volatile to simply assume that all of Payamps, Megill, Peguero, etc are going to be as good or better than they were last year. Also, I'm probably as anti-Counsell as anyone on this board...but his absolute greatest strength as a manager was long term bullpen management. Will Murphy do as good a job? Maybe?

The bullpen is a big thing that people are glossing over. I agree with that. I've been saying all offseason that by ERA/FIP/WAR the bullpen could be identical to last year, but the likelihood they match the 2023 season of high leverage clutch pitching is pretty darn low and that was before DW was set to miss half the year. Brewers bullpen WPA of 11.73 last season was the 5th highest in the 21st century so 5th best out of 720 seasons. Replicating that even with DW would have been incredibly difficult.

[owbc]

Agree that they are the easiest over in baseball. My main fear is that the Counsell effect was real and they are going to suffer without him around while the Cubs thrive. My second fear is that the Reds reach their potential. 

Opening week is a time for optimism, not fear. 88 wins and a division title is my prediction. Chourio has a huge second half to win ROY. 

[KeithStone53151]

46 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

The bullpen is a big thing that people are glossing over. I agree with that. I've been saying all offseason that by ERA/FIP/WAR the bullpen could be identical to last year, but the likelihood they match the 2023 season of high leverage clutch pitching is pretty darn low and that was before DW was set to miss half the year. Brewers bullpen WPA of 11.73 last season was the 5th highest in the 21st century so 5th best out of 720 seasons. Replicating that even with DW would have been incredibly difficult.

In addition, Brewers had the 8th fewest innings covered by the bullpen. Smart money is on the bullpen needing to cover more innings this year. And additionally factor in Williams missing 3 months.

[wiguy94]

26 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

In addition, Brewers had the 8th fewest innings covered by the bullpen. Smart money is on the bullpen needing to cover more innings this year. And additionally factor in Williams missing 3 months.

I think that could be a very noisy stat. The Brewers only used an opener 2 times last year. I don't know how common openers were for the rest of the league, but that could lead to a big gap in IP. Brewers used an opener 2 times in 2023. If a different team used an opener 10 times that's around 30 more "RP" innings that aren't necessarily pitched by the bullpen.

[Frisbee Slider]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

I think that could be a very noisy stat.

I also don’t recall our starters getting chased before the 5th inning very often in 2023.

[RightFieldCoder]

I'll say 75 wins. Not all of the youngsters hit so we end up selling small pieces (like the bullprn) at the deadline. This leads to a bad Sept record.

[HarveysWBs]

4 hours ago, owbc said:

Agree that they are the easiest over in baseball. My main fear is that the Counsell effect was real and they are going to suffer without him around while the Cubs thrive. My second fear is that the Reds reach their potential. 

Opening week is a time for optimism, not fear. 88 wins and a division title is my prediction. Chourio has a huge second half to win ROY. 

I also agree with betting the over. And I’m actually not all that worried about the drop off from Counsell to Murphy. I think his experience, especially with this group, will keep things on a more or less even keel.

My biggest worry is that someone in the division has a huge lead by the trade deadline and the brass sells off to stockpile just a little more for 2025-2032. A .500 team that sees some veteran pieces (Adames, Hoskins, maybe even Contreras?) shipped out could be devastating in the short term, and the bottom might fall out for the second half. Apart from injuries, that’s worst case scenario for 2024, in my mind.

But, as you say, spring is the time for optimism. Put me down for 86 wins and a wild card berth. And they finish ahead of the Cubs.

[yourout]

Heart says 82.

Head says 77.

[RedStickBrew]

2 minutes ago, yourout said:

Heart says 82.

Head says 77.

Always go with your heart 

[brewcrewdue80]

With the Mitchell injury and Williams injury. It's dramatic loss with Williams.  Without a solid start to this season, meaning finding a consistent closer. That has potential -8game swing using someone else.

Now what does FO do?  They aren't buying at deadline. Reason to sell Williams return. You are about to lose more 9th inning games. No Burnes. Has Miley injured himself already?

I'm going at 77-85. Williams is the MVP for late inning with Hader being close. I've softened on Uribe because pitching 9th innings was not supposed to be needed right now. Now he can be called upon and yeah 8 games Williams being injured imo cost.

The W/L is so variable depending on trade deadline direction. They buy its over 80 easy. But this start to the injuries has below 80 easy due to selling.

[superfly]

77. One injury away from an absolute hellscape with starters, and nothing done at all to address it.

[Brewcrew82]

I think people/national media have really been overstating some of our losses....

Counsell is just a manager. The processes behind the on-field decisions of the last 8 years remain. They'll simply be executed by a different person.

Woodruff barely pitched last year. Burnes and Peralta all had ERAs over 4 until July. We were reliant on Julio Teheran and co. holding the fort down for a huge chunk of the year.

Williams is dominant and hard to replace, but we also have perhaps the most bullpen depth of any team in the NL. I think a committee approach could work very well. 

Meanwhile, our position player group is significantly improved and has a ton of upside. Hoskins gives us some serious thump that we sorely lacked last year. Adames looks primed for a huge contract year. Chourio and Frelick are electric, with more to come from AAA/AA. 

Defense should continue to be stellar and help our pitchers to outperform their peripherals.

The two main things I worry about are innings coverage and the bullpen wearing down. We're going to have to win in a different way this year. Starting pitchers aren't going to be going as long which is going to put increased pressure on the bullpen, which will be lacking Devin for the first few months. Will our starting pitchers be able to cover enough innings to prevent the bullpen from wearing down too soon? If Peralta ever goes down for a significant chunk of time, we're in real trouble...

I was pretty spot on last year as they just surpassed my prediction of 90 wins. This year, I'm going to predict 84-78, with the team being in contention until the final week of the season. I'm not expecting the postseason, but I really think they'll surprise a lot of people with how fun they are to watch. Kind of similar to the 2017 team. Except I think the coming years will be even better than the stretch we're just coming out of due to the improved hitting talent we're churning out of our farm system. 

[Oxy]

85. WS championship still within reach.

[nate82]

85 wins and 2nd in the NL Central no playoffs and no major trades.

[BruisedCrew]

78 wins. 

Way too many holes and question marks for me to expect more. 

[Lathund]

13 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

With the Mitchell injury and Williams injury. It's dramatic loss with Williams.  Without a solid start to this season, meaning finding a consistent closer. That has potential -8game swing using someone else.

Now what does FO do?  They aren't buying at deadline. Reason to sell Williams return. You are about to lose more 9th inning games. No Burnes. Has Miley injured himself already?

I'm going at 77-85. Williams is the MVP for late inning with Hader being close. I've softened on Uribe because pitching 9th innings was not supposed to be needed right now. Now he can be called upon and yeah 8 games Williams being injured imo cost.

A closer missing half a season is not an 8 game swing, not even close. You're massively overstating the impact of 30 innings, no matter how well those 30 innings are pitched. 

[Frisbee Slider]

16 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

78 wins. 

Way too many holes and question marks for me to expect more. 

Just swapping Burnes with a replacement level starter? Plus, Devin Williams will be replaced with a less elite but reliable arm? 

[BruisedCrew]

26 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Just swapping Burnes with a replacement level starter? Plus, Devin Williams will be replaced with a less elite but reliable arm? 

There’s a lot more to it as others have discussed. Your disagreement is noted.

For one thing, almost half of the Brewers starts last year came from pitchers no longer on the roster. 

Are those starts going to be taken by pitchers who will cover as many innings and, as a group, be as effective as those pitchers?

With potentially more innings to cover, will the bullpen be as effective as last year, even without a proven closer?

Is the offense really going to be better than last year, and by enough to make up for what figures to be a less reliable pitching staff?

Lots of big questions and several unproven players will be providing the answers. 

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, Lathund said:

A closer missing half a season is not an 8 game swing, not even close. You're massively overstating the impact of 30 innings, no matter how well those 30 innings are pitched. 

I think I mention up to 8games one of the times I used 8.  Depends some on the teams who flip that win loss. Division teams that flip is 2 games in the standings. 4 times vs division teams you can say is 6 games right there(Williams probably has 1 during the time gone)

Scheduling has 21 games out of first 44 vs division teams. There won't be the #1/2 closer in the game. This team will be overusing its bullpen early in this season with the starters probably having hard time beyond 5 complete during this stretch.  I just have an early season pitching struggle with this franchise attitude.

Checking Williams last season. He blew 4 games overall-1 bs Cubs so on the season I consider is 5 games. 

Blown save 1 happened game 67. He carried a 90pct save rate. The rest of Brewers bullpen carried 65pct. 

 

[Diamond Dog]

Way too many Ks and low BA/OBP = .500 at best.

[Platoon Power]

75 wins.  

[brooks_quichenick]

84

[sveumrules]

Here are all thirty teams grouped by their lowest single season win total over the last six full seasons...

LAD (92) HOU (90) MIL (86) NYY (82)

TBR (80) BOS (78) CLE (76) MIN (73) ATL (72) LAA (72) 

STL (71) CHC (71) NYM (70) SEA (68) TOR (67) PHI (66) SDP (66) SFG (64)

CIN (62) CHW (61) PIT (61) TEX (60) COL (59) MIA (57) KCR (56) WAS (55) ARI (52) OAK (50) DET (47) BAL (47)

Whatever happens in 2024, the run of consistent success the Brewers have been on is pretty impressive. Six straight full seasons of at least 86 wins doesn't come around often.

I'll be pulling for a seventh straight.

[Samurai Bucky]

75 -- sorry for being pessimistic.  I was actually thinking 72 originally.

The starting pitching isn't close to what it was even last year.  They would have 2-3 solid starters and that was the foundation of the team.

There was a consistent closer whether it was Hader or Williams.  It is up for grabs, but I don't know if the "new closer," whether by committee or otherwise, will be able to put up the same numbers.

The offense has been doing well in spring training.  Hopefully that will carry over, although losing Mitchell doesn't help.

 

[Outlander]

Just not seeing success this year, trading guys off at the deadline as well. Adames will have a great year so that will be beneficial. 73 wins.