Playoff Opponent Options

[HarryDoyle]

Arizona will sweep us again if that's the matchup. We may get it to three games again San Diego or New York. 

 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

9 hours ago, thebruce44 said:

Don't you think they can afford more than 1 hotel room?

Switching hotels after this final regular season series would be smart. Do you think they'll do it?

[wibadgers23]

12 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

Arizona will sweep us again if that's the matchup. We may get it to three games again San Diego or New York. 

 

Atlanta would sweep us too considering we'd have to face Sale and Fried although I don't think the Braves get in at this point.  I think the Mets end up getting that last wildcard.

[adambr2]

Braves are just about down and out. 

They get a shot at the Mets yet, and they need a sweep. 

[adambr2]

Fears of Arizona are exaggerated IMO. 

We're barely a week removed from a near-sweep of them on their field, a sweep we probably would have had if Murphy lets Devin pitch in extras. 

Yeah, their lineup is great but you can get to their pitching. We'll have to be very tactical about our pitching and not try to get too much out of our starters. 

Probably a moot point anyway as the NL East 2nd place team seems like the more likely matchup. There is no easy out to hope for. The preferred matchup for this round was a bye and it doesn't look like it'll happen. So we'll have to play a good 2-3 games to move on no matter the opponent. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

At this point, rooting for the race to come down to the last day may be more beneficial than hoping for a specific opponent. With only one day between the end of the regular season and the start of the Wild Card series, having the Mets, Braves, and DBacks all have to throw their good starters and high-leverage guys would be a win.

So, easiest thing is to root for the Braves and against the Mets, and they happen to be playing each other Tues, Wed., Thurs. Beating the DBacks obviously helps a little at the margins too. The closer the race is, the better for us.

[BruisedCrew]

Any of the potential wild card teams would present problems for the  Brewers.

The two most likely candidates, the Mets and DBacks,have been the NL’s best and highest scoring teams over the last 4 months of the season. 

If it comes down to those two, I would prefer  the Mets just to have it be someone different than last year. 

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Any of the potential wild card teams would present problems for the  Brewers.

The two most likely candidates, the Mets and DBacks,have been the NL’s best and highest scoring teams over the last 4 months of the season. 

If it comes down to those two, I would prefer  the Mets just to have it be someone different than last year. 

The Brewers 3.49 ERA over the last four months of the season is first in the NL. The Mets (3.93, 7th in NL) and especially the Diamondbacks (4.69 ERA, 13th in the NL) have been considerably worse.

I'm seeing SDP at 64 W - 42 L with the best winning percentage in the NL over the last four months, though ARI (64 W - 43 L), NYM (64 W - 44 L) are right behind them before MIL (61 W - 47 L) shows up.

The two best teams - LAD (60 W - 45 L) and PHI (58 W - 48 L) - have been the worst teams among the likely NL playoff clubs over the last four months.

It's about as wide open as its ever been.

[BruisedCrew]

40 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers 3.49 ERA over the last four months of the season is first in the NL. The Mets (3.93, 7th in NL) and especially the Diamondbacks (4.69 ERA, 13th in the NL) have been considerably worse.

I'm seeing SDP at 64 W - 42 L with the best winning percentage in the NL over the last four months, though ARI (64 W - 43 L), NYM (64 W - 44 L) are right behind them before MIL (61 W - 47 L) shows up.

The two best teams - LAD (60 W - 45 L) and PHI (58 W - 48 L) - have been the worst teams among the likely NL playoff clubs over the last four months.

It's about as wide open as its ever been.

I started my “four months” on June 1 to cover June, July, August, and September.

In that period the Mets and DBacks are both 61-36 and the Brewers are 54-43. Their run differentials are 113 and 106 to the Brewers 69. And the Brewers are missing their best and most experienced hitter, who contributed significantly to the Brewers for part of that period. 

No matter where you decide to measure, the conclusion is the same. I don’t think either team will present more or less of a challenge than the other.  
So, I’d prefer a different opponent than the one that summarily brushed the Brewers aside last year. The DBacks might come in with a lot of confidence considering how they have bullied the Brewers at AFF the last two years. They also carry the confidence of advancing to the WS last year. 

[edfunderburk]

I don’t like any of the Wild Card matchups - Arizona, New York Mets, or San Diego

Our offense is scuffling once again & I’m still not confident in our starting pitching 

Our bullpen is premiere but some of these opponents are also strong there

Not sure who I want us to play in the first round of playoffs … I just want to avoid another quick exit

[82brewcrew82]

Comes down to the offense for me.  Not real worried about the pitching as I think they use the arms differently in the playoffs.  Not worried about who they play.  No matter who it is, that team will present challenges and the Brewers will present challenges for that team.  For me, it comes down to the offense and whether they can hit enough over three games against elite pitching to win two of them.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, edfunderburk said:

I don’t like any of the Wild Card matchups - Arizona, New York Mets, or San Diego

Our offense is scuffling once again & I’m still not confident in our starting pitching 

Our bullpen is premiere but some of these opponents are also strong there

Not sure who I want us to play in the first round of playoffs … I just want to avoid another quick exit

I think the Mets would be my choice.  AZ definitely not, they have our number, SD is loaded with talent but the Mets to me are the weakest link. 

[MoreTrife]

This is like the Pessimism thread and it embraces all my darkest sports thoughts. 

[Brian]

5 minutes ago, MoreTrife said:

This is like the Pessimism thread and it embraces all my darkest sports thoughts. 

We need to score more than 3 or 4 runs per game against decent teams and that would change everything.  I don't think 3-4 runs will cut it in the playoffs. 

[adambr2]

I know a sweep is always a tough ask but if the Brewers had won Game 2 against the Phillies last week, we'd be 1 game behind them AND we would have the tiebreaker over Philly. That one single loss swung it to 3 back and gave THEM the tiebreaker. 

Seems like they pulled away but that's how close it was to possibly coming down to the last game. Damn. 

[Underachiever]

What a difference a year makes. Last year, the NL had two playoff teams with an 84-78 record and a negative run differential. This year it is likely all NL playoff teams will have 90 wins and positive run differential. 

[MrTPlush]

The only playoff match-up that mattered was us versus no one in the WC round. We kinda blew that, so at that point I really don't care. We are going to have to win quite a few match-ups that aren't ideal to hoist the trophy. Might as well kick it off in the WC round. 

[Underachiever]

Mets-Braves season series is 5-5 heading into their series tomorrow.

-Mets win two out of three, they will be three games up with the tiebreaker, which is the same as a clinch.

-Braves win 2 of 3, they host KC in the final series, one game behind NY with the tiebreaker. 

-Braves sweep, they are one game up with the tiebreaker. Mets would probably need to sweep the Brewers.

Pretty compelling stuff in the last week of the season. The #1 seed is still in play in the NL, the DBacks are the third team in the NL WC race for the last two spots, and there are four teams fighting for two WC spots in the AL, it's going to be exciting!

And yes, I know that, mathematically, the Padres and Orioles haven't clinched their WC yet, the Padres can catch LAD by sweeping them, among other things. I just don't expect it to happen.

Detroit gets the CWS in the final three games. They can match Minnesota and KC's 12-1 record against the Sox, and go a long way toward assuring they make the playoffs.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Underachiever said:

What a difference a year makes. Last year, the NL had two playoff teams with an 84-78 record and a negative run differential. This year it is likely all NL playoff teams will have 90 wins and positive run differential. 

Far better than the AL race which is mostly propped up by the White Sox being a horrible baseball team. Tigers and Royals are 82-74. Twins are 81-75. The Tigers are 9-1 against the White Sox and the Twins and Royals are 12-1 against the White Sox.

Playing the worst team in MLB history 13 times is going to get 2 of those teams into the playoffs that probably don't deserve to be there.

[Team Canada]

We're all Cubs fans this week....

[Madhawk23]

8 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

We're all Cubs fans this week....

We're in essence 4 games back of Philly with 6 games to play. I really don't think it matters what happens in that Cubs/Phillies series.  

[Frisbee Slider]

Could the Cubs sweep the Phillies and we sweep Pittsburgh?

[owbc]

4 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Far better than the AL race which is mostly propped up by the White Sox being a horrible baseball team. Tigers and Royals are 82-74. Twins are 81-75. The Tigers are 9-1 against the White Sox and the Twins and Royals are 12-1 against the White Sox.

Playing the worst team in MLB history 13 times is going to get 2 of those teams into the playoffs that probably don't deserve to be there.

You have to beat bad opponents. The Rays and White Sox had their chances against the White Sox as well and didn't take advantage. The 6 teams behind the Orioles fighting for those last 2 spots are all pretty much equally mediocre.

[BruisedCrew]

5 hours ago, Madhawk23 said:

We're in essence 4 games back of Philly with 6 games to play. I really don't think it matters what happens in that Cubs/Phillies series.  

If it’s considered irrational to even think of the possibility that a team with an 8 game lead in mid August could blow the lead, it is really irrational to think that a team is going to blow a 4 game lead with 6 to play.

I’m sure the probability of the Brewers getting a bye at this point is significantly less than 5%.

 

 

 

[Underachiever]

3 hours ago, owbc said:

You have to beat bad opponents. The Rays and White Sox had their chances against the White Sox as well and didn't take advantage. The 6 teams behind the Orioles fighting for those last 2 spots are all pretty much equally mediocre.

I think Seattle, who went 6-1 against the white sox, would have loved another six games against them. Especially if they miss the playoffs by a game. And I don’t care about Seattle. I just think when the margins are this small, an extra 6 games against an historically bad team are nice.