Are the Brewers Peaking Too Soon?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Unpopular take here....  Probably because I've been demoralized most of the past 35 years as a fan (since 1991 for the TC crew & for my entire life as a Brewers fan (save a couple weeks in 2018)

Anyone else worried that we are peaking too early?  Loved Yeli's comment yesterday about the streak saying that the crew hasn't accomplished anything yet, and what happens in October will be what counts.  When you're coming back from 5-0 and 8-1 during the recent 24-1 stretch, hard not to feel invincible, but we've been red hot before, only to struggle when it counts in the playoffs.

It still doesn't compute that we've gone from catching the Cubs from way back, to almost now a 10 game lead.  Our team culture will hopefully make the difference this go-around, but I'm wondering if a little adversity over the next couple of weeks that takes things back a notch a bit maybe would be for the best so we can rediscover a hot streak going into the postseason like 2018, and so we stay hungry the whole way.  With the tougher schedule coming up, maybe this will align perfectly

My biggest fear as a fan remains that we'll clinch "too early", and having in essence the ability to coast the last 10-15 games of the year (and then some time off during the wildcard) might cost us that edge.   Constantly amazed (through the injuries) how just about everyone has stepped up when it was their turn to be the difference.

Let's go crew!

[gregmag]

IMHO “peaking too soon” is only a real thing if you’re expending a scarce resource. The Brewers have a schedule to play. If they’re playing a game, they play to win. Same thing was true of yesterday’s game; same thing will be true of tomorrow’s game. They’re winning a lot. I can’t see how that’s anything but good.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

14 minutes ago, gregmag said:

IMHO “peaking too soon” is only a real thing if you’re expending a scarce resource. The Brewers have a schedule to play. If they’re playing a game, they play to win. Same thing was true of yesterday’s game; same thing will be true of tomorrow’s game. They’re winning a lot. I can’t see how that’s anything but good.

Fair point... I just think in previous seasons (maybe this was the old CC regime that is now tanking in Chicago), we would play "not to lose" and were more worried about resting guys and avoiding injuries in the late stages of the season with a big division lead rather than giving it our regular go

[formerlybis]

The playoffs are about getting hot at that exact moment in time. I don't think being hot now or worrying about letting up if they clinch early is really worth worrying about. Give me health above anything else. 

[Gump]

2 hours ago, gregmag said:

IMHO “peaking too soon” is only a real thing if you’re expending a scarce resource. The Brewers have a schedule to play. If they’re playing a game, they play to win. Same thing was true of yesterday’s game; same thing will be true of tomorrow’s game. They’re winning a lot. I can’t see how that’s anything but good.

Bingo

[Baldkin]

5 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Fair point... I just think in previous seasons (maybe this was the old CC regime that is now tanking in Chicago), we would play "not to lose" and were more worried about resting guys and avoiding injuries in the late stages of the season with a big division lead rather than giving it our regular go

It's August 16th. 

[SRB]

My even more unpopular take is that I don't care all that much about the playoffs/World Series. It's a total crapshoot. This current run and the march toward 100 wins is much more fun IMO.

Obviously would be nice to win both, but I'd be much more satisfied with finishing the regular season with the best record in baseball.

[dlk9s]

No.

[owbc]

I would say they are slumping right now. They played so poorly that they almost lost a game. 

[da swedish german]

[adambr2]

8 hours ago, SRB said:

My even more unpopular take is that I don't care all that much about the playoffs/World Series. It's a total crapshoot. This current run and the march toward 100 wins is much more fun IMO.

Obviously would be nice to win both, but I'd be much more satisfied with finishing the regular season with the best record in baseball.

I guess this is more about enjoying the journey than the destination, which is a fair take. With that said, I can enjoy the journey, but if the destination doesn’t lead anywhere fruitful, I’ll be immensely disappointed. I can’t train my mind to think otherwise, especially after all the previous playoff disappointments. I get the mindset, but I also get the mindset of, what was any of this for if not for a World Series?

Should we exit in the NLDS this year, I will probably have a couple days of the “all this was for absolutely nothing” mindset, and once the pain of the early exit subsides I’ll probably have a more measured “it was still a really fun ride” mentality.

I say all this with the full knowledge that winning the ultimate prize will require winning 3 consecutive 7 game series’ against 3 of the best teams in baseball, and statistically the odds are still against it.

[Brian]

14 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Fair point... I just think in previous seasons (maybe this was the old CC regime that is now tanking in Chicago), we would play "not to lose" and were more worried about resting guys and avoiding injuries in the late stages of the season with a big division lead rather than giving it our regular go

I totally agree, CC's style was to play not to lose.  Always the safest thing to do, like a driving instructor with a nervous new driver. It's lack of faith, he doesn't even believe in his own players.

Murphy on the other hand, yesterday asked Monasterio before he chose Mona to bat, "Are you ready for a big moment" and Mona replied, "Of course I am I'm always ready, you already know that" Then Murphy put him in to bat. I love this stuff.  It conveys faith in a player and positivity.  Not CC's anxious, nervous management style. 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

7 minutes ago, Brian said:

Murphy on the other hand, yesterday asked Monasterio before he chose Mona to bat, "Are you ready for a big moment" and Mona replied, "Of course I am I'm always ready, you already know that" Then Murphy put him in to bat. I love this stuff.  It conveys faith in a player and positivity.  Not CC's anxious management style. 

Love this!

[Soupy]

So did the Cubs peak too soon?

[adambr2]

To answer the question, I don’t know if “peaking” is really a thing. You could have argued that we thought we peaked in July when we won 11 games in a row, only for that not to be the peak.

Will we lose more games this season, and even have losing streaks? I suspect that we will. But I don’t think the run we are on now makes it less likely that we will have success in October.

[BrewerFan]

17 hours ago, gregmag said:

IMHO “peaking too soon” is only a real thing if you’re expending a scarce resource. The Brewers have a schedule to play. If they’re playing a game, they play to win. Same thing was true of yesterday’s game; same thing will be true of tomorrow’s game. They’re winning a lot. I can’t see how that’s anything but good.

I would say... you've GOT to find a way to not pitch Uribe...and I might even put him on the DL with a... "calf contusion" or something. 

 

We're overworking him and Mears WAY too much. But short of that, who else? I'm also curious how bad DL's injury is. I didn't even hear of that. 

Short of that though... I don't know what the alternative is. Not play to win the game in front of you? We HAVE had plenty of games where our top relievers weren't available. We're starting Berroa a guy who seemingly has no interest in swinging and the oddest approach at the plate I've seen in a while...basically the little league version of 'maybe showing bunt will distract the pitcher,' on EVERY pitch before 2 strikes. 

We've got Chourio, Hoskins, Hall, Henderson all out, Collins and Perkins are out temporarily... guys are playing well and the other teams are committing fluke errors. 

I do not believe we've had a better shot in Oct if we'd have gone 9-5 in the last 14 though. I think getting that first rd bye, setting up your rotation, it puts you in a position where... you've got a shot. That's all I want. We're seeing right now how the game is so prone to fluke outcomes, but you can't pocket those for later. 

 

 

This has been the most fun I've had watching the Brewers since... maybe '92 and I was about 7 and watched about 1 out of every 5-6 games on TV. This is great. If they win or lose in Oct, it's not going to change the enjoyment I'm getting out of this team RIGHT NOW. 

[BrewerFan]

16 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Fair point... I just think in previous seasons (maybe this was the old CC regime that is now tanking in Chicago), we would play "not to lose" and were more worried about resting guys and avoiding injuries in the late stages of the season with a big division lead rather than giving it our regular go

I really think this is really revisionist.

We used to call it Craigtober. The Brewers on several occasions finished the season VERY strong and played VERY well down the stretch or to get into the playoffs. 

 

I also don't really buy the critiques of CC that he was "too tight" or playing not to lose. I think Murphy is keeping it light. I think that's easier to do when things are going well and I REALLY hate even the impression that I'm standing up for CC, but... we did lost any different with CC than we did last year with Murph. 

Got the lead and then lost late with a great player up. Alonso takes our AS closer deep.
Freeman takes Hader deep.
Soto gets a hit off Hader, Grisham lets it go under the glove(would have been a tie either way). 

The last two vs Hader and lefties who REALLY struggled against him. 

There was the AZ series in which we were absolutely scorching the ball with RISP and just hitting it right at people and they were blooping us to death. The....what other series did we lose? The Dodgers the 2nd time? Just felt like the better team.

The first loss vs the Dodgers, they hit Jeffress Splitter when he had a ~1.28 ERA or whatever that year for a big HR late in the game. That was the year there were rumors the Dodgers were cheating along with Boston, the Mets(there were some rumors about the Brewers as well) but the Astros won and were...so brazen about it. 

 

Point is, short or one game series, who knows... but I DO know looking at Mears and Uribe at nearly 60 innings already, Anderson should go 2-3 innings today and hopefully Quintana(I think...I haven't even looked) can go 6 and maybe Miller closes it out in a perfect world. 

In short though, I wouldn't mind watching them... after the Cubs series or today, watching them sit guys and give guys some rest. 

 

I'll hate it if it's a 3-2 game and Uribe, Megill, Mears are all down. But... that's my only concern at this point. Especially until I figure out if the Henderson and DL Hall injuries are "innings management," or actual injury concerns. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Soupy said:

So did the Cubs peak too soon?

The Cubs have the 2nd best record in the NL since the Brewers...historic run their own. Since they bottomed out at 23-26 or whatever it was.

That was still true a couple days ago anyway. Since that May when the Brewers were at their lowest. 

The Cubs have kinda fallen off, but for a while when the Brewers just blew past them, they really weren't to blame for falling apart. They just simply weren't GREAT. 

 

I am not a huge Twitter fan, but I am absolutely loving how the Cubs fan went from, "It's a fluke," to, "luck merchants," to, "what is going on!" to "they can't keep getting away with this! This has to be rigged," to "ah, screw it, we're not even playing for the division anymore anyway." 

 

I have told there has been rain in Milwaukee. I don't believe that's true. I believe the streets have flooded with the Tears of Cubs fans...and it's a beautiful thing(not the people who have had their basements flood, the...Cubs tears). 

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

To answer the question, I don’t know if “peaking” is really a thing. You could have argued that we thought we peaked in July when we won 11 games in a row, only for that not to be the peak.

Will we lose more games this season, and even have losing streaks? I suspect that we will. But I don’t think the run we are on now makes it less likely that we will have success in October.

I think this is where I'm at.  There are countless playoff graves filled with teams that were "hot" going into the playoffs.   I think this is just the latest invention by Baby Bears fans to rationalize why the Baby Bears aren't gods gift to baseball.  

[Turnbows Barber]

53 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

There are countless playoff graves filled with teams that were "hot" going into the playoffs. 

This.  I think it was last year (or maybe the year before) that Dom went through the statistics on Brewers Weekly and there was essentially zero correlation between how hot a team was going into the playoffs and how well they did in the playoffs.

[MadScientist]

There's never a bad time to win a game.

[James Zumstein]

When the Brewers were scorching white hot in 2011 right after the All-Star Break, an obnoxious Cardinals fan (and yes, I know that statement is redundant) I worked with told me that the Brewers were peaking too soon on a daily basis. I so badly wanted to tell him to jump in a lake, but what was even harder than listening to him every day was having him tell me how right he was in October when they knocked us out of the NLCS. I will probably carry that scar tissue with me for the rest of my life. As others have noted, the Brewers can't be concerned about peaking too soon, and neither should we as fans. We should be enjoying the journey, and let the chips fall where they may come October.

[Turning2]

It’s nearly impossible to judge such a thing. 

[RWeeksFan23]

I do know there was some concern throughout the 2010/2011 NFL season that the Packers peaked too early. Which they did.

[Oxy]

I agree with EVERYBODY in this thread.  I think the OP has a good point about a possible mental/emotional let-down to finish out the year if there isn't much to play for in the last couple of weeks as well as the issue of getting rusty sitting around for a week after the regular season ends.  Still, this is the best possible "problem" to have, and it is an unavoidable problem as has been pointed out.  It's certainly not worth worrying about.