1/4 of the way analysis

[jay87shot]

Today will be game 40, I think overall with the team getting healthy and on a 5 game win streak things are looking up.

Rotation- Overall the rotation looks solid, Misi is developing into an ace and Harrison has been shown top of the rotation ability. Sproat and Henderson look to be improving and both likely have 3 upside. Woody and Preister are dark horses that if we don't get anything from them we will be ok but are both going to start rehabs (again). Drohan, Crow, and Gasser look like solid depth and Patrick has been solid but unspectacular, however as a 5 he is more than serviceable.

Bullpen- After a rocky start they are shaping into form, with Uribe, Ashby looking dominate and Megill getting close to back on track the 8/9 seem in good hands. Hall and Anderson have been reliable and the rest of the depth hasn't let us down. Koenig, Yoho, and Rob Z offer depth and more upside.

Lineup- With the team at full strength the lineup looks much better and is forming into shape. Joey has shown some signs of life at SS and Hamilton has been possible at 3B. I expect Lara to come up relatively soon and pressure Mitchell and Frelick to get it together. At least with Chourio, Vaughn, and Yeli back there should be a lot more consistency.

Defense- By no means has the defense been bad but it hasn't been elite like we have become accustomed to. According to feilding bible Mitchell is at -3 runs, Bauers -2, Sanchez and Rengifo a -1. Nothing crazy there but Turang 5, Hamilton 3, and Ortiz 2 are the only ones above 1 DRS. I do feel like as the season progresses the past couple years some of the defensive stats for our guys improve. 

Season Grade= A- 

[DonBarclay]

5 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

According to feilding bible Mitchell is at -3 runs

It feels like there are some balls that Mitchell is no longer going 100% for to try to prevent injury. Those 10-30% type catch probability plays. I have no data to back this up, but in watching him, it seems he’s much less likely to put his body on the line for those balls. That would be great if he was still OPSing in the .800 range, but at .650, he needs to be a ++ defender to be an every day player. 
 

Something’s gotta give with Mitchell, and soon. K rate keeps climbing, walk rate keeps falling, and defense isn’t making up for any of the short comings at the plate. I agree with giving him a long leash because there’s just so much upside, but the trend can only continue for so long until they have to severely limit his playing time or consider a demotion. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers are doing Brewer things - which leads to sustained winning baseball.  Getting Chourio back is huge to improving the early season OF offense issues, and hopefully Yelich stays healthy.

At some point 3b/SS offensive weakness at the MLB level needs to be addressed if this team is serious about a postseason run - whether that's promotions from within or a deadline trade, it needs to happen.  Pitching-wise, you gotta hope Priester rounds into form and can be the innings-eater a deep but young rotation needs when we get to the dog days of summer - otherwise they're going to wear down.  Woodruff, who knows?  Love that Harrison and Sproat have rounded into consistent rotation pieces already.  Sproat still has command issues, but you have to keep giving that arm the ball every turn through the rotation.

[Frisbee Slider]

38 minutes ago, DonBarclay said:

Something’s gotta give with Mitchell, and soon.

-0.1 bWAR for Mitchell. 
.338 OPS in May (34 PA)

[cragi]

seems with Mitchell, once the book was out on him not hitting the high fastball, he's kind of fallen apart across the board. Maybe some time at AAA could fix that, but its going to be Ortiz-ugly if he stays up trying to work it out

[MoreTrife]

5 minutes ago, cragi said:

seems with Mitchell, once the book was out on him not hitting the high fastball, he's kind of fallen apart across the board. Maybe some time at AAA could fix that, but its going to be Ortiz-ugly if he stays up trying to work it out

I am FAR from an elite athlete but the "Mitchell can't hit high heat" thing is fascinating to me. If it is a known issue, can he not just spent countless reps in the cage getting fed high heat? Recognizing it, attempting to hit it, attempting to lay off, etc? Or just reaching the limits of his human ability? 

[Frisbee Slider]

Jett Williams with .890 OPS in May (34 AB) and 1.054 OPS vs LHP this season (32 AB).

Luis Lara’s results are better in May than April. 1.113 OPS against LHP.

Eddys Leonard still has 1.040 OPS this season.

We have outfield options in Nashville

 

 

[AdvantageSchneider]

That was before the game tonight when he struck out 2 more times in 4 plate appearances.  That's not going to get it done.

[Thurston Fluff]

Overall the Brewers are being the Brewers. Exceeding outside expectations and meeting ours. Mitchell may need to be demoted but I seriously doubt it will be Lara taking his place. As has been discussed in another thread putting him on the 40 man would mean he cannot play next season if there's a lockout. He's 21 and hasn't had an OPS of .740 or above for a season in his career. Obviously he's doing much better than that so far this season but given the other options available I just don't think the Brewers are going to take a chance of hampering his long term development for this season when other options are available. Churio is likely going to move to center with a combination of Lockridge, Bauers and some other player (Jett Williams?) covering left.

The only thing I think has to shake out is the back end of the bullpen. We have the pieces but I'm not sure they're in the right places yet. I think we might see Patrick officially move to the pen soon to add to the mix.

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Overall the Brewers are being the Brewers. Exceeding outside expectations and meeting ours. Mitchell may need to be demoted but I seriously doubt it will be Lara taking his place. As has been discussed in another thread putting him on the 40 man would mean he cannot play next season if there's a lockout. He's 21 and hasn't had an OPS of .740 or above for a season in his career. Obviously he's doing much better than that so far this season but given the other options available I just don't think the Brewers are going to take a chance of hampering his long term development for this season when other options are available. Churio is likely going to move to center with a combination of Lockridge, Bauers and some other player (Jett Williams?) covering left.

The only thing I think has to shake out is the back end of the bullpen. We have the pieces but I'm not sure they're in the right places yet. I think we might see Patrick officially move to the pen soon to add to the mix.

Lara is decimating AAA, he has is a gold glove potential fielder and 40+ base stealer. The potential lockout shouldn't be a reason not to promote the best player for the job. I get he hasn't shown power in the past but he has always had good plate disapline and bat to ball skills. 

.340/.436/.524    7 HR (12 xbh) 15/19 sb  23 bb 21 k's     With that high end defense and 172 plate appearances I don't see any reason to wait. Especially with Lockridge out and Mitchell struggling as bad as he has. 

[Thurston Fluff]

9 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Lara is decimating AAA, he has is a gold glove potential fielder and 40+ base stealer. The potential lockout shouldn't be a reason not to promote the best player for the job. I get he hasn't shown power in the past but he has always had good plate disapline and bat to ball skills. 

.340/.436/.524    7 HR (12 xbh) 15/19 sb  23 bb 21 k's     With that high end defense and 172 plate appearances I don't see any reason to wait. Especially with Lockridge out and Mitchell struggling as bad as he has. 

I'd rather wait for more than a 172 plate appearances before I deemed someone ready. Garrett Mitchell always had good OBP plus good power numbers in the minors in a far larger sample size. Look how that's turning out. I think it's hard to determine how ready he is just by the numbers either way. Like Mitchell and Huira before him it's whether there's a weakness that will get exploited in the majors. I don't know if there is but I think the best way to know if there is would be to let the league he's in now find out. Much like the majors is doing with Mitchell now. Jett Williams at this point seems like a much safer bet. Plus he's already on the 40 man. No need to worry about lockouts or roster space.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I'd rather wait for more than a 172 plate appearances before I deemed someone ready. Garrett Mitchell always had good OBP plus good power numbers in the minors in a far larger sample size. Look how that's turning out. I think it's hard to determine how ready he is just by the numbers either way. Like Mitchell and Huira before him it's whether there's a weakness that will get exploited in the majors. I don't know if there is but I think the best way to know if there is would be to let the league he's in now find out. Much like the majors is doing with Mitchell now. Jett Williams at this point seems like a much safer bet. Plus he's already on the 40 man. No need to worry about lockouts or roster space.

Jett isn’t on the 40 man fwiw

[Brian]

All teams homerun count ranked.  Brewers ranked #30 out of 30. Yikes! 

https://www.mlb.com/stats/team

 

[duewizard]

I get not promoting Lara but really Eddys Leonard should be on a plane to Milwaukee as we speak. Mitchell need to go to AAA and figure **** out

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Jett isn’t on the 40 man fwiw

I thought he was, my bad. I don't think it matters if the decision is between the two. Beong one year further along makes a difference. It does make me more inclined to want to wait to see what a combo of Bauers and Lockridge can do. 

[shanedog19]

Short answer to this topic...We have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball but not nearly enough offense to win a World Series. They'll either have to get offense from within with a minor league promotion or via trade.

[markedman5]

 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, Brian said:

All teams homerun count ranked.  Brewers ranked #30 out of 30. Yikes! 

https://www.mlb.com/stats/team

 

All teams runs per game ranked, Brewers ranked #5 out of 30. Yay!

Good thing MLB isn't just an HR Derby (yet).

[igor67]

Quirks of the schedule means Miz has started 9/40 games so far meaning just multiplying by 4 is an over estimate. But on pace for 204 innings and 320Ks, which would be the 40th highest total of all time for a season leader. Everyone else ahead of him either pitched in the 1800s or is named Clemens, Schilling, Johnson, or Ryan

[liveforoctober]

2 hours ago, duewizard said:

I get not promoting Lara but really Eddys Leonard should be on a plane to Milwaukee as we speak. Mitchell need to go to AAA and figure **** out

Leonard has been my choice for a minute now. I would have had him up here a while ago.

[Brian]

22 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

All teams runs per game ranked, Brewers ranked #5 out of 30. Yay!

Good thing MLB isn't just an HR Derby (yet).

In alphabetical order,. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 5/13/2026 at 11:03 AM, MoreTrife said:

I am FAR from an elite athlete but the "Mitchell can't hit high heat" thing is fascinating to me. If it is a known issue, can he not just spent countless reps in the cage getting fed high heat? Recognizing it, attempting to hit it, attempting to lay off, etc? Or just reaching the limits of his human ability? 

I think your last question nailed it. Everybody knows Mitchell can't hit the high fastball, especially the Brewers. There's something preventing him from getting to those balls, and given the amount of time this has been a problem, I'm starting to think it's just a limitation of some kind. He's too damned good an athlete not to be able to adjust at least somewhat; we're going on like four years of this being a problem.

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think your last question nailed it. Everybody knows Mitchell can't hit the high fastball, especially the Brewers. There's something preventing him from getting to those balls, and given the amount of time this has been a problem, I'm starting to think it's just a limitation of some kind. He's too damned good an athlete not to be able to adjust at least somewhat; we're going on like four years of this being a problem.

4 years but actually 1 year. Again, I'm not excusing the flaws but, because of the injuries, Mitchell just has had a different workload from his peers.

He has just over 500 career at bats in the major leagues right now. For reference, Brice Turang had just under 600 last year alone. 

His time with Milwaukee might be up if he doesn't figure it out soon... But to me he is a perfect candidate to toil around for awhile until he reaches 1200-1500 professional at bats or so and suddenly turn in a 3 year run of being an .800+ OPS player.

We need more production from his spot in the lineup. But I also am not on the "he is what he is" bandwagon with him considering his path thus far.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Leonard is out of options, right? So if he comes to Milwaukee he needs to stay here or be exposed. With Lockridge out & Yelich being a ? right now, Black also being an option...........I think Leonard was one of those deals where his best shot was making the team out of ST, and now that he didn't it's a little dicey.

I also get the feeling they'd like to leave Chourio in LF, which could further complicate Leonard being on the roster. That also gives Mitchell a longer leash. Of all the whipping boys on the roster---Rengifo, Ortiz, Mitchell, Frelick, Hamilton---Mitchell is arguably the most vulnerable, but it's probably going to take even more extended struggles from him for a change to be made.

[liveforoctober]

18 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Leonard is out of options, right? So if he comes to Milwaukee he needs to stay here or be exposed. With Lockridge out & Yelich being a ? right now, Black also being an option...........I think Leonard was one of those deals where his best shot was making the team out of ST, and now that he didn't it's a little dicey.

I also get the feeling they'd like to leave Chourio in LF, which could further complicate Leonard being on the roster. That also gives Mitchell a longer leash. Of all the whipping boys on the roster---Rengifo, Ortiz, Mitchell, Frelick, Hamilton---Mitchell is arguably the most vulnerable, but it's probably going to take even more extended struggles from him for a change to be made.

I think so, yes. He would need exposure to waivers if sent back down.

My whole deal with him is if not now, when? He isn't going to be a long term option for us, so his opportunity to help the big league club is now. Otherwise we are saying he is a "break glass in case of emergency" guy for us... which is fine if true but I feel we can utilize the asset better?

If he comes up and shows well, he has created a small trade value that could be capitalized upon if we need to send him back down. If he comes up and doesn't show well, he either clears waivers ala Greg Jones/Luis Matos or we lose him to a waiver claim - in which case he wasn't going to get another call up in that instance anyway and we will need a spot or two available for promotions to AAA as it is.

The only reason to hold him full season without an early season opportunity is in case we suffer multiple injuries late in the year ... but by then both Jett and Pratt will be the next in line for a RH hitting infield/outfield option to be brought up.

He is hitting well and we could use another RH bat ... we haven't hit LHP well at all this year. I feel like he can help and his opportunity to help is now IMHO.