Phillies at Brewers; Thursday, September 4 @ 3:10 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (2.58 ERA, 3.60 FIP) vs. Ranger Suárez (3.02 ERA, 3.04 FIP)

[treego14]

[adambr2]

Random prediction for the game: Joel Payamps plays a major role in this one.

[adambr2]

At 86 wins now, the Brewers finishing 11-11 would get them to 97-65 which would be a franchise record.

For that not to be good enough for the division and first round bye, the Cubs would need to finish 17-5. While a team winning 17 out of 22 isn’t out of the realm of realistic baseball possibility, they haven’t really looked like a team that is capable of that kind of a run.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

5 hours ago, adambr2 said:

At 86 wins now, the Brewers finishing 11-11 would get them to 97-65 which would be a franchise record.

For that not to be good enough for the division and first round bye, the Cubs would need to finish 17-5. While a team winning 17 out of 22 isn’t out of the realm of realistic baseball possibility, they haven’t really looked like a team that is capable of that kind of a run.

That is reassuring, but let's go 14-8 instead, get to a 100 wins, and make the Cubs go an almost impossible 20-2 to knock us off :)

They do have a pretty weak schedule over the next week.  If we can maintain our lead over the next 6 while the Cubs get 3 with the Nats and 3 more with the Braves, I'll feel pretty good up 5 1/2 with 16 games to go

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Not too many times that I've been glad to see Big Game W on the mound, but following his stellar August, this is an exception.  Given his consistency of late and Woody/Miz struggles, I'd be good with a Peralta (Game 1) and Priester (Game 2) start to the playoffs

[Outlander]

With Yelich sitting again would like to see Hoskins at DH against the LHP and his old team with Vaughn playing 1B. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

That is reassuring, but let's go 14-8 instead, get to a 100 wins, and make the Cubs go an almost impossible 20-2 to knock us off :)

They do have a pretty weak schedule over the next week.  If we can maintain our lead over the next 6 while the Cubs get 3 with the Nats and 3 more with the Braves, I'll feel pretty good up 5 1/2 with 16 games to go

I get it, but I'm officially done with the "weak remaining schedule" narrative being the main reason to be concerned about the Cubs.  Ive been hearing all about it since the all star break, when the Cubs were still a game ahead of the Brewers for the division and many were checking how close the 3rd wildcard spots in the standings was for playoff positioning.

 

2 months into that "easy 2nd half schedule", the Cubs have managed to lose 7 games in the standings headed into action today.  And they are running out of games to find a way to play the 0.900 baseball necessary to catch a Brewers team that is now entering a pretty soft September schedule of its own compared to what they've gone through since late July

[treego14]

Ranger is in Danger!

Fred will NOT go in the Red!

[Frisbee Slider]

Devin Williams ERA up to 5.60. It’s getting harder to imagine him making the playoff roster.

His K/9 is not too far from career norms. His BB/9 is better than career norms. HR/9 and H/9 are up. WHIP is same as it was in 2021. BABIP is .307 this season.

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I get it, but I'm officially done with the "weak remaining schedule" narrative being the main reason to be concerned about the Cubs.  Ive been hearing all about it since the all star break, when the Cubs were still a game ahead of the Brewers for the division and many were checking how close the 3rd wildcard spots in the standings was for playoff positioning.

 

2 months into that "easy 2nd half schedule", the Cubs have managed to lose 7 games in the standings headed into action today.  And they are running out of games to find a way to play the 0.900 baseball necessary to catch a Brewers team that is now entering a pretty soft September schedule of its own compared to what they've gone through since late July

I agree with all of this. Baseball, of all sports, is the most volatile on a game by game basis due to the number of games. Mike Heller was on the radio saying that the Brewers' remaining opponents were 7 games over .500, while the Cubs' remaining opponents are 65 games under. That alone isn't enough to evaluate. Is playing the last-place Pirates with Skenes on the mound more desirable than playing the Mets with a cratering Kodai Senga starting? Records would suggest you'd rather play the Pirates, but recent starter results would disagree. 

I'm still worried about the Dodgers. Record aside, season results thrown out, why would you want to play against that lineup in the post-season. I am sure that as the month continues, the exercise about who you would rather play in the playoffs would ramp up. I think it is a fruitless exercise, and has not served the Brewers (or their fans) well in the last few years. 

[Outlander]

I agree it is a fruitless exercise. Hopefully when the Brewers finally get a chance to compete in a playoff game there will only be 4 NL teams left, they will all be good. Padres, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, Mets will all be tough outs. 

[rluzinski]

BaseballProspectus projects that the Brewers will play .500 the rest of the way, takes into account the Cubs talent and easy schedule, and still gives the Brewers a 91.6% chance of winning the division.  Fangraphs 95.7%.  If the Brewers go 11-11, it's 99+%

[Jirsch]

Completely agree with all of this.  To break it down just a touch more, say the Brewers only win one more game in each remaining series and go a dreadful 7-15 down the stretch.  The Cubs go 13-9 to get the tiebreaker.  I think that's the only way they would have a chance to catch up.  As adambr2 said, I think worst case scenario for the Crew is .500 ball, which forces the Cubs to play .772 baseball the rest of the way.  For a Cubs team that has played .535 baseball since the All-Star break, that would be a huge step up the last 22 games of the year. 

[Playing Catch]

Let's just win today.

[adambr2]

3 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Devin Williams ERA up to 5.60. It’s getting harder to imagine him making the playoff roster.

His K/9 is not too far from career norms. His BB/9 is better than career norms. HR/9 and H/9 are up. WHIP is same as it was in 2021. BABIP is .307 this season.

While I wouldn’t want him closing games for us, I’d still take him in our pen. It seems like he’s had horrible, horrible luck. 

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, rluzinski said:

BaseballProspectus projects that the Brewers will play .500 the rest of the way, takes into account the Cubs talent and easy schedule, and still gives the Brewers a 91.6% chance of winning the division.  Fangraphs 95.7%.  If the Brewers go 11-11, it's 99+%

 Checks out that they would project us to go .500 the rest of the way, since they projected us to go 80-82 before the season. 

[Outlander]

17 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

While I wouldn’t want him closing games for us, I’d still take him in our pen. It seems like he’s had horrible, horrible luck. 

Yeah, does seem to have bad luck, FIP still at 2.95. Striking out batters and walking less than normal but hits way up.

[tmwiese55]

I saw something a few weeks ago trying to explain what's happened to him and my remembrance is a thought is that their pitch selection/location is messing up the tunnelling so its less deceiving as to which pitch is coming. Something like they where they are trying to locate each pitch gives it away which is coming quickly.  He might be mentally cooked right now regardless for this season, but it wouldn't surprise me at all that brewers coaching could fix him.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Jirsch said:

Completely agree with all of this.  To break it down just a touch more, say the Brewers only win one more game in each remaining series and go a dreadful 7-15 down the stretch.  The Cubs go 13-9 to get the tiebreaker.  I think that's the only way they would have a chance to catch up.  As adambr2 said, I think worst case scenario for the Crew is .500 ball, which forces the Cubs to play .772 baseball the rest of the way.  For a Cubs team that has played .535 baseball since the All-Star break, that would be a huge step up the last 22 games of the year. 

I think the shakiest thought or assumption in these if/then scenarios is that the Brewers playing a mere .500 the rest of the way is a floor or worst case scenario. 

I’m not predicting that the Brewers will play worse than .500 the rest of the way, but I think that if the Cubs catch or make a strong run at the Brewers it will involve the Brewers playing under .500, not the Cubs winning almost 80% of their remaining games  Something like the Brewers finishing 9-13 while the Cubs finish 15-7 to create a tie at 95-67  

Most of the most notorious collapses in MLB history involve a team that was sailing along suddenly running into a rough spot that turns into a significant slump. I don’t think the Brewers are immune to that kind of rough patch, especially given the state of their pitching staff.

[MattK]

2 hours ago, Outlander said:

I agree it is a fruitless exercise. Hopefully when the Brewers finally get a chance to compete in a playoff game there will only be 4 NL teams left, they will all be good. Padres, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, Mets will all be tough outs. 

Would be so huge to get that 1st round bye ... and dodge that extra series where things may not go right.

[Brian]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Let's just win today.

Correct with Peralta on the bump lets do it right today and get another win. 

Jackson Chourio (R) LF

Isaac Collins (S) RF

William Contreras (R) DH

Andrew Vaughn (R) 1B

Caleb Durbin (R) 3B

Danny Jansen (R) C

Andruw Monasterio (R) 2B

Blake Perkins (S) CF

Joey Ortiz (R) SS

 

[RobertCrawley]

\

8 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Not too many times that I've been glad to see Big Game W on the mound, but following his stellar August, this is an exception.  Given his consistency of late and Woody/Miz struggles, I'd be good with a Peralta (Game 1) and Priester (Game 2) start to the playoffs

Quintana will also be a good playoff starter. He won't wilt under the hot lights. He'll give up a couple of runs but that's usually it.  It's important not to let him go past 6 innings, maybe 5.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Caleb Durbin vs. RHP

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
270	35	68	18	0	6	35	18	13	35	9	5	.252	.325	.385	.710

 

Anthony Seigler vs. RHP

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
58	6	10	1	0	0	5	8	1	15	2	0	.172	.279	.190	.469

 

Can we please stop this platoon crap and just give the job to Durbin?

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

 Checks out that they would project us to go .500 the rest of the way, since they projected us to go 80-82 before the season. 

Makes total sense given that the Brewers are 16-4 against the other five division leaders.

They probably still think that Tyler Alexander and Elvin Rodriguez are still pitching for the Brewers.

[markedman5]