Let's Go All In?

[tmwiese55]

I of course see the argument here.  But what's missed in the 'go for it' mindset is there is nothing that can be done to move them say 10ish% to win right now to anything more than 13ish% just due to the nature of baseball playoffs and the Dodgers existing.   Thus, there is just as logical an argument that true "going for it" is to keep being good every year to keep having the 10ish percent every year rather than sacrificing a few 10% years to get an extra 1-3%, but in return you get several 0% chance years.

Also, Brewers did go for it a few times. Sabathia trade, Greinke/Marcum trades, the attempts at the '18 deadline.  And one has to give a reminder on what 'going for it' can do. The Padres would currently have James Wood, CJ Abrams, and Makenzie Gore on league min deals, instead they went for it.  That said, no way MKE management is dumb enough to give up our elite talents, but then we can't be mad at them for it and act like they're not trying to win it all. 

Generally speaking, I like their overall plan of attempting marginal moves at deadlines that don't cost big prospects. But man, they sure have whiffed on several of those the last few years. Just have to do better at it.  And if things continue the way they have with RF, CF, SS, 3B you likely have to add 1-2 competent bats via trade

[Team Canada]

5 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

We get it, your rather enjoy summer with a competitive team then actually go for it sometime. I'll make sure you get a participation trophy. 

You can make your point without such dripping sarcasm and derision. It's ok for someone to have a different approach in team building than you.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

6 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

Use the 2018 Trade Deadline as example

• Acquired 3B Mike Moustakas from Royals.

• Acquired 2B Jonathan Schoop from Orioles.

• Acquired RHP Joakim Soria from White Sox.

I would say that was the last time they went "all in"

I don’t think that qualifies.  Did we get a couple bargain pieces… yes, but I can’t think of a single example (Since Sabathia) where we went for it and got a top tier deadline player.

that said, the reality is, that top tier players seem to be rarely available at the deadline these days.  I’m not sure if that is because players are traded earlier in the offseason with a full year of control, or more teams are holding out for comp picks instead of mid-tier prospects…  but regardless, as much as we want to go for a top tier acquisition, it just doesn’t happen that often anymore

 

[Lloyd330]

10 hours ago, Team Canada said:

You can make your point without such dripping sarcasm and derision. It's ok for someone to have a different approach in team building than you.

Well, its rinse and repeat with him.

[Lloyd330]

10 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

I don’t think that qualifies.  Did we get a couple bargain pieces… yes, but I can’t think of a single example (Since Sabathia) where we went for it and got a top tier deadline player.

that said, the reality is, that top tier players seem to be rarely available at the deadline these days.  I’m not sure if that is because players are traded earlier in the offseason with a full year of control, or more teams are holding out for comp picks instead of mid-tier prospects…  but regardless, as much as we want to go for a top tier acquisition, it just doesn’t happen that often anymore

 

Its the fact that some poster wont even do moves like this which is really annoying.  

[Lloyd330]

Look If you dont want to trade someone like Pena, Williams or lara for CJ Abrams - Thats on you, but dont complain when this team comes up short again. 

We have a glaring weakness on the left side - It needs to be address. 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

19 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Look If you dont want to trade someone like Pena, Williams or lara for CJ Abrams - Thats on you, but dont complain when this team comes up short again. 

We have a glaring weakness on the left side - It needs to be address. 

Totally agree that we need an upgrade on the left side.  Given how bad those 3 have been, an upgrade should not be that difficult or expensive to find.

arguing we don’t need an upgrade is one thing, not being willing to pay a top 5 prospect is another.

i would think most would agree we should bring up one/multiple of the kids in early June (past Super 2).  Give them a shot to see what they can do, but still plan (for at minimum) 1-2 2018 type trades to address the infield and most likely bringing in an outfield.

our midseason relief trades have rarely panned out, so I’m comfortable with what we have there.  Maybe move Sproat to the bullpen, especially as we get to the late season and don’t need a 5th/6th starter

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, Lloyd330 said:

Look If you dont want to trade someone like Pena, Williams or lara for CJ Abrams - Thats on you, but dont complain when this team comes up short again. 

We have a glaring weakness on the left side - It needs to be address. 

But my friend you are exhibiting hypothetical outrage. In your example above, you are upset we aren't trading Pena for CJ Abrams. How do we know that offer exists?

"Well Abrams could be acquired, we just don't know the exact cost and we aren't willing to go high at all..."

How am I to be upset over something I can't confirm? 

What if the asking price on Abrams, for us specifically, is Made+. The Brewers called and for whatever reason the Nationals are playing hardball with us and asking for Made plus an arm plus a low level top 30 ticket? If that is the price I would hope all of us are out on the trade. So why get all worked up on a hypothetical? Taking shots at folks who "just want a summer of fun" isn't fair when neither of the parties have details. 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

Look If you dont want to trade someone like Pena, Williams or lara for CJ Abrams - Thats on you, but dont complain when this team comes up short again. 

But what happens when we trade for CJ Abrams and still lose to the Dodgers because they are like five CJ Abramses better than us?

Current WS Odds on FanGraphs & PECOTA are 3.8 to 5.4% for the Brewers versus 22.4 to 23.3% for the Dodgers.

They could probably give us Ohtani for free and still have better World Series odds.

The Dodgers won 91 more games than the next best team from 2013 to 2023 and won zero full season World Series. It took them until the eleventh full season of their run to finally breakthrough after 162 games.

The Yankees have the second most wins in MLB since 2010 and have been to one World Series in that time.

When it takes the two franchises with more built in advantages than anyone else over a decade to win (or lose in the Yankees case) a World Series why would I complain that the Brewers haven’t done it yet over their eight year run going back to 2018?

Realistically this year will only be the third sesson of their run with most of the current group under Murphy.

[tmwiese55]

59 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

But my friend you are exhibiting hypothetical outrage. In your example above, you are upset we aren't trading Pena for CJ Abrams. How do we know that offer exists?

"Well Abrams could be acquired, we just don't know the exact cost and we aren't willing to go high at all..."

How am I to be upset over something I can't confirm? 

What if the asking price on Abrams, for us specifically, is Made+. The Brewers called and for whatever reason the Nationals are playing hardball with us and asking for Made plus an arm plus a low level top 30 ticket? If that is the price I would hope all of us are out on the trade. So why get all worked up on a hypothetical? Taking shots at folks who "just want a summer of fun" isn't fair when neither of the parties have details. 

Yes, right now WAS wouldn't even have him available with how well they're playing and hanging around the playoff race.  Or, to get him yea you might have to greatly overpay.

I guess it gets me thinking, a true 'all in' would be if WAS does tail off, like they should, and you pony up big time on the prospects and get him and Wood. You'd have both for a few years and they should fill the holes on O.  Think what that would cost though and all it would do is change your % of winning the WS by 2-5%.  While possibly costing you making the playoffs for a few years 6ish years from now, possibly giving a 0% a few times

[liveforoctober]

23 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yes, right now WAS wouldn't even have him available with how well they're playing and hanging around the playoff race.  Or, to get him yea you might have to greatly overpay.

I guess it gets me thinking, a true 'all in' would be if WAS does tail off, like they should, and you pony up big time on the prospects and get him and Wood. You'd have both for a few years and they should fill the holes on O.  Think what that would cost though and all it would do is change your % of winning the WS by 2-5%.  While possibly costing you making the playoffs for a few years 6ish years from now, possibly giving a 0% a few times

.. and making the move guarantees nothing other than it placates to the casual fan.

Last year Suarez was the prize 3B at the deadline and there were many here who were really hurt we didn't make the move to get him. He went to Seattle and struck out 1/3 of the time, hit below .200, and didn't return for '26 (Granted he did hit a few big post season home runs). Would we have beaten LA with him? I really don't think so.

He cost the Mariners their #9, #16, and #17 prospects. I know all systems are not equal but it seems a really good piece of judgment on our end that we didn't part with Marco Dinges, Blake Burke, and Tyson Hardin for a guy who was, by most accounts, outplayed by Caleb Durbin down the stretch. 

I would be willing to bet that a lot of us here would pay a really steep price for a guaranteed World Series trip and we would pay a really, REALLY high price for a World Series title... but those guarantees don't exist.