Josh Hader Traded to the Padres

[Never Outhustled]

8 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Apparently we read different scouting reports. 

I've read that he may be the fastest player in the majors.

[Joseph Zarr]

Check this list out:

(Zoom in to the Top 10)

(Also, look at sneaky RHP Kevin Briceno. Huzzzah!)

(Double Also, @CheeseheadInQC: Look in the 30's - offensively)

[Never Outhustled]

3 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Yep, we cleared that up. If one goes, IMO it would be Omar.

Agree. I'll bet he ends up in Cleveland. 

[Robocaller]

7 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

He's fast. Very fast. 

Run: Plus runner, with strong instincts that allow him to steal an elite number of bases. Speed translates to some defensive range at second. Grade: 60

https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/esteury-ruiz

 

[liveforoctober]

16 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

1. Josh Hader is a dominant pitcher, Taylor Rodgers is an effective pitcher. We lost value going forward, unless Hader is broken, which I don't believe.

2. Get over Hader losing a couple of postseason games. It doesn't doom the same results, particularly since overall he's been great in the playoffs.

3. Ruiz and Gasser are fine "gets" in the trade. The only negatives are that Ruiz doesn't field any position well yet (I think he'll eventually be fine in CF) and that I kept reading that SD didn't give up any of the prospects they were offering for Soto. We got the guys who aren't really great prospects. Also Ruiz has speed, but it's not elite speed--he just knows how to steal bases.

4. Lamet is a AAAA pitcher to me at this point. Maybe the brewers were OK with the other three guys and Lamet was just a throw-in. I'd have preferred someone who could be a solid 6-7 inning guy right now, or another prospect like Ruiz and Gasser. If they had gotten such a player, I'd have graded this as a win for the Brewers. 

Umm, do you know how many 6-7 inning guys there are in all of baseball right now? Burnes averages just over 6ip per start this season. Woodruff is just over 5. Lauer 5 1/2. Houser 5.

Woodruff was 5th in Cy Young voting last year and he didn't average 6ip/start.

Asking for that as a throw in 4th piece to a trade is a little out of touch with current player builds. There are less than 25 guys like that in all of baseball and those guys are all elite.

The Barry Zito/Bronson Arroyo 'mid 4 ERA but will eat up 7 innings every start' pitchers are no longer a thing in today's game.

[Joseph Zarr]

2 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Run: Plus runner, with strong instincts that allow him to steal an elite number of bases. Speed translates to some defensive range at second. Grade: 60

https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/esteury-ruiz

 

I've seen that and I'm not trying to be contentious, just so we're clear. But, playing CF and playing 2B are entirely different monsters. His speed has really shined since the move to the OF. He covers massive ground. I'm saying: he's very very fast. I'd easily put him at 70 speed. And, that's just me. Thanks for sharing, though - sincerely!

[Robocaller]

2 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Umm, do you know how many 6-7 inning guys there are in all of baseball right now? Burnes averages just over 6ip per start this season. Woodruff is just over 5. Lauer 5 1/2. Houser 5.

Woodruff was 5th in Cy Young voting last year and he didn't average 6ip/start.

Asking for that as a throw in 4th piece to a trade is a little out of touch with current player builds. There are less than 25 guys like that in all of baseball and those guys are all elite.

The Barry Zito/Bronson Arroyo 'mid 4 ERA but will eat up 7 innings every start' pitchers are no longer a thing in today's game.

Of course that's not what I mean. I meant a reliever who can be slotted into the 6th or 7th innings in close games.

 

[liveforoctober]

5 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Of course that's not what I mean. I meant a reliever who can be slotted into the 6th or 7th innings in close games.

 

Oh, geez. I'm stupid. Sorry man, my fault.

[wibadgers23]

Trading Hader mid-season feels like a punch to the gut. It would have been a lot easier losing him in offseason. That being said, Ruiz and Gasser sound like exciting prospects and Rogers slots right into the 8th or 9th inning role.

[edfunderburk]

37 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Apparently we read different scouting reports. 

60 of 69 stolen bases … elite speed or not - that’s impressive

[HarveysWBs]

Just now, edfunderburk said:

60 of 69 stolen bases … elite speed or not - that’s impressive

It’s not just impressive. It’s *nice*.

[Playing Catch]

7 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Trading Hader mid-season feels like a punch to the gut. It would have been a lot easier losing him in offseason. That being said, Ruiz and Gasser sound like exciting prospects and Rogers slots right into the 8th or 9th inning role.

I can't speak for others, but even though I support the trade, it absolutely feels like a punch to the gut. Hader has been nothing short of spectacular, and a wonderful Brewer to root for.

[Robocaller]

2 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

60 of 69 stolen bases … elite speed or not - that’s impressive

Joey Wiemer 25 of 26 stolen bases. 
Brice Turang 22 of 24 stolen bases.
Jonathon Davis 18 of 20 stolen bases.
Joe Gray 16 of 17 stolen bases.

David Hamilton (former brewer prospect) 49 of 53 stolen bases.
 

 

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I can't speak for others, but even though I support the trade, it absolutely feels like a punch to the gut. Hader has been nothing short of spectacular, and a wonderful Brewer to root for.

This is pretty much where I’m at too. Totally understand the trade & am intrigued by what I feel is a solid return, but I didn’t think they’d deal Josh until the offseason.

Not only an all time great Brewer, but an all time great start to a career for a reliever.

Been fun watching him evolve from a guy who would come in for multiple innings & blow away hitters with just a heater into an elite closer once he figured out the slider.

Best of luck to him in San Diego (except when he’s facing the Brewers of course) & hopefully he gives Hoffman a run for his money.

[tomwopat]

2 hours ago, HarveysWBs said:

I'm wary of extreme, dualistic thinking about these things.  Professional GMs rarely get taken to the cleaners on deals, and there are a whole range of possibilities between "Stearns is some god" and "he got fleeced."

I assume Stearns is acutely aware of exactly what Hader's market value is at the moment, what it is likely to be this winter, and made a call on that basis.  Going off of his comments (posted earlier in the thread and on Brewers media), this was a decision based on liking Gasser and Ruiz more than most rankings did (and, as a reminder to any who need it, such "rankings" are fairly amateurish exercises--but awfully fun for the fans and for the clicks), and also with an eye towards both immediate and long-term competitiveness.

I think you can fairly disagree with the strategy, which Stearns has often referred to as an attempt to increase the number of "bites at the apple," but that is an argument about tactics.  I think the fairest criticism one could make is that Stearns knows exactly what he is doing, but his strategy is a faulty one.  I think a fact-based discussion about an all-in approach (yielding boom and bust cycles) vs. a consistently good approach (yielding teams that never do multi-year rebuilds and are always in the mix but never the "buzzy" team) would be the way to go with this.

I think there’s a distinction to be made between whether it’s a good baseball decision or a good business decision.

Seems pretty obvious to me that it’s a superior business decision given the market the club operates in.

I’d say the jury is still out on whether it’s a good baseball decision— there’s plenty of teams that have limped into the playoffs then carried a hot streak to a World Series win, so it’s quite possible this may eventually work for the Brewers too.

[BrewCrew8675309]

6 hours ago, homer said:

I am wary of El Paso numbers

Billy Joe Robidoux vibes and I feel them too.

[homer]

Just now, BrewCrew8675309 said:

Billy Joe Robidoux vibes and I feel them too.

I was thinking Joey Meyer but yeah. I don't want to be hurt again.

[endaround]

The Padres have to have a reason to move on from Rogers. It maybe that he hasn't pitched more than 40 innings since 2019. Maybe they see a guy who is about to pitch closer to his xFIP.

[Robocaller]

9 minutes ago, homer said:

I was thinking Joey Meyer but yeah. I don't want to be hurt again.

El Paso has a .855 OPS as a team (compared to .771 for Nashville)! Ruiz has .935. Pro-rate it for Nashville and you get .843, so a little better than Pablo Reyes or Jonathon Davis.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

8 minutes ago, endaround said:

The Padres have to have a reason to move on from Rogers. It maybe that he hasn't pitched more than 40 innings since 2019. Maybe they see a guy who is about to pitch closer to his xFIP.

Or it may be that they can package Rogers, Lamet, and two pretty darn good prospects for 1.5 seasons of Hader.

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, endaround said:

The Padres have to have a reason to move on from Rogers. It maybe that he hasn't pitched more than 40 innings since 2019. Maybe they see a guy who is about to pitch closer to his xFIP.

No reliever pitched more than 40 innings in 2020. 

Rogers xFIP is 3.36 this year & 3.19 for his career, I agree those have better predictive capabilities than his 4.35 ERA from this year.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'm thrilled with this trade.  Its a small downgrade on the MLB roster, but has the potential to actually be a plus with Ruiz and Lamet as wildcards.  I am a huge Lamet fan and feel he could be a huge change of scenery guy especially with our pitching lab.  I would not expect top 100 prospects if we are getting major league talent back.  So I am totally ok with Ruiz and Gasser as the return.  Unfortunately, this is the type of trade this team needs to make to stay competitive over multiple years.  Trade off stars for prospects as well as ML players.

[BallFour]

24 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

El Paso has a .855 OPS as a team (compared to .771 for Nashville)! Ruiz has .935. Pro-rate it for Nashville and you get .843, so a little better than Pablo Reyes or Jonathon Davis.

 

Just to get precise numbers on this

Pablo Reyes  wrC+ of 123 in 2022, 28 years old with 1,078 career PA at AAA

Jonathan Davis wrC+ of 130 in 2022, 30 years old with 819 career PA at AAA

Esteury Ruiz wrC+ of 145 in 2022, 23 years old with 142 PA at AAA

 

 

 

[Playing Catch]

Pablo Reyes is almost 29 (FTR, I can't believe he's not a regular utility guy for a lesser MLB team).

Jonathan Davis is 30.

C.J. Abrams wRC+ for the Padres' AA/AAA teams were 112 and 115, respectively.

I don't discount the concern about the inflated numbers out West at all, and there's no such thing as a sure-thing, but Ruiz' was a "tools over production" prospect before the season began, and he's put together one of the more impressive stat-lines in the minors this year as a 23 year old.

I am not writing this to say that Ruiz is some kind of super-Stearns-polished-diamond-prospect, or that he's a sure thing. It's more a way to state that prospect ratings -- especially "rankings" are dubious. For every Billy Joe Robidoux, Glenn Braggs, or Lewis Brinson, there are plenty more good players that never made a "top 100" ranking. Ruiz seems like he could be one of those.

I also trust that Stearns' track record is to procure minor league assets that, at the minimum, will become big league contributors.

[Robocaller]

20 minutes ago, BallFour said:

Just to get precise numbers on this

Pablo Reyes  wrC+ of 123 in 2022, 28 years old with 1,078 career PA at AAA

Jonathan Davis wrC+ of 130 in 2022, 30 years old with 819 career PA at AAA

Esteury Ruiz wrC+ of 145 in 2022, 23 years old with 142 PA at AAA

 

 

 

I knew what I did wasn't ideal, but baseball reference didn't give me much to work with.