World Series Game 3, Brewers (Gasser) vs Rays (Peralta): 10/26/26, 7:00pm

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

I’m probably alone on this, but I want Pratt on the bench. 10 games, 4 errors, botched double play almost costing a game (not an error on paper), and numerous bad throws Bauers has bailed him on. The defense is just terrible and he doesn’t have a great 1B to save him. Pratt versus Tropicana Field? It feels like a disaster brewing. I know the offense is better, but jeez, the defense is just bad man.

That being said, I know he will be in the lineup, so I hope he proves me wrong both with the bat and the glove. 

FWIW when the Brewers faced Freddy earlier this year Pratt was 3-3 with a HR against him..

Freddy Peralta Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

[dlk9s]

I'm certainly optimistic, after all, why wouldn't I be with this team? But there's a small part of me that does have a concern (and again, why would this not be the case as a Brewers fans?). The one thing that maybe worries me a tiny bit is that the Rays have played like dog crap and are still a hair away from being up 2-0. I wouldn't count on them continuing to screw up.

Looking forward to Freddy giving up a patented first inning homer.

[Fear The Chorizo]

58 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I'd prefer Ortiz. It is kind of funny that throughout the dominant playoff run, their defense has been pretty bad. There have been plenty of really nice plays, but there's been a ton of mistakes.

You could say the same thing about Tampa Bay's defense, too.

 

One thing that doesn't get factored in enough with errors/misplays is the pressure an opponent puts on you to be perfect with team speed/aggressive baserunning/putting defenders in unfamiliar situations with bunting and situational hitting that is becoming much more rare in how the game is played today.  Tampa was a top ten team this year in number of errors committed against them per game, while the Brewers were #1.

 

Some of these errors are blatant misplays, yes - but many of them have occurred under the duress of both playoff pressure and plays where you need to be near perfect to execute them due to a runner hustling down the line or to a bag to try and beat out a force play.  Even with the defensive lapses, the Brewers have won their last 7 playoff games and only lost once in 10 - you gotta keep riding that mojo at this point because you're only 2 wins away!

[Brewcrew82]

Gasser needs to be very careful about how he pitches Diaz and Caminero, especially with runners on. Otherwise, he can feel pretty free to go after the rest of this lineup which struggles against LHP. Needs to get ahead in counts like he did against the Dodgers. 

As far as the offense vs. Peralta, they couldn't know the plan of attack any better. Do exactly what you did on Saturday and what you've been doing the entire season and postseason. Wait him out by not swinging at the array of uncompetitive pitches you know he'll give you and be prepared to crush any mistakes. If he happens to not give you many mistakes, then get to their pen which struggles to bridge to Baker and co. Under no circumstances can you help Freddy out and let him become that bridge. 

[CheezWizHed]

Interesting how Peralta's K/9 rate is down to 7 with Tampa after being 10+ with the Brewers.  Likewise his BB/9 rate is down 2.4 or about 1.0 less than with the Brewers. Seems like he is pitching to contact more and relying on the Tampa D to handle it.  He has done well in the playoffs (2 ER in 15.2IP), but even with Tampa was 3.25/3.93 ERA/FIP, so not quite as dominant as with the Brewers. 

And five inning Freddie remains the typical.  I love ya man, but knock him out early and start eating the pen again. 

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

I love what Gas has done. But I do wonder if that pitch mix, from a left hander, plays into the strengths of the top of their order especially.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Marc Newfield of Dreams said:

I love what Gas has done. But I do wonder if that pitch mix, from a left hander, plays into the strengths of the top of their order especially.

Yeah. Kind of surprised they're not opting for a right handed opener like May or even Senza. 

Otherwise, going to have to spam sinkers against Diaz who does have issues elevating. And try to get Caminero to chase with 4 seamers above and sweepers below. Especially to Caminero he cannot afford an in-zone mistake. 

[CheezWizHed]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Gasser needs to be very careful about how he pitches Diaz and Caminero, especially with runners on. Otherwise, he can feel pretty free to go after the rest of this lineup which struggles against LHP. Needs to get ahead in counts like he did against the Dodgers. 

I'm really curious if Gasser might be a better fit against Tampa than Miz or Henderson?  He isn't focused on high K rates, but lives on poor contact.  If he has good control tonight, he might eat innings quickly with low pitch counts. 

I do like the kid's demeanor, too.  He doesn't rattle easily and seems to be very focused out there. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm really curious if Gasser might be a better fit against Tampa than Miz or Henderson?  He isn't focused on high K rates, but lives on poor contact.  If he has good control tonight, he might eat innings quickly with low pitch counts. 

I do like the kid's demeanor, too.  He doesn't rattle easily and seems to be very focused out there. 

Yeah, I really do like his fit vs. every Tampa hitter except for Caminero and Diaz. lol

[CheezWizHed]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, I do like his fit vs. every Tampa hitter except for Caminero and Diaz. lol

Technically any pitcher vs Caminero... Some guys are just difficult to contain. 😉

[Team Canada]

55 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

The one thing that maybe worries me a tiny bit is that the Rays have played like dog crap and are still a hair away from being up 2-0. I wouldn't count on them continuing to screw up.

To some extent SD and LA are sitting at home saying the same thing about their series. At some point it's not luck anymore, it's just a superior team doing just enough to win every single game.

[CheezWizHed]

2 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

To some extent SD and LA are sitting at home saying the same thing about their series. At some point it's not luck anymore, it's just a superior team doing just enough to win every single game.

And I wouldn't say we are firing on all cylinders either. Our BP is fire, but our SP has struggled, our D has had too many yips, and only a few guys hitting well. 

[owbc]

12 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

To some extent SD and LA are sitting at home saying the same thing about their series. At some point it's not luck anymore, it's just a superior team doing just enough to win every single game.

Yeah the deserve-to-win meter had us at like 75% for G1 and 85% for G2. The second game in particular was a sneaky domination that the Rays were lucky to keep close. We had an absurd amount of hard contact in that one. 

Tonight could be like G3 of the Padres series where a great pitching performance finally beats us, or it could be like G3 of the Dodgers series where we broke them early and walked away with an easy win. 

It's hard not to like our odds of winning the series since it's basically must-win territory for the Rays tonight. It's easy to imagine them buckling down at home and getting the series back to Milwaukee. But I could also see the opposite scenario where they come out to a pro-Brewers crowd, fall behind early, and that's essentially it. 
 

[tmwiese55]

Yea it was 'luck' that Frelick's hr snuck over the wall.  But it was unlucky  that two other ones were caught with backs on the wall.  And I think there was Turang and Yeli rocket outs to the right side of the IF with runners on base 

[Bulldogboy]

Gasser confidence has to be high right now and I think he will pitch well. 

[cragi]

I cant see Ortiz over Hamilton the rest of the way. Ortiz had a very cold offensive finish and we know Murph loves Hamilton, even before the recent hot bat. So he's in. 

Ortiz over Pratt is a possibility but Pratt has always been a sure defender, so you would expect him to rebound. But his leash is getting shorter.

[owbc]

At this point you let it ride, same lineup. 

Would like to see a Vaughn PH at the right time though. 

[Bulldogboy]

Big concern is roof and turf. Both take getting used to. Hope it doesn't cost us an out or two.

[Underachiever]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

the highest Expansion/LCS Era team on that leaderboard is the 1990 Reds in 8th with +2.13 WPA, nasty indeed.

I get that reference.

[torts]

5 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Big concern is roof and turf. Both take getting used to. Hope it doesn't cost us an out or two.

Good thing they had a day off to practice

[nate82]

As long as the Brewers don’t chase the change up they should be fine.  This is the game to have Vaughn in over Yelich.  I doubt Murphy will sit Yelich but if he were this is the game to do it.  

[RobertCrawley]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Gasser needs to be very careful about how he pitches Diaz and Caminero, especially with runners on. Otherwise, he can feel pretty free to go after the rest of this lineup which struggles against LHP. Needs to get ahead in counts like he did against the Dodgers. 

As far as the offense vs. Peralta, they couldn't know the plan of attack any better. Do exactly what you did on Saturday and what you've been doing the entire season and postseason. Wait him out by not swinging at the array of uncompetitive pitches you know he'll give you and be prepared to crush any mistakes. If he happens to not give you many mistakes, then get to their pen which struggles to bridge to Baker and co. Under no circumstances can you help Freddy out and let him become that bridge. 

Walking Caminero is not the wurst thing that could happen.

[Zad Fnark]

If the Crew can pull this one off tonight, I will likely relax the whole rest of the series.

I'll pull for a Joey O appearance.  *Everyone* has contributed and he'll likely put one over the wall at some point.  I'm a believer.

[thammondwis]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I’m probably alone on this, but I want Pratt on the bench. 10 games, 4 errors, botched double play almost costing a game (not an error on paper), and numerous bad throws Bauers has bailed him on. The defense is just terrible and he doesn’t have a great 1B to save him. Pratt versus Tropicana Field? It feels like a disaster brewing. I know the offense is better, but jeez, the defense is just bad man.

That being said, I know he will be in the lineup, so I hope he proves me wrong both with the bat and the glove. 

If Joey was hitting better right now I would be with you.  But his bat seems to have cooled off.  Pratt has made some really tough plays.  He seems like he has the tools just needs to keep focus.

[baseball101]

Lot of the same sentiment going into LA for game three. Crowd, nervous, could see a path for the Brewers losing the series. The Brewers are the best team in baseball and have been most of the year. I’m confident; and if the Brewers get down early the game is not over.