Brewers aquire Aaron Civale from the Rays for infielder Gregory Barrios

[Outlander]

18 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

So if it isnt keuchel getting let go (and I dont think it will be), who will be going to make room? Zastryzny is out of options and would have to be let go. That leaves Milner and Peguero as players with options.  Payamps is out of options and the rest of the staff has pitched too well to be considered.

Milner probably should be the one to be optioned but will have to do quick as he will have 5 years of service time next week.

[rickh150]

Super move…

TB saved 2.4 million and they get a low prospect they like? Sounds reasonable for a small market.

Brewers get a maybe quality SP for 2024 (and 2025 if they so choose for 4ish mil), don’t have to give up a top prospect, get him in early July, and possibly fills a weakness in the rotation. 

[rickh150]

And I guess Peguero gets sent down…

[Jopal78]

Peralta, Rea, Civale, Meyers, then it depends on who they like most after that between Keuchel, Wilson or Junis. 
 

Zastryzny is probably out but certainly Milner, Payamps or Peguero could use a rest/demotion. 

[patrickgpe]

Clarke DFA'd to make room which is no loss. 

[tmwiese55]

Works for me, pretty much the type of thing many here have been hoping for

[igor67]

Even moreso than his predecessor Arnold seems to be leaning into the boatload of transactions approach Baltimore kind of pioneered some years back. Recognizing that each transaction is a bit of a gamble, but really digging into those near 50-50 gambles seems to be working since they generally move on before letting them really drag on too long if they fail. This one seems better chances than that to help out in some meaningful ways.

[Fear The Chorizo]

necessary move to add depth to the rotation...hoping it's not the only starter added before end of July.

 

Also, why are the Rays still regarded as a team you "don't want to trade with", assuming they fleece people on every deal?  They're muddling through AL mediocrity and don't show any signs of that changing anytime soon at the moment.   I don't want to give Adames 9 figures to remain a Brewers the next 4-5 seasons, but that trade worked out pretty darn well for the Brewers.

 

[pitchleague]

Is this CC Sabathia 2.0????  😄

I think it’s a good deal, to be serious.  Both teams could potentially win this trade.  Civale could be turned around again—plus has another year of contract control—and Barrios could turn out to be somebody decent in a number of years.

 I like that Arnold was proactive about getting someone now rather than waiting until the deadline.  I wonder how long this deal took to put together….days?  Weeks???

[KeithStone53151]

This trade really does feel like Jordan Lyles/Drew Pomeranz moreso than Daniel Norris. Civale should actually be good, I've been trying to figure out why he's not good for Tampa and have a couple theories. The biggest thing that jumps out at me is his GB rate is down around 10 percent from low 40s to low 30s. I also noticed until 2023 he pretty exclusively threw his cutter outside against RH hitters and jamming LH hitters and used his sinker the opposite...effectively trying to tunnel the two pitches and have them break the opposite way. Starting a bit in 2023 but significantly in 2024 he's using those pitches much differently according to heat maps...and those differences are certainly leading to a lot more balls in the air. It also probably doesn't help that the reddest spot on his heat map for sweeper usage is middle middle...so maybe that should be the Brewers first focus. I believe there's a lot the Brewers can do to help Civale achieve better results than he has with Tampa. 

Edit - I should add that it's certainly possible his command within the zone is poor this year...leading to his cutter/sinker combo showing differently on heat maps(rather than an intentionally different approach). That would also explain all the middle middle sweepers.

[markedman5]

This just popped up.on my feed…….probably means Rays will ultimately win the trade……lol. 
I have no idea who these guys are………

 

[patrickgpe]

10 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

This just popped up.on my feed…….probably means Rays will ultimately win the trade……lol. 
I have no idea who these guys are………

 

I think this site used to be free but now its 25 / yr.  I think its just based on WAR

 

[edfunderburk]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

And I guess Peguero gets sent down…

Should be Milner … he needs to get right for later this season …  he’s been out of sync most of the year

[OldHeidelberg]

Civale’s last start was Saturday so he could be plugged in at anytime. Probably gets Wilson’s start on this Saturday? 

[edfunderburk]

1 minute ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Civale’s last start was Saturday so he could be plugged in at anytime. Probably gets Wilson’s start on this Saturday? 

I hope he starts in place of Myers on Thursday in Colorado & bumps Myers to Friday in LA

I don’t think most pitchers do well with an entire week off

[brewcrewdue80]

Civale averaging just over 5IP per start. Will take that these days.  The ERA jump is tied to HRs given up. Any reduction back to his career norms likely lowers him back to 4ErA. Hope he lasts vs the large group that's now injured.  +1 more season team control.

[Outlander]

8 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Civale’s last start was Saturday so he could be plugged in at anytime. Probably gets Wilson’s start on this Saturday? 

I just want Keuchel bumped from the Dodgers series.

[OldHeidelberg]

19 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I hope he starts in place of Myers on Thursday in Colorado & bumps Myers to Friday in LA

I don’t think most pitchers do well with an entire week off

That probably makes more sense, give Myers and Freddy the extra day. There is off day on Monday so they can figure out which 5 or 6 they want to roll forward with after that.

[wiguy94]

I'd phantom IL Payamps to clear a spot on the 26 for Civale and move Wilson to the pen. Hoby's peripherals are really good this year. Yes he had a bad June, but he's one of the most snakebit pitchers in the MLB with his ERA being 1.5 runs higher than his FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xERA. Milner had a .256 xwOBA in June compared to a .377 wOBA. So many perfectly placed gappers or groundballs that found holes and opponents had basically perfect sequencing against him to maximize runs.

[markedman5]

Yeah I don’t think it will be Hoby

[82brewcrew82]

Just now, markedman5 said:

Yeah I don’t think it will be Hoby

Not with Koenig down.  I'm all for a phantom "forearm soreness" issue for Pyamps.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I'd phantom IL Payamps to clear a spot on the 26 for Civale and move Wilson to the pen. Hoby's peripherals are really good this year. Yes he had a bad June, but he's one of the most snakebit pitchers in the MLB with his ERA being 1.5 runs higher than his FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xERA. Milner had a .256 xwOBA in June compared to a .377 wOBA. So many perfectly placed gappers or groundballs that found holes and opponents had basically perfect sequencing against him to maximize runs.

My initial thought re corresponding roster move was also a phantom IL move, and that the guy IL'ed will be whoever they feel could use a couple weeks. With Koenig out, I don't think it'll be Milner.

[jay87shot]

Solid deal, Civale should be a solid back-end starter with a ceiling of a 2/3 based on the 1st half last year. Barrios is a tough loss but by no means anything that hurt our organization. 

[Matt Breen]

Seems like a solid move.

I'm wondering if Wilson gets moved back to relief. MLB trade rumors did look at him - and some other relievers converted to starter.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/checking-in-on-2024s-reliever-to-rotation-experiments-july-edition.html

One big thing: 

"he’s run into troubles the third time through the order; in 45 such plate appearances, they’ve posted a Herculean .400/.467/.650 slash. Those plate appearances account for just 13.6% of Wilson’s batters faced this season but have resulted in 21.5% of his home runs allowed."

Basically they say he's better off in long relief - which may be the move we make. But we shall see. 

[Team Canada]

3 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

Keuchel wasn't bad last night truth be told. He wasn't terrible in his first start minus one awful inning. I'm sure you are right and I'm not upset about Keuchel being gone, but thats the truth. 

McCalvy's Keuchel article gives me hope that we shouldn't put too much stock in that outing.

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/dallas-keuchel-s-whirlwind-journey-to-brewers

“That first inning the other day, I was all amped up. Did well, but it was an out-of-body experience, even with all of the experience I have. Inning two, I thought I was going to settle in, but I let it get away a little bit. Luckily, I was able to corral it.

“Inning three, I was wiped. But I can’t tell ‘Murph’ [Brewers manager Pat Murphy] that I’m wiped in the third inning. So, it didn’t go how I wanted it to go in the fourth, but now I have my feet under me. I’ll be able to focus on what I like to do.