NL Central Discussion 2026

[RWeeksFan23]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Who do we see as the biggest threats at this point? Here is my rankings

1)Pirates- Their starting pitching is really good and the vet bats they have greatly improve the offense. I can see a couple injuries really hurting them but as far as upside it's the Pirates. 

2) Cubs- I don't think the Cubs have enough pitching this year. Losing Horton really hurts the rotation and after Palancia the bullpen is really weak. They still have the best top to bottom lineup in the division but you have to have the pitching. 

3) Reds- The pitching can be scary but right now after Burns (and Greene when healthy) the rotation is just meh to me. Sal Stewart is hitting well but they need 3-4 other guys to help that offense to contend.

4) Cards- They have been a surprise but ultimately they don't have the pitching to stay in the race all year.

agreed regarding the pitching of the Cubs, but they could always trade for pitching too.

[owbc]

The Cubs are the only team that I consider a threat to actually win the division. I agree on their pitching being weak as well, PCA has also forgotten how to hit. 

The Pirates are a nice story but aren't sustainable other than O'Neil Cruz finally having a breakout year. They have enough talent to go .500. 

Statistically, the Reds should be in last place, I have no idea how they have won 14 games. Somehow Terry Francona will manage to keep them competitive but I still see them finishing around 78-80 wins.. 

Cards -- bats are hot right now and they have won some high scoring games despite terrible pitching. As soon as their bats cool off it will be over. 

Predicted standings by the all-star break:
1. MIL
2. CHC
3. PIT
4. CIN
5. STL

[Frisbee Slider]

The Reds outfield has been jarringly below replacement level. 

[Team Canada]

I want to believe in Pittsburgh's long term potential, but we've seen this movie before. Until they can actually get into August without taking a nosedive I'm not going to worry about them.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

I want to believe in Pittsburgh's long term potential, but we've seen this movie before. Until they can actually get into August without taking a nosedive I'm not going to worry about them.

I don't know... have we seen THIS from them?

A rotation with Skenes, Chandler, Jared Jones coming back, Keller, Ashcraft, and then Mlodzinski? That's a really talented rotation with 6 quality arms. 

Cruz is a guy we've talked about trading for on here because... I think most suspected a monster season was bound to happen with his bat speed, exit velo and just underlying offensive metrics. 

I would expect Konnor Griffin to get better as the year goes, Bryan Reynolds was a good hitter the 2nd half of last year. O'Hearns is a really solid 1B. They have some power arms in relief. Wouldn't be THAT shocked if they were competitive and brought up Seth Hernandez... but everything would have to go right for them. 
 
I could pretty easily see them winning 90 games. As far as being "worried" about them?  

If the Brewers can get going, mostly get healthy and Yelly can get back and be an 800 OPS guy, Chourio I think was due for a big breakout and then Vaughn... I think he's legit, that's  a really good 1-5 in a lineup(Contreras+Turang) and I think Frelick will come around, Mitchell... has been pretty good. Rengifo I believe he'll hit. Just good ABs and some tough luck hard hit balls, but if those things happen, plus Priester, I think the Brewers are good enough and deep enough to win... but the Pirates are a scary team. 

[Ro Mueller]

Given the strong starts of all NL Central opponents, the key to this season will probably be our record in the division.

That means we need to be especially healthy from June 22 - July 12 (17 divisional games) and August 31 - September 27 (19 divisional games).

Those two tight periods cover 36 of the 52 divisional games this year.

[igor67]

Even with the balanced schedule it still seem really weird to have not played a single NL central team yet

[SeaBass]

2 hours ago, igor67 said:

Even with the balanced schedule it still seem really weird to have not played a single NL central team yet

Not just NL Central teams, they've only played two series vs. NL teams period with a series against yet another AL team on deck starting today vs. DET. 6th series against an AL team already. Such an odd schedule to start the season.

[jay87shot]

2 hours ago, igor67 said:

Even with the balanced schedule it still seem really weird to have not played a single NL central team yet

I think they did that last year as well and I know that a lot of other teams have similar schedules. My guess is it gets more division rivalry games later in the year and sustains fan involvement better.

[Jopal78]

4 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I think they did that last year as well and I know that a lot of other teams have similar schedules. My guess is it gets more division rivalry games later in the year and sustains fan involvement better.

…. And potentially helps sell tickets to early season games that are normally a tougher sell by having teams like Toronto come to town who don’t play in Milwaukee often. 

[Brewin]

In terms of scheduling MLB is very conscious of the the majority one time a year interleague series being early in the season in case of games needing to be rescheduled. It gives the league a lot more flexibility to make schedules work over a multiple month timeframe

[Team Canada]

11 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think the Brewers are good enough and deep enough to win... but the Pirates are a scary team. 

You're not wrong, this year could well be different. I agree they have great potential over the next few years.

[CheezWizHed]

18 hours ago, owbc said:

...PCA has also forgotten how to hit. 

I like to think that the Brewer's broke him in the playoffs. 😏

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

I like to think that the Brewer's broke him in the playoffs. 😏

I think he was breaking for most of the second half of last season.

[BruisedCrew]

I will be surprised if the Brewers are in first place at the All Star break.

The Brewers have built their 12-9 record with the help of a very weak early schedule. Only one of their seven opponents (the Rays) is above .500. Those 7 teams have an aggregate record of 66-91. That changes dramatically starting tonight. Only one of the opponents in the next 11 series is currently below .500, and that's the Nats, who have already shown the Brewers that they can be pesky despite being 7-13 in games against teams not wearing WISCO jerseys. The schedule includes series against the Yankees and Dodgers and dates with Skubal and Skenes this week

With no returns for Chourio, Vaughn, or Yelich in sight, and the bullpen and starting rotation unsettled,, this could be a very difficult 5 weeks. i expect them to be below .500 at the end of May, and a handful of games behind whichever division teams maintain their current pace. They very well might be in last place.

The schedule lightens up in June, so my hope is that the Brewers don't dig themselves too big a hole in May and can get the batting order, rotation and bullpen straightened out and be in solid contending position by the All Star break.

 

[Brewin]

I think that schedule argument is a little misleading (small sample size alert). I don't think anyone expects Boston or Toronto to stay under .500, and in terms of the upcoming schedule the Cardinals (x2) and Twins are likely to regress and be under .500. 

[Team Canada]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

With no returns for Chourio, Vaughn, or Yelich in sight, and the bullpen and starting rotation unsettled,, this could be a very difficult 5 weeks

I'm not quite sure what you mean. Yelich may well not be back in 5 weeks, but I would be surprised if the other two are not. Their returns are very much in sight within that window.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I will be surprised if the Brewers are in first place at the All Star break.

The Brewers have built their 12-9 record with the help of a very weak early schedule. Only one of their seven opponents (the Rays) is above .500. Those 7 teams have an aggregate record of 66-91. That changes dramatically starting tonight. Only one of the opponents in the next 11 series is currently below .500, and that's the Nats, who have already shown the Brewers that they can be pesky despite being 7-13 in games against teams not wearing WISCO jerseys. The schedule includes series against the Yankees and Dodgers and dates with Skubal and Skenes this week

With no returns for Chourio, Vaughn, or Yelich in sight, and the bullpen and starting rotation unsettled,, this could be a very difficult 5 weeks. i expect them to be below .500 at the end of May, and a handful of games behind whichever division teams maintain their current pace. They very well might be in last place.

The schedule lightens up in June, so my hope is that the Brewers don't dig themselves too big a hole in May and can get the batting order, rotation and bullpen straightened out and be in solid contending position by the All Star break.

 

What do you mean no returns in set? Chourio is swinging a bat, including on the field tomorrow, and is set to be back by the start of May....Probably the first week, which is only a couple weeks away. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Brewin said:

I think that schedule argument is a little misleading (small sample size alert). I don't think anyone expects Boston or Toronto to stay under .500, and in terms of the upcoming schedule the Cardinals (x2) and Twins are likely to regress and be under .500. 

I don’t think it’s at all misleading with respect to the schedule to date. 

It’s not always who you play, but when you play them, and in April the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals, Nats, Marlins and White Sox were all struggling. 

Looking ahead, the Tigers, Yankees, Padres, Cubs, and Dodgers are all playoff teams from last year that are expected to contend this year and are off fo good starts. Maybe the Pirates DBacks, and Cardinals will fade, later, but they are playing better now than almost all of the teams the Brewers played up to now, and they are getting the Brewers while they are down. 

I’ll put it this way. If the Brewers get to the end of May within a couple of games of the division lead, they could be in pretty good shape going forward. But it might be hard for them to get there. 
 

ETA- Murphy announced this afternoon that Vaughn has started swinging a bat. Apparently no word on when he might face live pitching and go on a rehab assignment. 
 

 

 

[BruisedCrew]

39 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

I'm not quite sure what you mean. Yelich may well not be back in 5 weeks, but I would be surprised if the other two are not. Their returns are very much in sight within that window.

 

36 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

What do you mean no returns in set? Chourio is swinging a bat, including on the field tomorrow, and is set to be back by the start of May....Probably the first week, which is only a couple weeks away. 

I had not heard that Chourio was swinging a bat on the field. That must have come out recently. The last I heard was that he wasn’t swinging against live pitching because they were afraid that a check swing  might rebreak the bone in his hand. So, I guess if everything goes well he could go on a rehab assignment and return to the Brewers after only missing a few more series. We’ll see. 
 

I have not heard anything about Vaughn since they said several weeks ago that he was targeting a mid May return.  Considering that he will presumably need a rehab assignment, and there have been no updates, mid May seems like a best case.

Many years of experience following Brewers injuries have taught me to expect that players will be out longer than the original estimates. 

if you recall, when the Brewers placed Chourio on the IL on Opening Day they said he was expected to miss 2-4 weeks. That 4 weeks is coming up the day after tomorrow. 
 

 

[owbc]

When exactly does the hard part of 

4 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I will be surprised if the Brewers are in first place at the All Star break.

The Brewers have built their 12-9 record with the help of a very weak early schedule. Only one of their seven opponents (the Rays) is above .500. Those 7 teams have an aggregate record of 66-91. That changes dramatically starting tonight. Only one of the opponents in the next 11 series is currently below .500, and that's the Nats, who have already shown the Brewers that they can be pesky despite being 7-13 in games against teams not wearing WISCO jerseys. The schedule includes series against the Yankees and Dodgers and dates with Skubal and Skenes this week

With no returns for Chourio, Vaughn, or Yelich in sight, and the bullpen and starting rotation unsettled,, this could be a very difficult 5 weeks. i expect them to be below .500 at the end of May, and a handful of games behind whichever division teams maintain their current pace. They very well might be in last place.

The schedule lightens up in June, so my hope is that the Brewers don't dig themselves too big a hole in May and can get the batting order, rotation and bullpen straightened out and be in solid contending position by the All Star break.

 

Only 3 of the next 15 games are against 2025 playoff teams. 

The schedule gets harder the second week of May but as others have mentioned we should have help on offense by then. Plus most of the harder opponents are home games. 

Then starting May 26 there is a stretch of 16 straight games against teams that missed the playoffs in 2025. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

When exactly does the hard part of 

Only 3 of the next 15 games are against 2025 playoff teams. 

The schedule gets harder the second week of May but as others have mentioned we should have help on offense by then. Plus most of the harder opponents are home games. 

Then starting May 26 there is a stretch of 16 straight games against teams that missed the playoffs in 2025. 

They aren’t playing the 2025 teams. They are playing teams that are going well now while the Brewers are shorthanded. 

[owbc]

1 minute ago, BruisedCrew said:

They aren’t playing the 2025 teams, they are playing teams that are going well now. 

They are playing the Tigers right now. The rest of the teams they are playing at a different time when they may or may not being playing well. 

I prefer to use the bigger sample of 2025. 

The Cardinals didn't suddenly get good this year.