Sell or win now?

[igor67]

I'm not opposed to swapping Hoskins for a more useful asset to the roster and playing EMJ to see how it works out. The defense advantage of EMJ helps the projection and unexpectedly improving the team defense might help a bit.

[endaround]

13 hours ago, JosephC said:

I don't see the Brewers offering any player a qualifying offer.  I'm not an arbitration specialist, but it looks like the Brewers would already be in the 80 millions when looking at salaries plus buyouts, and last year the qualifying offer was 21.05 million.  If they offered Hoskins or Woodruff that, there is a reasonable enough chance they would accept, and based on the recent spending habits of Attanasio, the Brewers might not be left with any money for free agents.

Just looking at the math of what to expect as a return for players in their last contract year.  Anyone trading for Hoskins would probably be looking to get 1 WAR out of him over the final two months of a season.  Over the last 2 1/3 seasons (throwing out the year missed due to injury) he's been roughly a 2 bWAR/fWAR player, if you just ignore last year, he's roughly a 3 WAR player, so expecting 1 WAR over 1/3 a season is completely reasonable.  1 WAR = 8 million in value.  His contract for this year is 18 million, 1/3 of the season is 6 million (Milwaukee is stuck with the mutual option buyout).  8 million - 6 million = 2 million of surplus value.  I doubt if that even gives them a prospect in the top 20 of some team's prospect list.

Quintana's fWAR makes him look like a really mediocre pitcher, his bWAR makes him look like a #2 starter.  If you take the average, he's been a 1.7 bWAR/fWAR player over the last 2 1/3 seasons, so the "unbiased" expectation over the last 2 months of the season would be 0.6 WAR.  0.6 * 8 million = 4.8 million in value.  1/3 of his salary would only be 0.67 million, so there is 4.13 million in surplus value there.  If the Brewers push his mutual option buyout on the other team, that drops the surplus value to 2.13 million which is about the same as Hoskins.  More than likely the Brewers eat that buyout and Quintana could return a prospect somewhere in the range of #16-#25 from a teams prospect list...or they could maybe opt for a couple fringe prospects instead (say a lottery ticket and an organizational filler player).

I'd actually put Civale as having negative value right now.  Luckily his best year, 2023, still figures into the mix.  But pro-rating this year out and then taking the average of the last 3 years, he's roughly a 0.9 WAR/year player.  So that's 0.3 WAR over 2 months = 2.4 million in value.  Salary is 8 million so 1/3 of that number is 2.67 million, resulting of a surplus value of -0.27 million.  I don't even see them getting a lottery ticket for him.  If a trade would happen, the opposing team would have to be desperate and the return to Milwaukee would probably be the definition of organizational filler (think a 27 year old that is pitching in high A that has about a 0.01% chance of pitching in the majors).

The only two players the Brewers may be interesting in dealing that would actually bring back a notable return are Peralta and Contreras.  Other than that, if I'm sitting in the opposing GM chair, I don't see a whole lot to get excited about.  

$2 million in a value is a FV 40 player. Or The Brewers could try to force the other team to take Hoskins' buyout and get a guy. Or both buyout payments and hope there is a bidding war and ateam is willing to do so.

Given every team could have had Quintana for a cheap I doubt there will be much of a market for an injured version.

Cortes if healthy would be an interesting trade candidate because when healthy he has been very good.  Its that healthy part that is an issue. Right now given the timeline my guess is the Brewers waive him come August after he makes a few starts and hope to get someone to pick up his contract.

[Jopal78]

On 5/25/2025 at 5:19 PM, LouisEly said:

1) Hoskins isn't a free agent.  He has a mutual option for 2026.  Hoskins is 8th in MLB among primary 1B in wRC+; he will bring something "decent".

B) Starting pitching always brings something at the deadline.  The question with Cortes is if he will be ready in time to show teams that he's healthy.

He won’t bring anything “decent”. At 18 million dollars this season he will still be owed around 6 million dollars in salary, plus the 4 million dollar buyout in his mutual option for 2025. His BABiP of .360 is fueling his career season. Most likely between now and July it will regress towards his career norm of .275 (league average is .295).

Sure there is a chance a big market club could covet Hoskins as the final piece, but at 10 million dollars for 60+ game, if the Brewers trade him without including cash (good bet) the most likely return would be minimal. (The Cubs traded Bellinger to the deep pocketed Yankees and in return received a relief pitcher they released in spring training)
 

Frankly, the Brewers would be better off in the long run, keeping Hoskins, making a QO and taking the supplemental pick if he leaves. It certainly would be a higher pedigree of talent than they would get in any trade.
 
 

[umphrey]

I feel like sometimes there is a gap in expectations vs reality of selling. It's not so easy to just gut the team and build a super team for 2027 to 2030. They probably just get role players and salary relief for everyone besides Contreras and Peralta. The Contreras + Peralta trade would probably be like 3x the Burnes return. Which would be a nice setup but it would gut the team and waste a few seasons from some other players like Turang, Frelick, Hoskins, etc.

 

Anyway I'm still selling Peralta at the deadline but only if the deal is great and we are very low on playoff odds. I think it takes advantage of our competitive advantage of good defense and pitcher development and it's a sell high. I also wouldn't mind an extension for him though. 

[Jopal78]

7 minutes ago, umphrey said:

I feel like sometimes there is a gap in expectations vs reality of selling. It's not so easy to just gut the team and build a super team for 2027 to 2030. They probably just get role players and salary relief for everyone besides Contreras and Peralta. The Contreras + Peralta trade would probably be like 3x the Burnes return. Which would be a nice setup but it would gut the team and waste a few seasons from some other players like Turang, Frelick, Hoskins, etc.

 

Anyway I'm still selling Peralta at the deadline but only if the deal is great and we are very low on playoff odds. I think it takes advantage of our competitive advantage of good defense and pitcher development and it's a sell high. I also wouldn't mind an extension for him though. 

They’ll trade Peralta eventually. It really depends on the players they’re offered if it’s this deadline or in the offseason.
 

Waiving the white flag by trading Peralta this July does have potential ramifications on ticket sales this year, suite renewals, etc. So the return would have to be clearly better than what they estimate would be possible in the offseason. 
 

There is no reason to trade Contreras now. He’s still years from free agency, having a down year at the plate due to injury and there is nobody behind him ready to start everyday in the majors. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

He won’t bring anything “decent”. At 18 million dollars this season he will still be owed around 6 million dollars in salary, plus the 4 million dollar buyout in his mutual option for 2025. His BABiP of .360 is fueling his career season. Most likely between now and July it will regress towards his career norm of .275 (league average is .295).

Sure there is a chance a big market club could covet Hoskins as the final piece, but at 10 million dollars for 60+ game, if the Brewers trade him without including cash (good bet) the most likely return would be minimal. (The Cubs traded Bellinger to the deep pocketed Yankees and in return received a relief pitcher they released in spring training)

Frankly, the Brewers would be better off in the long run, keeping Hoskins, making a QO and taking the supplemental pick if he leaves. It certainly would be a higher pedigree of talent than they would get in any trade.

I think Hoskins might bring decent value but only because the first base situation around the league is so dire. Lots of competitors looking at first saying "why do we suck so hard at this position?"

[Brian]

This should be called "the sky is falling" thread. You obviously want older veteran players. 

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/youngest-oldest-mlb-teams-ranked-by-age-bm03/

[Thurston Fluff]

Instead of trading spare parts for the future maybe we can trade some for better fits now. A league average third baseman for a league average starting pitchers seems doable. If he has another season of control it would be perfect. We'll still have a need for next season as some of our infielders will be on the cusp by maybe not quite ready yet.

[jay87shot]

I think we would all prefer not to sell because it means this team would be successful over the next 6-8 weeks. I think that there is a pretty defined line when we get close to the deadline, it is how far from the Cubs (or Cards) we are. With the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants and then the D-backs, Braves, and our division teams fight it out I don't think the odds of getting a wild card are great (possible yes). If we are more than 5 games back I would sell the 1 year guys and entertain quality offers on Freddy and MeGill. I do think that we should make some early season moves here in the next month of so that will turn some excess pitching into a 3B/SS option. I wouldn't really call that buying or selling if it happens in the next couple weeks. I doubt any of our 1 year pitchers have a chance to get us a comp pick at this point. With how well the young guys have pitched and Hall, Ashby, and hopefully Gasser coming back II do think that there will be some buying and selling if we are kind of in a similar position standings wise as we are now. Sell short term guys, add younger controllable players.

[Brewer77]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think Hoskins might bring decent value but only because the first base situation around the league is so dire. Lots of competitors looking at first saying "why do we suck so hard at this position?"

I just keep going back to the Mariners and how they’ve gotten 91 wRC+ from their DH spot and 85 wRC+ from their 1B. Maybe we could take back the Garver salary and get a good prospect out of it

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Brewer77 said:

I just keep going back to the Mariners and how they’ve gotten 91 wRC+ from their DH spot and 85 wRC+ from their 1B. Maybe we could take back the Garver salary and get a good prospect out of it

The Twins have laughable first base performance. The Red Sox are absolutely hopeless there. The Padres are trotting out Luis Arraez. Lots of teams that expect to compete could use a competent first baseman, it has been a weakness around baseball for awhile now.

[Snoebird]

Am I off base in stating that no team depends more on attendance than the Brewers? I also  believe that an early bailout to a season commemorating the life of Bob Uecker wouldn't be  particularly appetizing to ownership. Add a slugger for a quality pitcher whose departure would create a runway for Misiorowski's arrival, and hope that Yelich, Chourio and Mitchell can stir some season-long interest in this team. 

[JosephC]

30 minutes ago, Brewer77 said:

I just keep going back to the Mariners and how they’ve gotten 91 wRC+ from their DH spot and 85 wRC+ from their 1B. Maybe we could take back the Garver salary and get a good prospect out of it

I went over to the Baseball Trade Values site yesterday for the first time in probably a year.  Somebody had posted a proposed swap of Rhys Hoskins and 3B-Ben Williamson.  I think that would be the type of return that Brewer fans could expect if Hoskins is traded.  Williamson is seeing his first MLB action this year and has been terrible offensively.  He doesn't project to be a power hitter so he will never likely post impressive slugging percentages, but he could turn out to be a good OBP guy that projects to be a plus-plus defender at third base.  Personally I'm not for the trade as I see a bunch of 3B candidates in the Brewers system that aren't that far away, but this would not be a crazy swap.

[jay87shot]

18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Twins have laughable first base performance. The Red Sox are absolutely hopeless there. The Padres are trotting out Luis Arraez. Lots of teams that expect to compete could use a competent first baseman, it has been a weakness around baseball for awhile now.

What would a half year of Rhys get us? Him hitting .287/.387/.467 with an ops at 139 should get a really solid prospect but maybe last year and the missed 2023 brings it done a smidge. I would guess the return would be similar to what the guardians got for Josh Naylor (P Slade Cecconi and a COMP B pick). With 3/4 teams needing a bat really bad and not much available from the bottom 6-8 teams in the league a little bidding war could get a 3rd piece. I would guess if we are in a similar postion in the standings to where we are now or worse he will be traded. With Bauers, EMJ, and then Adams/Boeve/Wilken around getting a couple good pieces and save a bunch of cash is how we operate. 

[kestrel79]

Much too early to talk about selling. Let's see how the next month and half plays out first.

[Turning2]

On 5/26/2025 at 8:02 AM, ClosetBrewerFan said:

Its hard to believe Freddy will have a higher value than now.  This is his best year of his career and there is 1.5 years left on his extremely team friendly contract.  There is a good chance he regresses slightly or there is always the risk of injury.  If we are going to trade him this offseason anyways, why not trade him in-season when his value is greater.

From a roster building perspective, that makes perfect sense. But we can't forget the PR / optics and their impact on the bottom line. Hardcore baseball fans can recognize the approach of selling today in order to strengthen tomorrow. Most fans however are shallow, instant gratification, win NOW types. Moving Freddy signals to that type of fan, we're throwing in the towel this year. That translates to fewer revenues from tickets and concessions which exacerbates the situation. Less revenue makes it more difficult to be competitive obviously. It's a tough balancing act keeping a team in the black financially, and one I'm glad I don't have to undergo. 

[wildcat2237]

2 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

Much too early to talk about selling. Let's see how the next month and half plays out first.

I preached patience in April and early May. My hope was that the horses would come back and the Brewers would go on a little run and get some traction. 

Last week was it for me. 7 games against the Orioles and Pirates. Missed a chance to sweep the O's and lost two stinkers to the Pirates. 4-3 just wasnt going to do it versus those bad teams. Team needs to win something like 7 or 9 here at some point. 

The June schedule is pretty nasty, so I dont see it happening here the next 30 days. 

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

From a roster building perspective, that makes perfect sense. But we can't forget the PR / optics and their impact on the bottom line. Hardcore baseball fans can recognize the approach of selling today in order to strengthen tomorrow. Most fans however are shallow, instant gratification, win NOW types. Moving Freddy signals to that type of fan, we're throwing in the towel this year. That translates to fewer revenues from tickets and concessions which exacerbates the situation. Less revenue makes it more difficult to be competitive obviously. It's a tough balancing act keeping a team in the black financially, and one I'm glad I don't have to undergo. 

Welcome to the board!

[Turning2]

Someone previously mentioned a "light sell", and I think that would be the appropriate approach as well. The tricky part is determining what kind of move(s) fits that description. The other trick part is determining what the goal is on the return. What is feasibly possible to land in return that helps both now and in the future? They are not going to "fix" the offensive glut at both SS and 3B. They might be able to acquire a single piece to modestly upgrade either of those two positions and then hope that the other piece improves. For instance, could they find an everyday(but short term) upgrade at 3B, maybe somebody that could reliably hit .245, then relegate Durbin to a utility role AND hope that Ortiz can at least get back to his first half offensive production of 2024?  Could they land somebody like that with a Quintana + low prospect type move? I don't know, but that would keep the fan base invested. 

 

[Turning2]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Welcome to the board!

Have been lurking, decide to jump in. 

[wntrtxn21]

44 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

From a roster building perspective, that makes perfect sense. But we can't forget the PR / optics and their impact on the bottom line. Hardcore baseball fans can recognize the approach of selling today in order to strengthen tomorrow. Most fans however are shallow, instant gratification, win NOW types. Moving Freddy signals to that type of fan, we're throwing in the towel this year. That translates to fewer revenues from tickets and concessions which exacerbates the situation. Less revenue makes it more difficult to be competitive obviously. It's a tough balancing act keeping a team in the black financially, and one I'm glad I don't have to undergo. 

I don't think you're giving Brewer fans enough credit. IF the return was for immediate longer term offensive help, IF the return was for prospects in A-A+ I think you would be spot on. If the trade brought some of the offensive help they need, I believe almost all fans would understand. They realize the Crew is going nowhere this year.  I think fans would turn out to  see some of the exciting younger guys and a better offense. 

[duewizard]

3 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

Much too early to talk about selling. Let's see how the next month and half plays out first.

Agreed. Unless an offer that cannot be refused magically appears, I think we need to wait until early July to decide.

[Snoebird]

2 hours ago, Turning2 said:

From a roster building perspective, that makes perfect sense. But we can't forget the PR / optics and their impact on the bottom line. Hardcore baseball fans can recognize the approach of selling today in order to strengthen tomorrow. Most fans however are shallow, instant gratification, win NOW types. Moving Freddy signals to that type of fan, we're throwing in the towel this year. That translates to fewer revenues from tickets and concessions which exacerbates the situation. Less revenue makes it more difficult to be competitive obviously. It's a tough balancing act keeping a team in the black financially, and one I'm glad I don't have to undergo. 

If what comes back in a Peralta trade is a slugger who can help the team this year and beyond -- and allow Jacob Misiorowski to join the rotation -- I don't think fans would have a problem with that, nor should they. Strengthening the core lineup is Job 1 right now and will be until the next wave of prospects establish themselves. Not enough attention has been given to the loss of William Contreras' slugging ability due to his broken finger.

[Turning2]

2 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I don't think you're giving Brewer fans enough credit. IF the return was for immediate longer term offensive help, IF the return was for prospects in A-A+ I think you would be spot on. If the trade brought some of the offensive help they need, I believe almost all fans would understand. They realize the Crew is going nowhere this year.  I think fans would turn out to  see some of the exciting younger guys and a better offense. 

True, I maintain a low regard for the baseball acumen of the average fan. Anybody that seeks out a forum like this, and posts to it regularly, is already far more credible than the average fan in my mind.

To your point about trade value, I have no disagreement. However, I don't think it is a feasible scenario depending on your definition of "immediate longer term offensive help". My version of that is a 1-2 year guy who could be penciled in day one after the trade at 3B, and be legit expected to hit 12-15 HRs the rest of the season and around .265 or better... AND be affordable for the Brewers small market constraints. I'd take that in a heartbeat too, but nobody is going to offer that kind of hitter for Perralta, Quintana, or Civale. In the perfect situation, you might get that in return for Hoskins, but then MKE is guaranteed a hole at 1B for the next couple of years. I'm not a casual fan, but even I am not interested at this point in A - A+ prospects from trades. The Brewers already have a crowded farm system overpopulated with exciting prospects. They need proven MLB quality hitters right now, and they're not likely to acquire them in selling. Durbin was that A - A+ prospect, and he's a high quality utility player, but he's not the thumper they need more of. Moving Perralta for another "Durbin" (who I do like BTW) would be a poorly timed, negative PR optic in my view. 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, Snoebird said:

If what comes back in a Peralta trade is a slugger who can help the team this year and beyond -- and allow Jacob Misiorowski to join the rotation -- I don't think fans would have a problem with that, nor should they.

Agree in principle.  I just don't think that competing teams are going to want to part with a slugger who is ML-ready at the deadline; I think most teams would want to keep that player in case of injury or to have as a bench bat in the playoffs.  Most likely, teams would be willing to give up players who are at least a year away from being ML-ready at the deadline, and more willing to give up ML-ready players in the offseason.  I'm sure there are exceptions, I'm just generally speaking.