Sell or win now?

[JosephC]

If the Brewers become buyers, I see a reunion with Luis Urias as a pretty reasonable type acquisition.  Urias is batting .252/.338/.423/.761 this season and is on pace for a 2.1 bWAR or 1.5 fWAR season.  He's mostly played 2B/SS this year, but still has played the most MLB innings at 3B and is a career +10 DRS as a third baseman.  He is a free agent after this season and that minor league team in Sacramento will almost certainly be open to dealing him.  His salary for the season is only 1.1 million, along with performance bonuses of 150K for reaching plate appearance milestones (200, 300, 350, 400, 500), so he is on pace to make 1.7 million.  He did next to nothing in 2023 and 2024 which should keep the price-tag very reasonable.

[liveforoctober]

33 minutes ago, JosephC said:

If the Brewers become buyers, I see a reunion with Luis Urias as a pretty reasonable type acquisition.  Urias is batting .252/.338/.423/.761 this season and is on pace for a 2.1 bWAR or 1.5 fWAR season.  He's mostly played 2B/SS this year, but still has played the most MLB innings at 3B and is a career +10 DRS as a third baseman.  He is a free agent after this season and that minor league team in Sacramento will almost certainly be open to dealing him.  His salary for the season is only 1.1 million, along with performance bonuses of 150K for reaching plate appearance milestones (200, 300, 350, 400, 500), so he is on pace to make 1.7 million.  He did next to nothing in 2023 and 2024 which should keep the price-tag very reasonable.

This is a great find, I forgot about Urias. He wouldn't cost much either. 

What is Ortiz' options look like? I wouldn't mind him getting a full August of at bats down in a Nashville to just swing through his issues and then come back for the stretch run if ready.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You make the decision at the ASB. I am not sure what we have to sell though to be honest. Hoskins I guess.

[Underachiever]

I guess, if Luis Urias makes you happy, go for it. I know that no one suggested that it's a game-changer, but that's such a minimal tick upward it does nothing for me. I would just roll with who we got if it means giving up anything for Urias. And that is either Urias. 

The Brewers aren't a Luis Urias away from contending. The trade would have to be at least of the impact of the Adames trade. Give up something real for a significant upgrade. No, I don't know who that would be.

[liveforoctober]

29 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

I guess, if Luis Urias makes you happy, go for it. I know that no one suggested that it's a game-changer, but that's such a minimal tick upward it does nothing for me. I would just roll with who we got if it means giving up anything for Urias. And that is either Urias. 

The Brewers aren't a Luis Urias away from contending. The trade would have to be at least of the impact of the Adames trade. Give up something real for a significant upgrade. No, I don't know who that would be.

There are a lot of reasons why making a minimal upgrade any position in a season like this would be very beneficial to the Brewers both for this year and moving forward ... none of which have anything to do with making a deep playoff run.

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

You make the decision at the ASB. I am not sure what we have to sell though to be honest. Hoskins I guess.

Four years ago Javy Baez (OBP of .292, 130K to 15 BB, sub-800 OPS) and Trevor Williams (ERA >5.00) fetched Pete Crow-Armstrong.

I think many will be surprised at how much bats and average starting pitching will fetch, given the dearth of both of those.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Truth is that mediocre teams have won WS titles. Almost always, they can pitch. I don't see it happening, but it does, so I am always very hesitant to just punt a season away, even if you are mediocre, if you are technically a few games out of a playoff spot. To me, you always go for that spot if it's reasonable.

[Jopal78]

22 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Four years ago Javy Baez (OBP of .292, 130K to 15 BB, sub-800 OPS) and Trevor Williams (ERA >5.00) fetched Pete Crow-Armstrong.

I think many will be surprised at how much bats and average starting pitching will fetch, given the dearth of both of those.

No. You need to look at context on this one. Zack Scott (who?!) was the Mets GM for 7 months in 2021 and made that trade. Scott was elevated to GM when Jared Porter had been hired in November of ‘20 and quickly fired in late January ‘21 for sexting. Scott himself was arrested for DUI in August of 2021, placed on administrative leave and subsequently fired after the season in ‘21. This was on top of the whole Brodie Van Wagenen/Carlos Beltran fiascos. 
 

Despite being in complete disarray and without any real leadership, the Mets were themselves in the playoff race in ‘21 when a GM with little experience made a boner of a trade in retrospect . It is more an outlier than an indicator of what mediocre talent can reap in a potential trade. 

[wntrtxn21]

2 hours ago, JosephC said:

If the Brewers become buyers, I see a reunion with Luis Urias as a pretty reasonable type acquisition.  Urias is batting .252/.338/.423/.761 this season and is on pace for a 2.1 bWAR or 1.5 fWAR season.  He's mostly played 2B/SS this year, but still has played the most MLB innings at 3B and is a career +10 DRS as a third baseman.  He is a free agent after this season and that minor league team in Sacramento will almost certainly be open to dealing him.  His salary for the season is only 1.1 million, along with performance bonuses of 150K for reaching plate appearance milestones (200, 300, 350, 400, 500), so he is on pace to make 1.7 million.  He did next to nothing in 2023 and 2024 which should keep the price-tag very reasonable.

I could see getting Urias if the cost was minimal. Since he's a FA next year the A's couldn't be looking for much and at the very least he's an upgrade over Monasterio and Durbin. No he's not going to make a ton of difference, but he could be a good fill-in guy next year for not a lot of money. 

[RWeeksFan23]

I can't see us trading for Urias; we value speed highly, and Urias is one of the slowest runners in the league.

[Playing Catch]

On 5/27/2025 at 10:18 AM, Thurston Fluff said:

A league average third baseman

I hate to introduce a dead horse to this excellent conversation, but this is the rub, in my opinion. They simply don't exist right now. The position is either a clear plus for a team, or a clear minus for a team, much like first base, as Brock mentions.

If Durbin has a few more hot streaks this season, he could very well end up with "league average" production at 3rd, or at least, has as much of a chance of that as anyone the Brewers would be willing to procure. Ortiz, as a very talented defender, also isn't as far away as it seems. If Ortiz hits a couple homeruns this week, he will be tied for 16th most HRs in baseball by a primary shortstop.

[Turning2]

19 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I hate to introduce a dead horse to this excellent conversation, but this is the rub, in my opinion. They simply don't exist right now. The position is either a clear plus for a team, or a clear minus for a team, much like first base, as Brock mentions.

If Durbin has a few more hot streaks this season, he could very well end up with "league average" production at 3rd, or at least, has as much of a chance of that as anyone the Brewers would be willing to procure. Ortiz, as a very talented defender, also isn't as far away as it seems. If Ortiz hits a couple homeruns this week, he will be tied for 16th most HRs in baseball by a primary shortstop.

Agreed, not much out there for feasible upgrades at 3B.

Ortiz has been putting a few better swings on lately, driving balls hard right at somebody. He was in the .260's average wise (if I remember right) prior to his neck injury last year. He has shown he has the tools to be a competent contact hitter by today's baseball standards. I think people forget this is only his 2nd year. He is more likely to improve back into that range of hit for contact than continue to stay mired in the .180 range. 

Durbin is not the long term answer at 3B obviously, but he is providing adequate defense and his rookie bat is showing signs of improving too. An upgrade trade would have to be significant, and I don't see that happening either.  

. 

[yourout]

21 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I hate to introduce a dead horse to this excellent conversation, but this is the rub, in my opinion. They simply don't exist right now. The position is either a clear plus for a team, or a clear minus for a team, much like first base, as Brock mentions.

If Durbin has a few more hot streaks this season, he could very well end up with "league average" production at 3rd, or at least, has as much of a chance of that as anyone the Brewers would be willing to procure. Ortiz, as a very talented defender, also isn't as far away as it seems. If Ortiz hits a couple homeruns this week, he will be tied for 16th most HRs in baseball by a primary shortstop.

Need the old trusty Don Money type. 

😁

[TURBO]

If Urias wasn't a former Brewer, would anyone even notice he was playing at all?

I think a lot of times, people get hung up on ex Brewers because we are familiar with them, not so much as they will really improve us.

I'm out on him, too slow and nothing to really add that we don't already have.

Hopefully Wilken keeps improving, and he will be our 3B acquisition at the deadline.

[Redd Vencher]

22 minutes ago, TURBO said:

If Urias wasn't a former Brewer, would anyone even notice he was playing at all?

I think a lot of times, people get hung up on ex Brewers because we are familiar with them, not so much as they will really improve us.

I'm out on him, too slow and nothing to really add that we don't already have.

Hopefully Wilken keeps improving, and he will be our 3B acquisition at the deadline.

He's a rental likely to be available at a position of need that is one of the top performers in that group. A 117 wRC+ supported by solid under the hood metrics is not something we currently have in house. We've been getting a 42 wRC+ out of 3B this year. Should that continue and Urias could give a 100 wRC+ post trade, that would improve that positions output by roughly 60%. That a massive improvement.

[Thurston Fluff]

On 5/28/2025 at 4:37 PM, Playing Catch said:

I hate to introduce a dead horse to this excellent conversation, but this is the rub, in my opinion. They simply don't exist right now. The position is either a clear plus for a team, or a clear minus for a team, much like first base, as Brock mentions.

If Durbin has a few more hot streaks this season, he could very well end up with "league average" production at 3rd, or at least, has as much of a chance of that as anyone the Brewers would be willing to procure. Ortiz, as a very talented defender, also isn't as far away as it seems. If Ortiz hits a couple homeruns this week, he will be tied for 16th most HRs in baseball by a primary shortstop.

I think there are a few who can be close to league average overall. KeBryan Hayes and Maikel Garcia are good defenders with less than average offense. Eugenio Suárez is old but has been decent the last couple seasons and isn't bad now. Ernie Clement does a little of everything without doing much of anything great which is textbook average. None of them are eye popping but neither is half a season of Civale or Quintana. All of that is moot if Durbin can hold his own but my main point is not all the trades have to be for strictly the future. A stop gap for a spare part may help now and help bridge the gap until

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

He's a rental likely to be available at a position of need that is one of the top performers in that group. A 117 wRC+ supported by solid under the hood metrics is not something we currently have in house. We've been getting a 42 wRC+ out of 3B this year. Should that continue and Urias could give a 100 wRC+ post trade, that would improve that positions output by roughly 60%. That a massive improvement.

Not if we are giving up prospect capital that can help us down the line.

I refuse to believe that Urias would be that massive.  All those numbers you are quoting, do they put us into the wild card chase, win us the division, or propel us into the playoffs?

Not a chance.

[liveforoctober]

15 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Not if we are giving up prospect capital that can help us down the line.

I refuse to believe that Urias would be that massive.  All those numbers you are quoting, do they put us into the wild card chase, win us the division, or propel us into the playoffs?

Not a chance.

If both Urias and the Brewers SS/3B situation finish the season the way they started it ... acquiring Urias in the next month would add 1-2 WAR to the roster. Whether that gets us in the playoffs or not, who knows. Hopefully Durbin has discovered something and Ortiz finds anything and this convo is for nought.

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

Not if we are giving up prospect capital that can help us down the line.

I refuse to believe that Urias would be that massive.  All those numbers you are quoting, do they put us into the wild card chase, win us the division, or propel us into the playoffs?

Not a chance.

Justin Jarvis, Jhonny Severino, Cooper Hummel, Alberto Ciprian, etc. have really hurt not having.

He would be that massive. The offensive turnaround after acquiring Canha and Santana at the 23 deadline had the Brewers finish 35-20 post deadline. 

When we're getting such poor performance at the position a league average bat is a massive improvement.

[JosephC]

6 hours ago, TURBO said:

If Urias wasn't a former Brewer, would anyone even notice he was playing at all?

I think a lot of times, pe/ple get hung up on ex Brewers because we are familiar with them, not so much as they will really improve us.

I'm out on him, too slow and nothing to really add that we don't already have.

Hopefully Wilken keeps improving, and he will be our 3B acquisition at the deadline.

Brewers offensive production out of third base has been pitiful.

I had previously talked about a potential deal as sellers with Hoskins as returning 3B-Williamson from the Mariners.  I also talked about not necessarily being a fan of that as the Brewers have multiple 3B candidates in the pipeline, so picking up Williamson is not an ideal fit as he would have 5+ years of control at a position where the Brewers already have future candidates. 

Who would be a nice, cheap half-year rental?

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

Take out big-money Bergman and Muncy (club option), and then it's pretty easy to cross off Eugenio Saurez since he plays for Arizona, they were at .500 when I made the post regarding Urias (have lost 2 games since) and are probably not going to be jumping into seller mode that quick considering their off-season acquisition (Burnes)...and the list became a very short list pretty quick.

Redd already posted the wRC+ numbers, but to just put some even simpler numbers on it.

MLB.com has Brewer third baseman at = .176/.242/.262/.504

Urias in 2025 = .248/.336/.419/.754

Urias being a former Brewer has nothing to do with how I came up with him as a candidate.

And if Urias' bat reverts to 2023 and 2024 when he hit just about nothing (his .193/.324/.336/.660 in 2023+2024 is still significantly better than what Brewer 3B have done so far this year), you are only out the 1 fringe prospect that it would likely cost to obtain him.  

 

[SF70]

8 hours ago, JosephC said:

Brewers offensive production out of third base has been pitiful.

I had previously talked about a potential deal as sellers with Hoskins as returning 3B-Williamson from the Mariners.  I also talked about not necessarily being a fan of that as the Brewers have multiple 3B candidates in the pipeline, so picking up Williamson is not an ideal fit as he would have 5+ years of control at a position where the Brewers already have future candidates. 

Who would be a nice, cheap half-year rental?

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

Take out big-money Bergman and Muncy (club option), and then it's pretty easy to cross off Eugenio Saurez since he plays for Arizona, they were at .500 when I made the post regarding Urias (have lost 2 games since) and are probably not going to be jumping into seller mode that quick considering their off-season acquisition (Burnes)...and the list became a very short list pretty quick.

Redd already posted the wRC+ numbers, but to just put some even simpler numbers on it.

MLB.com has Brewer third baseman at = .176/.242/.262/.504

Urias in 2025 = .248/.336/.419/.754

Urias being a former Brewer has nothing to do with how I came up with him as a candidate.

And if Urias' bat reverts to 2023 and 2024 when he hit just about nothing (his .193/.324/.336/.660 in 2023+2024 is still significantly better than what Brewer 3B have done so far this year), you are only out the 1 fringe prospect that it would likely cost to obtain him.  

 

If we add a Urias I think it should be his brother Ramon, a much better, more consistent 3B. Consistently a 3 WAR/600 PA player and could be available once Jordan Westburg gets back to Baltimore from his rehab which is set to begin in early June.

Also controlled thru next year, which, imo, fits our needs better, giving Wilken-Pratt more development time. 
 

 

[Playing Catch]

I think if the Brewers were dead-set on overpaying for current production right now, the way they paid for Priester, Urias would be a good candidate.

I just think that many of us need to see a bigger playoff opportunity in order to start trying to save the season with having to overpay for, let's face it, a dubious track record, particularly with his not-insignificant home/road splits playing in that home stadium.

[torts]

WIN BABY, WIN!!!

[kestrel79]

Jake Taylor said it best. Win the whole *** thing.

Maybe this will be our year where we aren't the best team, but just the "get hot at the right time" team and we roll with it for Uke.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think they should sell, then win now.