Tarik Skubal

[beekay414]

National media keeps pushing the narrative that we should make a move for Skubal. Or at least speculation that we should (Ken Rosenthal speculated and did the whole "it's not what they do" dance). 

That being said, we have more 40+ grade prospects according to Fangraphs than any system in baseball. We have another crazy interesting IFA crop of talent where another 40+ grade guy (Leanders Matos? Alexander Mercedes?) will come from in short order. 

If we're not going to spend on offense, and there's not much of a market anyways, why not try to shut down opponents in October? A 1-2-3 of Skubal, Misiorowski, Harrison and a 4th starter in a rested Woodruff? That's most likely our best avenue to a World Series berth. 

[beekay414]

Josh Adamczewski, Marco Dinges, Robert Gasser and Tyson Hardin for Tarik Skubal. Who says no?

Point being...use the depth and make a push. The package here is just an example. This is not a question for prospect nut huggers either. I get the idea as a franchise, I'm merely pointing out, as Ken Rosenthal so eloquently put it, we "have prospects on top of prospects." 

[KCBrewerfan34]

If they could get TS without trading Made or Pena I think you have to strongly consider doing it. Assuming TS comes back and shows form. 

[cragi]

yes, i think the move for Skubal makes as much sense for the Brewers as anyone. A third true "1" probably stacks us up quite well against the Dodgers in the postseason.

That said, nobody on your list is considered a top 100 prospect, and that seems unlikely.  The Dodgers and Brewers both have a healthy number of top 100 guys, and I expect any deal to require 1-2 of those types. A Lara, Williams, Fischer, Payne, Letson.. maybe even a Pena. 

The argument against by the FO is that the Brewers is still rising in talent and youth, so why sacrifice the future? But you'd certainly like to see this window of Miz/Contreras/Harrison/Turang/Chourio be used well.

[Madhawk23]

6 hours ago, beekay414 said:

Josh Adamczewski, Marco Dinges, Robert Gasser and Tyson Hardin for Tarik Skubal. Who says no?

Point being...use the depth and make a push. The package here is just an example. This is not a question for prospect nut huggers either. I get the idea as a franchise, I'm merely pointing out, as Ken Rosenthal so eloquently put it, we "have prospects on top of prospects." 

I don't think you're too far off here and I do feel like we can probably get a deal done with Detroit without having to include Made or Pena (Made for sure will be untouchable). One guy I could absolutely see them wanting to land in a deal with us would be Lara, and my real hope here is that Arnold would also make him untouchable.  

My best guess in a package that might get a deal done would be: Jett, Adamczewski and either Gasser/JDT.  

That's a Top 100 prospect in Jett, a borderline Top 100 guy in Adamczewski and a Top 15 org guy in either Gas/JDT.  I guess it might depend too on what the Tigers value coming back in return? Do they NEED to get a top pitching prospect back instead of a position player?  If so, then maybe you sub in Letson for Jett or maybe a Hardin for Adamczewski (not both though)?  

[Brian]

8 hours ago, beekay414 said:

National media keeps pushing the narrative that we should make a move for Skubal. Or at least speculation

Yes, MLB Network has brought it up twice already just today.   I'm always leary of trades right after a "procedure" removing bone chips from his elbow.  Skubal had some pain and clicking. 

[Lathund]

I get the appeal of Skubal, obviously. Brewers have one of the best rotations, and overall pitching staffs in MLB already, but slotting Skubal into the playoff rotation over one of Woodruff/Henderson/Priester still makes for a scary playoff rotation. 

Thing is though, it's just such a crazy amount to give up for half a season of anyone. The various proposals are similar to, or more than, what we gave up for 5 full seasons of Yelich (None of the prospects panned out, but IIRC Brinson was upwards of top 20-30, Harrison as high as 50s-60s, Diaz towards the bottom of top 100 lists. It was a quite hefty package at the time). I think the more reasonable package above, with Jett + Adamczewski + Gasser is going to be far too light, considering how many teams will be interested and driving the bidding. Maybe if the rotation was a huge weakness I'd be more inclined to do it, but I would rather use the prospect capital in separate trades for real weaknesses. 

My belief when it comes to trading is that the real value comes from either big trades for multiple years of really good players (like the Yelich move, or Crochet, or the original Sale trade etc), or from cheaper rentals. As a general trend that is, there will always be trades of other types where either side completely misjudges things. The long-term trades I like because the prospect cost isn't linear with the years of control (Partly for good reasons). You don't pay twice as much for the last full season as you do at the deadline for a rental, two years of team control isn't twice as much as one year. And in particular, 4-5 years isn't 4-5 as much as for 1 year. Simply because no trade would ever get made at that rate, and which is why so few of those trades happen. 

As for why the lesser rentals work, I see a few reasons. One is when you don't also need to pay for the QO return, if you're trading for someone who can't/won't be offered it. Another is that these players usually aren't stars who the selling team needs to be perceieved to get value for (to the extent front offices care about this). Instead their team's season is over, they just want *something*, and if it's a team that's not looking to rebuild, they might take a fringe surplus player or high-floor AAA guy. The value is just so much better. 

And just as a more general thing, I'd generally avoid bidding wars. Only the seller benefits from that. Skubal will fetch a king's ransom even under normal circumstances, where it might be worth it. But driving it up further, and it gets harder to justify. 

 

[tmwiese55]

Without the injury I'd probably have a fairly open mind since he's at such a difference maker level to really help the percentages.   But, with this injury there and that if he has any other flare ups with it that he'd be a moron to pitch again this season, I'd stay away.  Of course, any P can get hurt but once this starts happening it often lingers and in his personal situation he'd be really unwise to try and pitch through it and risk the contract if a TJ does happen from it.   With Det playing so poorly in May I assume that's why all of a sudden his rapid comeback is on hold, there is no reason to push it, especially for a new team he has no loyalty to.  What Sabathia did risking himself right before FA is a huge outlier, not the norm.    Note, he has had TJ one already as well 

[Brian]

2 hours ago, Lathund said:

I'd generally avoid bidding wars. Only the seller benefits from that. Skubal will fetch a king's ransom even under normal circumstances, where it might be worth it. But driving it up further, and it gets harder to justify. 

I agree, that's why the Twins Joe Ryan is a much better fit for the Brewers. 

https://www.mlb.com/player/joe-ryan-657746

[ecjimg]

Skubal is obviously  much better than Freddy Peralta, but Id hope theyd take Williams, Sproat and a few more 10-20 ranked prospects. Unless Williams is our 2nd half 3B. Unlike most teams, Brewers can offer quantity with quality.  Like others said, it doesnt have to be our top guys...

[Madhawk23]

30 minutes ago, ecjimg said:

Skubal is obviously  much better than Freddy Peralta, but Id hope theyd take Williams, Sproat and a few more 10-20 ranked prospects. Unless Williams is our 2nd half 3B. Unlike most teams, Brewers can offer quantity with quality.  Like others said, it doesnt have to be our top guys...

NO CHANCE we're giving up Jett, Sproat AND a few of our 10-20th ranked prospects.  Our system is so deep, you're talking about also giving up guys like Adamczewski, Adams, Payne, JDT, Gas, Burke, Hardin, Ebel, etc.  Arnold simply isn't going to ever give up three of those guys AND Jett AND Sproat for 2-3 months of one player.  No way.  In fact, not even the craziest of GM's (i.e. Preller) is doing a deal like that for a rental arm.  

[TURBO]

If we were talking about 1.5 seasons of Skubal, I could get behind giving up a heavy package, but for .5 of a season?

Nah, I'm good. 

Teams like us can't mortgage our future for one guy because once he's gone, we still won't spend the money on another guy.  We don't spend, which is why we have to rely on our farm to sustain us into the future.

[Turning2]

Not a big fan of trading for a pitching rental coming off an injury. On the positive, that might keep the trade price down some. I see the appeal, just would prefer a bigger bat 

[wiguy94]

They just had a segment on MLB Network going over hypothetical Skubal offers. The one they had for the Brewers was Williams, Lara, Letson. 

[SF70]

3 hours ago, Brian said:

I agree, that's why the Twins Joe Ryan is a much better fit for the Brewers. 

https://www.mlb.com/player/joe-ryan-657746

Another player in great demand that’s likely to elicit a bidding war — so no thanks. 

We don’t “need” Skubal or Ryan to win a title. We have the postseason big 3 with Miz-Harrison-Woodruff. Henderson makes a nice 4. 

Spend the prospect capital on HL bullpen arm/s.

[Turning2]

20 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

They just had a segment on MLB Network going over hypothetical Skubal offers. The one they had for the Brewers was Williams, Lara, Letson. 

Assuming health and if MIL was intent on it, I could live with that. Williams seemed like an odd piece to acquire and perhaps was only added to be part of a deadline trade package. Lara potentially adds an upgrade to Frelick and Perkins in the Brewers current situation, but do we need yet another small, fast, defensive guy who may or may not be able to hit MLB pitching? Do any of the big market teams trot out 5'7" outfielders? I'm familiar of Letson as a standout in the lower affiliates but seems like there are a number of guys like that.

Still think a bigger, veteran bat is more of a priority.

[wallus]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

They just had a segment on MLB Network going over hypothetical Skubal offers. The one they had for the Brewers was Williams, Lara, Letson. 

That's a big no from me. If we are moving those guys, get someone with control.

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, Turning2 said:

Assuming health and if MIL was intent on it, I could live with that. Williams seemed like an odd piece to acquire and perhaps was only added to be part of a deadline trade package. Lara potentially adds an upgrade to Frelick and Perkins in the Brewers current situation, but do we need yet another small, fast, defensive guy who may or may not be able to hit MLB pitching? Do any of the big market teams trot out 5'7" outfielders? I'm familiar of Letson as a standout in the lower affiliates but seems like there are a number of guys like that.

Still think a bigger, veteran bat is more of a priority.

I think you're grossly understating what Lara is as a prospect. You want an OFer in his range, Cedric Mullins. Kirby Puckett wasn't exactly Wemby.
He's a prototypical leadoff hitter, more BB than Ks, he's got great speed... and he's hitting for power this year. He won't be a 30 HR a year hitter, but he can hit for power.

I also don't get this "we don't even know if he can hit MLB pitching." Yeah... you never know. We don't know anything about the future. We don't know Skubal will be able to stay healthy. You follow the best The Brewers have specifically said they think he's a future Gold Glover in CF... which is BIG statement for an organization to make, and he's hitting .345/.452/.510 in a Nashville park that's tough to hit in. 

I don't care if he's 5'7 or 6'2, if the guy can get on base, has great defense, speed and can give you 10-15 HRs... which I think Lara easily can, that's going to easily be a 3 WAR, maybe a 4-5 WAR player. 

Mookie Betts isn't towering over people at 5'9. If he was a pitcher... it'd be a bit more disconcerting, but I don't care from a CFer. 

I also disagree there are a number of arms like Letson's in our system. I think he's our clear #1 pitching prospect. At least until Knoth can get back and even then, it's the big extension, riding FB profile vs the high spin rate of Knoth. Letson is outside the top 100(though that could change pretty quickly) but I really think you're underselling our 3 of our top 10 prospects in Williams, Lara and Letson at the moment. That's from the top system in Baseball... and two guys who are about a week away from likely being called up and who should both contribute and upgrade this team right away. 

 

And I don't know who the bat that's being traded is worth a big haul. Yordan Alvarez? I don't know where you play him, but he's a superstar... a top 3 hitter. And he'll cost you a kings ransom. 

Maybe check out BA podcast on the Brewers system. I believe they said if you took guys in their 15-30 range, they'd be top 5 in some other systems. The three they mentioned was Luke Adams, Bishop Letson and... I believe it was Blake Burke and they'd be 3,4,5 on the Rockies(may be wrong on Burke). They also debated the Pirates vs Brewers as the top farm system, but said if you took out Made and Griffin and went over #2-#30, it's easily the Brewers. 

I've seen others who've said the Brewers system is "lapping the field," much like the Baltimore system was 4-5 years ago when you had Ruschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Westburg, etc... just PART of the reason why I look at our system with Jett at #3, Lara at #5 and Letson at #6 and believe that's... a massive price for a rental.

As always though, if we did get Skubal, I'd be excited and get over it quickly and look forward to the rest of this season. 

[Lloyd330]

Some of you are scared to do any type of trade - We cant move our precious prospects. 

[Playing Catch]

52 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Some of you are scared to do any type of trade - We cant move our precious prospects. 

Others are convinced 2 or 3 starts of Skubal in a playoff series is worth watching Ortiz, Rengifo, Perkins, and oodles of other replacement-level position players for the next 6 seasons.

[Lloyd330]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

Others are convinced 2 or 3 starts of Skubal in a playoff series is worth watching Ortiz, Rengifo, Perkins, and oodles of other replacement-level position players for the next 6 seasons.

Those two have nothing to do with each other

[Fear The Chorizo]

19 hours ago, TURBO said:

If we were talking about 1.5 seasons of Skubal, I could get behind giving up a heavy package, but for .5 of a season?

Nah, I'm good. 

Teams like us can't mortgage our future for one guy because once he's gone, we still won't spend the money on another guy.  We don't spend, which is why we have to rely on our farm to sustain us into the future.

I agree with this sentiment 95% of the time.....but in this particular case, a 0.5 season of one of the best 2 pitchers in baseball when he's healthy is worth giving up a volume-based prospect haul if:

 

1 - Skubal is healthy post surgery and has no limitations on innings the rest of the stretch as he gets himself ready to chase a title and free agent payday

2 - the CBA strife doesn't appear to be headed towards a resolution before impacting the 2027 season

3 - the package the Brewers assemble for Skubal could include 1 young MLB arm that Skubal would naturally need to replace on the 40 man (Gasser, Sproat, Henderson, Crow) plus an array of younger prospects who may be positionally blocked by current core Brewer players or more touted prospects.  Many of those prospects will need to be dealt in the coming years to avoid losing them in the rule 5 draft (assuming that element remains in the new CBA, whenever that is signed).

The Brewers system is as deeply layered in talent as it's ever been, IMO - now is the time to make a splash that could turn their playoff rotation into a monster against anyone, especially since at the moment the Brewers are leaning on younger arms who may need innings restrictions/extra rest so they're as strong as possible in the postseason.

[Turning2]

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think you're grossly understating what Lara is as a prospect. You want an OFer in his range, Cedric Mullins. Kirby Puckett wasn't exactly Wemby.
He's a prototypical leadoff hitter, more BB than Ks, he's got great speed... and he's hitting for power this year. He won't be a 30 HR a year hitter, but he can hit for power.

I also don't get this "we don't even know if he can hit MLB pitching." Yeah... you never know. We don't know anything about the future. We don't know Skubal will be able to stay healthy. You follow the best The Brewers have specifically said they think he's a future Gold Glover in CF... which is BIG statement for an organization to make, and he's hitting .345/.452/.510 in a Nashville park that's tough to hit in. 

I don't care if he's 5'7 or 6'2, if the guy can get on base, has great defense, speed and can give you 10-15 HRs... which I think Lara easily can, that's going to easily be a 3 WAR, maybe a 4-5 WAR player. 

Mookie Betts isn't towering over people at 5'9. If he was a pitcher... it'd be a bit more disconcerting, but I don't care from a CFer. 

I also disagree there are a number of arms like Letson's in our system. I think he's our clear #1 pitching prospect. At least until Knoth can get back and even then, it's the big extension, riding FB profile vs the high spin rate of Knoth. Letson is outside the top 100(though that could change pretty quickly) but I really think you're underselling our 3 of our top 10 prospects in Williams, Lara and Letson at the moment. That's from the top system in Baseball... and two guys who are about a week away from likely being called up and who should both contribute and upgrade this team right away. 

 

And I don't know who the bat that's being traded is worth a big haul. Yordan Alvarez? I don't know where you play him, but he's a superstar... a top 3 hitter. And he'll cost you a kings ransom. 

Maybe check out BA podcast on the Brewers system. I believe they said if you took guys in their 15-30 range, they'd be top 5 in some other systems. The three they mentioned was Luke Adams, Bishop Letson and... I believe it was Blake Burke and they'd be 3,4,5 on the Rockies(may be wrong on Burke). They also debated the Pirates vs Brewers as the top farm system, but said if you took out Made and Griffin and went over #2-#30, it's easily the Brewers. 

I've seen others who've said the Brewers system is "lapping the field," much like the Baltimore system was 4-5 years ago when you had Ruschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Westburg, etc... just PART of the reason why I look at our system with Jett at #3, Lara at #5 and Letson at #6 and believe that's... a massive price for a rental.

As always though, if we did get Skubal, I'd be excited and get over it quickly and look forward to the rest of this season. 

Fair points.

Not really interested in Skubal, but if they did go for it.... I just view him as a proven, known asset versus Lara's zero experience in the bigs. Yes, Skubal's injury does throw a worrisome unknown into the works too. I am admittedly biased, preferring players with more size, especially in the OF. But then again.. Mitchell's size hasn't exactly parlayed into the power hitting CF we many thought he would be either. Still find it more likely that a bigger frame is going to bring more big pop. There are always a few exceptions. Perhaps Lara is one. Hard to climb a wall and pull back a HR though. I'm not as down on him as it may seem, but if they were to make a splash gamble on Skubal, you have to give something up, and Lara is one I could live with knowing Adamcewski and Payne are in the pipeline. 

Yes, I probably undervalued Letson. Looks like he is in their top ten prospect list. I only knew of him a bit as a standout from Appleton last year, who seemed to have more name cred than on field production. Probably wrong, didn't check the stats. I recall he was hurt for a good portion early on. There are too many pitchers at all the affiliate levels to keep track of for me. I hear various names tossed out Meccage, Hardin, Knoth etc. They all go in a pool of "unfamiliar with them" for me.. LOL. I'd rather hang onto Letson, but again, you have to give something of value up. 

Jett is the only guy I have no problem with using as trade bait. Yes, he showed some respectable power at AA for his size. But again, we don't know if that will translate at the majors. Mostly though, I don't see anything but a utility role for him in MIL. 

I don't expect them to trade for a BIG bat like an Alvarez level hitter. Wouldn't want them to actually, because it would be too cost prohibitive. I would like to see them hunt for a big-ger bat, an upgrade but not a premier hitter, preferably for 3B. Who exactly that is, that makes sense from cost to commitment, to blocking prospects etc, I don't know. 

I'm a bit of a prospect hugger, but am open to happy medium trades trying to plug holes at what I consider reasonable risk / reward odds. 

 

 

[Bulldogboy]

19 hours ago, SF70 said:

Another player in great demand that’s likely to elicit a bidding war — so no thanks. 

We don’t “need” Skubal or Ryan to win a title. We have the postseason big 3 with Miz-Harrison-Woodruff. Henderson makes a nice 4. 

Spend the prospect capital on HL bullpen arm/s.

No way we can ever count on Woodruff. I am interested in Skubal if it doesn't cost me Made Pena or Fischer.

[Bulldogboy]

I am way more interested in adding Yordan Alveraz from Astros. They will be selling and rebuilding. A dh is not as costly as a number 1 starting pitcher.