NL Central Discussion

[BruisedCrew]

The way things are trending the most likely scenario in the WC round would be the 2nd place team in the division playing the Phillies and the winner of the division playing whoever emerges as the final WC team. 

The Brewers are still 5 games ahead of the final wild card spot. If they fall that far they would probably be in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. Those 7 games against the Marlins are looming large. 

Note: I am NOT expecting or assuming that the Brewers are not going to win the division or that they are going to miss the playoffs. 
 

 

[BruisedCrew]

Now that the Cubs have erased most of the 4 1/2 game lead the Brewers had Sunday morning, I'm revisiting the issue of remaining schedules.

Focusing on the next 18 days leading up to the final week of the season, both teams play 5 series.

The Cubs have: Ariz (4), @Colo (3), @Ariz (3), Pit (3), Col (3).

The Brewers have: @NYY (3), Mia (4), Wash (3), @SL (4), @Mia (3)

The Cubs have 3 series (10 games) at home and 2 series (6 games) on the road,

The Brewers have 2 series (7 games) at home, and 3 series (10 games) on the road.

Breaking down these schedules, I see the respective home and home series against the DBacks and Marlins to be basically a wash. Both teams are squarely in the hunt for the last wild card spot with only a half game separating them and the Reds. Both teams have struggled since the ASB (9 games under .500), though the Marlins have shown some life recently, winning 6 in a row including wins over the Dodgers the last two nights. The Marlins could also be affected by IL stints for Alcantara and Soler.

The Cubs real potential advantage comes from their home and home series with the Rockies, who have the worst record in the NL by 10 games with a run differential of -210. They also have the worst record in the league since the ASB. It stings that the Brewers lost 4 of 6 to that team; hoping for help from them is likely futile.

Meanwhile the Brewers' "worst" opponents during this period are the Cardinals and the Nats, who have gone 27-23 since the ASB. Not good teams, but not Rockies level bad.

The other series for the Cubs is at home against the Pirates, while the Brewers have the road series against the Yankees. Again, advantage Cubs.

The last series before the season ending head to head series are the Cubs at Atlanta and the Brewers at home against the Cardinals. On paper, this looks like an advantage for the Brewers but, as has been covered, it remains to be seen how focused the Braves will be in that final week.

Put it all together and I'm still not seeing any significant advantage for either team but, if anything, I think the Cubs have an edge. The probability of the division race coming down to the last weekend has increased significantly in the last 10 days. The Brewers are probably going to have to play better in these next 5 series than they have in the last 3 to maintain their division lead going into the final week. I am concerned that the Brewers having to play these 17 games without an off day could put more stress on a bullpen that has been less than rock solid recently. The Cubs are in the middle of a stretch of 14 games in 13 days, but they will then have two off days before the final week.

[brewers888]

My advice is to start scoreboard watching the other wild card contenders because that is probably our best shot at making the playoffs. The run differential numbers all season have told us that this is not a great team and probably closer to a mid 80s win team than one than wins over 90. The most likely scenario for this team is the second wild card and a matchup with the Phillies who will hopefully give away a game or two with their awful fundamentals.

[phnxcrew]

The cubs seem to have been handed a miracle this year with almost everything breaking right on their own team and the continued inability of the brewers to find an acceptable offense.  As others have stated, it really won’t matter in the playoffs as we had little to no shot (especially with mediocre burnes).  oh well, at least we can hopefully watch the Phillies make enough errors and just maybe Justin Steele isn’t the best pitcher ever come the postseason.  

[SF70]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

Now that the Cubs have erased most of the 4 1/2 game lead the Brewers had Sunday morning, I'm revisiting the issue of remaining schedules.

Focusing on the next 18 days leading up to the final week of the season, both teams play 5 series.

The Cubs have: Ariz (4), @Colo (3), @Ariz (3), Pit (3), Col (3).

The Brewers have: @NYY (3), Mia (4), Wash (3), @SL (4), @Mia (3)

The Cubs have 3 series (10 games) at home and 2 series (6 games) on the road,

The Brewers have 2 series (7 games) at home, and 3 series (10 games) on the road.

Breaking down these schedules, I see the respective home and home series against the DBacks and Marlins to be basically a wash. Both teams are squarely in the hunt for the last wild card spot with only a half game separating them and the Reds. Both teams have struggled since the ASB (9 games under .500), though the Marlins have shown some life recently, winning 6 in a row including wins over the Dodgers the last two nights. The Marlins could also be affected by IL stints for Alcantara and Soler.

The Cubs real potential advantage comes from their home and home series with the Rockies, who have the worst record in the NL by 10 games with a run differential of -210. They also have the worst record in the league since the ASB. It stings that the Brewers lost 4 of 6 to that team; hoping for help from them is likely futile.

Meanwhile the Brewers' "worst" opponents during this period are the Cardinals and the Nats, who have gone 27-23 since the ASB. Not good teams, but not Rockies level bad.

The other series for the Cubs is at home against the Pirates, while the Brewers have the road series against the Yankees. Again, advantage Cubs.

The last series before the season ending head to head series are the Cubs at Atlanta and the Brewers at home against the Cardinals. On paper, this looks like an advantage for the Brewers but, as has been covered, it remains to be seen how focused the Braves will be in that final week.

Put it all together and I'm still not seeing any significant advantage for either team but, if anything, I think the Cubs have an edge. The probability of the division race coming down to the last weekend has increased significantly in the last 10 days. The Brewers are probably going to have to play better in these next 5 series than they have in the last 3 to maintain their division lead going into the final week. I am concerned that the Brewers having to play these 17 games without an off day could put more stress on a bullpen that has been less than rock solid recently. The Cubs are in the middle of a stretch of 14 games in 13 days, but they will then have two off days before the final week.

I don’t disagree with anything you said. I’ll only add the Yankees are hot, having won 7 of 8, and the Marlins, with Jazz Chizolm healthy again and swinging a hot bat are a better team than Arizona because of their pitching even without Alcantara.

 

[owbc]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

My advice is to start scoreboard watching the other wild card contenders because that is probably our best shot at making the playoffs. The run differential numbers all season have told us that this is not a great team and probably closer to a mid 80s win team than one than wins over 90. The most likely scenario for this team is the second wild card and a matchup with the Phillies who will hopefully give away a game or two with their awful fundamentals.

Run differential is meaningless in September and October. When you are 130+ games in, you are what your record is. 

We've had a lot of bad playoff luck in our recent appearances. The 2019 team was arguably better than both of our NLCS teams. The 2021 NLDS could have gone either way. If we win the NL Central we're going to be heavily favored in our WC matchup. Otherwise we're going to have a series with the Phillies that will be a tossup. 

[brewmann04]

at this point not sure what brewer team we will see on any given night. so doing predictions are useless 

[Sixtolezcano]

I believe the Brewers will get into the playoffs and then get swept in the first round. Not really different than the past 3 playoff series. Unless they can average 5-7 runs per game, which would be a long shot with the players currently on the team, they have very little chance of winning a playoff series much less beating the Braves or Dodgers. This team is constructed to challenge for a playoff spot, but not to go much further. They had their hot streak when they won  9 games in a row. Now they are playing back to their normal ways

[Brewcrew82]

39 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I believe the Brewers will get into the playoffs and then get swept in the first round. Not really different than the past 3 playoff series. Unless they can average 5-7 runs per game, which would be a long shot with the players currently on the team, they have very little chance of winning a playoff series much less beating the Braves or Dodgers. This team is constructed to challenge for a playoff spot, but not to go much further. They had their hot streak when they won  9 games in a row. Now they are playing back to their normal ways

You think they're likely get swept by the Phillies, for example? Or the Marlins/Reds? Nonsense.

They've already been scoring 5 runs per game for the last month since the deadline acquisitions. 

[Underachiever]

Of course, the Brewers need to play better, but the Cubs are 34-16 since the ASB. In 2022, STL finished the year 42-22. In 2021, the Cards had that 17-game winning streak in September. That's just ridiculous, and it's happened three years in a row. When your opponents are winning at a .660+ clip, you can play well and still get left in the dust.

[Sixtolezcano]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You think they're likely get swept by the Phillies, for example? Or the Marlins/Reds? Nonsense.

They've already been scoring 5 runs per game for the last month since the deadline acquisitions. 

Nonsense? Evidently you already have their ticket punched as the NL Central Division champs. I just don’t think they have the offense to pull that off based upon their past 8 games, and almost the entire season.
The great thing about sports is we shall see, won’t we?

[SF70]

5 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Of course, the Brewers need to play better, but the Cubs are 34-16 since the ASB. In 2022, STL finished the year 42-22. In 2021, the Cards had that 17-game winning streak in September. That's just ridiculous, and it's happened three years in a row. When your opponents are winning at a .660+ clip, you can play well and still get left in the dust.

Exactly, and the trend is for that to happen unless MKE can get to 88-89 wins BEFORE the showdown series to end the regular season.

Someone has to beat Chicago and outside of Arizona maybe taking 2 of their 7 games and the Braves a game or maybe 2,  I’m not seeing more than 2-3 losses of the 9 they play Colorado & Pittsburgh. 88-89 wins min before the 3 vs MKE.

 

[tmwiese55]

Of course that is possible.  But in baseball this stuff isn't so easily predictable on paper.  A week ago MKE had just ripped off ten in a row it would've been easy to mark at least 2/3 down vs Pit at that point but it didn't happen.   Of course CHC could maintain this all month but chances are after their hot streak right now they'll hit a 5-5 type stretch just like MKE did.  Neither of these teams are ATL, or prime LAD level good where winning at a 100-110 rate is normal or what you can expect looking at the roster.  After hot streaks teams like these should level out a bit for a while.  

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Nonsense? Evidently you already have their ticket punched as the NL Central Division champs. I just don’t think they have the offense to pull that off based upon their past 8 games, and almost the entire season.
The great thing about sports is we shall see, won’t we?

Never said they were locks for NL Central Division champs. Seems pretty clear now it's going to go down to the wire. What is nonsense is to say they're a sure bet to get swept against their most likely opponents in a Wild Card round such as the Phillies, Reds, Marlins, etc. 

[Sixtolezcano]

30 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Never said they were locks for NL Central Division champs. Seems pretty clear now it's going to go down to the wire. What is nonsense is to say they're a sure bet to get swept against their most likely opponents in a Wild Card round such as the Phillies, Reds, Marlins, etc. 

I never said it was a “sure bet”. I just stated my opinion. Maybe instead of attacking and stating someone’s opinion as nonsense you could just state your own opinion. I understand why you make your statements personal rather than providing your opinion. But leaving out any personal feelings/comments you have toward the poster might be more advantageous for all. I believe this board is meant to provide everyones opinion. “This is a fan message board, for goodness sakes.”

[Brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I never said it was a “sure bet”. I just stated my opinion. Maybe instead of attacking and stating someone’s opinion as nonsense you could just state your own opinion. I understand why you make your statements personal rather than providing your opinion. But leaving out any personal feelings/comments you have toward the poster might be more advantageous for all. I believe this board is meant to provide everyones opinion. “This is a fan message board, for goodness sakes.”

Chill. It's not personal whatsoever. It's your opinion that's nonsense because there's little factual basis for it at this point. Everyone has a right to an opinion; sure, but you don't have a right for your opinion to be accepted/validated by all, especially if the evidence suggests otherwise. In fact, we were purely discussing baseball until you just went on this above tangent. 

To bring the discussion back to baseball, there is little evidence that the Brewers are likely/due to be swept by their likely wild card round opponents, which was your "opinion". 

[Sixtolezcano]

Actually, you made it personal saying my opinion was “nonsense” and turned the whole discussion on its’ head. Just some advice rather than using negative words like nonsense, chill,etc. maybe just use statements like, “I don’t agree” or “This is what I think”. Using negative words makes people defensive and brings everyone down. All I’m asking is just have a little finesse or take to heart the proverb, “you get more flies with honey than vinegar”. It will go much further and people won’t just tune you out.

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Of course, the Brewers need to play better, but the Cubs are 34-16 since the ASB. In 2022, STL finished the year 42-22. In 2021, the Cards had that 17-game winning streak in September. That's just ridiculous, and it's happened three years in a row. When your opponents are winning at a .660+ clip, you can play well and still get left in the dust.

The essence of this comment is that these teams gained ground on the Brewers because they played better. It seems like that’s what the best teams are supposed to do.

The Brewers in 2018, 2019, and 2021 had extended streaks of good play of their own. Their plus .700 play in September of 2018 and 2019 pushed them into the playoffs. In 2021 they were 52-27 (.658) from June through August and built up a cushion that allowed them to hold off the Cardinals in spite of their 17 game winning streak. 

If the Cubs continue to win at their current pace they will likely win the division and they will deserve it. The Brewers put themselves in this position by playing .500 ball from May through July. If they had played like a team that deserved to be in the playoffs they would have a cushion now. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Sure would be nice for Diamondbacks to beat the Cubs tonight. I like being up three games or more in the loss column.

[tmwiese55]

4 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Sure would be nice for Diamondbacks to beat the Cubs tonight. I like being up three games or more in the loss column.

yup I forgot that earlier.    AZ next two starters are Gallen and Kelly too.     Something as easy as Cubs L today, us W and cubs L tomorrow and back to a 3 game cushion just like that.    

[Underachiever]

Clever of the Brewers. By trading for Chafin, he’s not available for the Dbacks tonight.

[Brian]

Cubs Lost to Aroz 6-2 tonight so we have some breathing room for now.

[BruisedCrew]

Because of the tiebreaker situation, the real target for the Brewers will be to get to 4 games ahead of the Cubs before the final series. Being ahead by 3 games would be the functional equivalent of being up by 2 games, just like being ahead by 1 game would be the same as being tied or behind by 1 game. 

[Jopal78]

16 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You think they're likely get swept by the Phillies, for example? Or the Marlins/Reds? Nonsense.

They've already been scoring 5 runs per game for the last month since the deadline acquisitions. 

Yes, Wheeler and Nola are every bit as good a Burnes and Woodruff, and the Phillies have a  better hitter at almost every position. 

[homer]

15 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Chill. It's not personal whatsoever. It's your opinion that's nonsense because there's little factual basis for it at this point. 

Stop telling people to chill. It's really condescending as is the rest of this.