Very Early 2024 Roster Discussion

[BrewerFan]

12 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I don't think they should be trading for next year.  I think they should be building around the Frelick, Chourio, Gasser, Black, Quero core, which is AA/AAA level.  I'd like to maximize the return.  Not get a Greg Vaughn return just to fill the MLB with mediocre talent. 

Especially when we're talking about trading Burnes, Adames(some have talked about Devin Williams) and Woodruff's status is up in the air. 

4 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I am more wary than some people of counting too heavily on players that have not proven that they can hit major league pitching. 

 

That's pretty much all the Brewers can count on. And it's not just Black and Wilken, it's one of the best farm systems in Baseball.

Also...I understand prospects fail, they're busts ALL the time. That's why you get them for nearly 7 years of team control. The alternative is what exactly? Trading for proven young players? Why would a team that actually wants Burnes and is a contender want to do that though?

Is AZ ever going to trade a Corbin Carroll for a guy with one year of team control? Obviously not. You suggested a player like Yelich IIRC? The Yelich we traded for who was ~27 and had 3 years of team control but not a superstar, just a really good 4-5 WAR player. Again, why would a team that's trading him away want Burnes? 

The Brewers aren't putting all their eggs in the Wilken/Black basket. They have a lot of other young talent...but they're also both young players who were highly regarded who have done nothing but hit since they've been drafted. And we'll have half a dozen players right behind them in Boeve, Adams, Bitonti, Pratt, Baez...Devanney is already in AAA, has a great glove and hit well in AAA. 

There is no way to build a WS team in Milwaukee without draft and develop(or sign and develop)...which is why what David Stearns did in re-building(and actually just building) a Dominican club was so incredibly important. 

 

[Matt Breen]

I can understand it if the club looks to see what the market is for Adamas/Burnes/Woody/Williams. But that aside, they have a few things they need to decide:

1. What is Tyler Black's role? Is he a 3B? A 2B? 1B? What? Figure this out to help shape the future.
2. What's the future of Wiemer? I think an OF of Yelich, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer and Taylor would be nice. But the club let Joey sit a lot the last month or two. Do they believe he can be a key player? How do they get him untracked after he stumbled in the 2nd half of 2023.
3. What's Turang's future? The guy has a glove, but will his bat ever play (his glove is going to be fine)? If the team doesn't think so they need to move on from him sooner than later. 

Personally, I'd like to see Gasser in the rotation next year. And I'd like Canha brought back. But so much depends on trades and options being picked up or not, etc.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

I can understand it if the club looks to see what the market is for Adamas/Burnes/Woody/Williams. But that aside, they have a few things they need to decide:

1. What is Tyler Black's role? Is he a 3B? A 2B? 1B? What? Figure this out to help shape the future.
2. What's the future of Wiemer? I think an OF of Yelich, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer and Taylor would be nice. But the club let Joey sit a lot the last month or two. Do they believe he can be a key player? How do they get him untracked after he stumbled in the 2nd half of 2023.
3. What's Turang's future? The guy has a glove, but will his bat ever play (his glove is going to be fine)? If the team doesn't think so they need to move on from him sooner than later. 

Personally, I'd like to see Gasser in the rotation next year. And I'd like Canha brought back. But so much depends on trades and options being picked up or not, etc.

1. Double-check w/the minor league mavins @Joseph Zarr, @Smichaelis9, @wiguy94, @ARobsBrewCrew, but it sounded like Black made major strides at 3B this past season.  Black didn't do as well defensively at AA, but at AAA his fielding % at 3B was .971; for reference, Nolan Arenado's fielding % in 2022 was .968 and Ke'Bryan Hayes was .972.  Black didn't play an inning at 2B this season, so I think that says that 2B isn't his immediate future.

2. I don't think that Counsell makes the same lineup decisions the last two months of the season when they are in a pennant chase versus the first two months of the season.  Plus, once Frelick was up, Taylor was back from injury and got hot, and Canha was acquired, there wasn't a need for Wiemer to start.  He needs the year in AAA that he was supposed to have this year.

3. Turang was a rookie and 5.2 years younger than league average.  I think he lost confidence the last two months of the season.  In 2022 in AAA he had a .772 OPS, where he was 4.4 years younger than league average.  Every stop in his career he's been significantly younger than league average.  At just 23 years old, he's still physically maturing.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

26 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

1. Double-check w/the minor league mavins @Joseph Zarr, @Smichaelis9, @wiguy94, @ARobsBrewCrew, but it sounded like Black made major strides at 3B this past season.  Black didn't do as well defensively at AA, but at AAA his fielding % at 3B was .971; for reference, Nolan Arenado's fielding % in 2022 was .968 and Ke'Bryan Hayes was .972.  Black didn't play an inning at 2B this season, so I think that says that 2B isn't his immediate future.

I believe that Black’s defense made major strides in 2023 both in terms of year-to-year and throughout this most recent campaign.  It’s important to keep in mind that, while his fielding % did improve at AAA, improvement and development is not always apparent in the numbers.  I feel as though I saw noticeable progress at third base for him throughout the year even when the results didn’t necessarily paint the same picture at AA.  All of that not even to mention the taste that he got at first base which, as much as some might disagree, is not any easy position to just pick up.  The goal for him short-term is a split between those two spots, hopefully leaning more third base or even, if he gets more comfortable, full-time 3B.  His fall back would be a full-time transition to first base, although there have been talks in the past about transitioning back to second or even trying the corner outfield spots.  Of course, mixing some time in at DH is certainly in the future for the Canadian speedster/slugger as well although they would prefer to leave that spot open for others to get ABs if at all possible.

[jay87shot]

Black everyday at 3B or 1B would ok with me. I kind of like him in utility role next year best. 

My favorite scenerio is we get Coby Mayo (or a different young 3B) in a Burnes deal and keep Canha to play 1st. Black starts the 1st couple weeks in AAA to preserve control time. Then he plays 30-40 games at 1st, 30-40 games at 3rd, 30-40 DH, and a few in each the OF and 2B if needed. In this scenerio we trade Weimer and Chourio is full time LF and yeli DH. Black or Mayo end up being full time 3B/1B in 2025 (or Wilken if one falters).

[Underachiever]

On 10/6/2023 at 8:58 AM, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Plus, Adames has a pretty deep track record of being a better offensive player than he was this year. He seems like a classic, "hang on and see where you are at the deadline" guy just because his value is more likely to go up than go down.

I also think you just make peace with the fact that you may have to go the QO route. It's not as big of a deal to develop  (or acquire or even piecemeal replace offensively) a SS like Willy as it is a pitcher like Burnes. Burnes, you really need to capitalize on him because, as a franchise, it's really tough to get SP like that, and, even in this era, a TOR starter is the most valuable thing in the sport.

Good lord, if trading Josh Hader threw this club into a tizzy (allegedly), they might fold up and quit the season if Adames got traded at the deadline. He at least is likeable and the unquestioned team leader.

[TURBO]

I really feel like we either extend or trade Adames this off season.  I don't think we trade a guy like him at the deadline unless we are REALLY out of it.  I mean REALLY out of it...

Like Underachiever said above, I think the team would not react very well if we trade him at the deadline like we did with Hader, especially if we are still in the playoff hunt.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

I really feel like we either extend or trade Adames this off season.  I don't think we trade a guy like him at the deadline unless we are REALLY out of it.  I mean REALLY out of it...

Like Underachiever said above, I think the team would not react very well if we trade him at the deadline like we did with Hader, especially if we are still in the playoff hunt.

The other possibility is that, given his underwhelming season this year, they may decide to keep him and trade him at the deadline, especially if they think he's going to perform considerably better. Adames off to a hot start would be valuable, and also could be important to have team leaders around like him for the young guys like Wiemer, Mitchell, and more importantly Chourio. I can see all three options on the table

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

6 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I really feel like we either extend or trade Adames this off season.  I don't think we trade a guy like him at the deadline unless we are REALLY out of it.  I mean REALLY out of it...

Like Underachiever said above, I think the team would not react very well if we trade him at the deadline like we did with Hader, especially if we are still in the playoff hunt.

Yup, I agree with this completely. "See where you are at the deadline," but mostly make peace with the QO. I also think Willy's a guy who might be open to a security-type extension. It'd be worth making those offers now while the open market might not be as excited about a guy who just dipped below league-average OPS+ for only the second time in his career.

I think I'm more bullish on Turang than most. He put together good ABs with regularity during the second half. Drew some walks in the Wild Card series too, even if he also looked overwhelmed by the moment.

Point is, the dude needs to OBP what? .310 to be valuable? .320? Fangraphs WAR had him at .2 this year, bRef 1.6. I saw enough offensive flashes this year to think he could be a 2-win player. It's always going to be carried by the glove, but all the guy's got to do is draw walks and hit strikes, and that's if he basically stays physically the same guy. Plus, his bat doesn't matter as much if we can put a couple more actually good hitters in the lineup. 

Weimer is a bigger concern. Agree with LouisEly that he probably needs that year in AAA just to see if he can make consistent contact. Save for crucial playoff ABs against a lefty, I have more confidence in Turang to get on base than I do Weimer.

 

[StearnsFTW]

Probably already been said, but I'd:

-trade Burnes for the best haul regardless of position, but preferably starting pitching prospects

-Woodruff, whatever happens I guess.  I definitely have zero interest in extending him though.   Just an unfortunate situation.

-trade Adames for whatever you can get.  Zero interest in an extension here also.

-convince Yelich to play 1B.  This is very important in my opinion.

Lineup:

Contreras 

Yelich

Black

Turang

Monasterio 

Frelick/Chourio/Mitchell/Weimer/Taylor

 

Plus whatever we get for Burnes/Adames.   

Peralta

Miley (resigned)

Houser

Gasser

Ashby

 

I'd keep Williams unless I'm blown away.

There is a lot of payroll room here for pitching and 3b.

 

It's a step back in the present, but could yield great gains in 25 and forward.  

[shanedog19]

How they handle Adames this offseason will be interesting. He is the team leader, had a great second half of the season, and plays a stellar defensive SS. They also shouldn't overpay for him, given Turang could take over that position. What if the Brewers offered him something like a 4 year, $50 million extension this offseason? Does he laugh at that? Could we afford anything more? I personally would like to keep him for the right price. As has already been mentioned, you can't move him during the middle of the season because of the team mutiny it would create a la Josh Hader.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, shanedog19 said:

How they handle Adames this offseason will be interesting. He is the team leader, had a great second half of the season, and plays a stellar defensive SS. They also shouldn't overpay for him, given Turang could take over that position. What if the Brewers offered him something like a 4 year, $50 million extension this offseason? Does he laugh at that? Could we afford anything more? I personally would like to keep him for the right price. As has already been mentioned, you can't move him during the middle of the season because of the team mutiny it would create a la Josh Hader.

Before the season he was comping himself to the top deals for SS...so yah, even if his inflated self worth has lost some air, I don't think he is accepting that. Not sure the Brewers would even do it. 

 

[Lathund]

I can't see any scenario in which the Brewers wouldn't be all over 4 years $50m for Adames. Great AAV, short enough to only cover his age 32 season. 

[wiguy94]

Just now, Lathund said:

I can't see any scenario in which the Brewers wouldn't be all over 4 years $50m for Adames. Great AAV, short enough to only cover his age 32 season. 

Yeah if Adames agent came to the Brewers asking for 4/$50 the Brewers would have a contract drawn up and signed within an hour before Adames agent and Adames come to their senses.

[Ro Mueller]

This may be the first indication that we could avoid Super-2 games with Tyler Black. I’d been a bit pessimistic on the timing of Black and Gasser promotions. 

 

[Outlander]

Some pretty decent holes at 1B/3B/DH, not seeing them spending much like usual, so would lean toward Black being on the opening day roster. As we saw with Wiemer though, it doesn't take much to get that extra year of control.

[Joseph Zarr]

19 hours ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

I believe that Black’s defense made major strides in 2023 both in terms of year-to-year and throughout this most recent campaign.  It’s important to keep in mind that, while his fielding % did improve at AAA, improvement and development is not always apparent in the numbers.  I feel as though I saw noticeable progress at third base for him throughout the year even when the results didn’t necessarily paint the same picture at AA.  All of that not even to mention the taste that he got at first base which, as much as some might disagree, is not any easy position to just pick up.  The goal for him short-term is a split between those two spots, hopefully leaning more third base or even, if he gets more comfortable, full-time 3B.  His fall back would be a full-time transition to first base, although there have been talks in the past about transitioning back to second or even trying the corner outfield spots.  Of course, mixing some time in at DH is certainly in the future for the Canadian speedster/slugger as well although they would prefer to leave that spot open for others to get ABs if at all possible.

Absolutely agreed on the 1B take. If anyone questions that just go back to Devanney's (a very good infielder) failed fill-in at 1B attempt post-Singleton trade. Whereas Toro was actually quite good, Devanney was a quagmire in his brief opportunity.

As to Black, he definitely improved and got more comfortable as the year progressed. And, I think it's important to note we are still looking at an incredibly low amount of opportunities. And Black has been the consummate pro in accepting all the moving around, giving it his all (often in completely foreign positions), and all the while continuing to advance an already elite offensive skillset. He showed he has some range (tho limited and obviously inexperienced) and has an arm that plays from the hot corner. Regardless, I personally just repeatedly go back to the sentiments @Smichaelis9and I share: he'll be competent enough at numerous spots (ie he likely won't outright lose you games), with an elite offensive skill set too premium to ignore, that ultimately he could be a utility guy on steroids who can cover numerous positions and always have the DH fall back. I have watched Black play 2B, CF, 3B, and 1B in nearly every game he was called upon since being a prospect in the Brewers system. I don't see an elite defender by any means but I consistently see good effort and intensity and well more than enough offensive showcasing to validate spot playing him at any of these positions (tho, obviously, he'll likely never touch the CF grass in Milwaukee unless in an absolute emergency). His greatest impact on the game will predominantly come in the batters box and on the base paths and it has a legitimate shot to be elite impact as he adjusts to MLB pitching. He is just so strong, fast, and coordinated with a bat in his hands. He has an uncannily unique ability to make meaningful contact to gaps. In his first committed season to exploring his power stroke we witnessed fabulous results. Then we factor in how ridiculously dangerous he has gotten on the base paths in a year's time...it will all figure itself out. My main over-arching point is I personally think where he ends up playing defensively won't matter all that much. I see him moving around. His bat is what needs to be the consistent mainstay - if that makes sense.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

This may be the first indication that we could avoid Super-2 games with Tyler Black. I’d been a bit pessimistic on the timing of Black and Gasser promotions. 

 

I like the usage of "...one possibility." I am going to take this as a sign Matt Arnold sees what I see: Black is skilled enough to be part of a platoon. And he is skilled enough to play more than one position. And his bat and his base running is his primary position. Just a lil bit of innuendo on my part. Little bit.😅

[RobertCrawley]

Arnold asked about trading Burnes.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2023/10/10/brewers-general-manager-matt-arnold-expects-pitcher-corbin-burnes-to-return-in-2024/71125782007/

There will be ample speculation, but Arnold said he anticipated Burnes being back next season.

“We'll see how it plays out over the course of the offseason, but I would expect him to be here next year,” Arnold said. “We can never close the door on any conversations, as you guys know. That's just the reality of where we are, but we know that he is a very, very valuable member of our franchise.”

[ClosetBrewerFan]

3 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

Arnold asked about trading Burnes.

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2023/10/10/brewers-general-manager-matt-arnold-expects-pitcher-corbin-burnes-to-return-in-2024/71125782007/

There will be ample speculation, but Arnold said he anticipated Burnes being back next season.

“We'll see how it plays out over the course of the offseason, but I would expect him to be here next year,” Arnold said. “We can never close the door on any conversations, as you guys know. That's just the reality of where we are, but we know that he is a very, very valuable member of our franchise.”

This just sounds like GM speak to me.  ...  I may trade him but I don't want to announce that I will because that will lower his value. 

[MrTPlush]

7 hours ago, Lathund said:

I can't see any scenario in which the Brewers wouldn't be all over 4 years $50m for Adames. Great AAV, short enough to only cover his age 32 season. 

I think you are underestimating how quickly a SS ages…especially one providing most of their value based on defense.

Javier Báez provided a 32 defense value per fangraphs, best at the position in 2019. He was at 12.5 in 2023. Heck, he had like a 7 in 2021

Lindor went from 21 to 11 since 2021

Correa 15 to 4 since 2021

He may only be 28, but a lot of guys lose that elite defense in their late 20s. Guys usually don’t put up those big time defensive number that long. His bay may not regress much by 32, but that really isn’t where Adames provides a ton of his value.

 

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

Assuming Woodruff's injury is not season ending....

-Tender: Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Houser, Milner, Williams, Taylor, Wilson, Payamps

-Non-tender: Tellez, Toro, Lauer

-Option: exercise on Mark Canha

-Trade(s): Burnes to LAD for E. Sheehan, J. Vargas; Williams to BAL for C. Mayo

-Free Agent: Sign Wade Miley for 1 year 8 million, 

C: Contreras, Henry

1B: Canha/Black

2B: Turang, Monasterio

SS: Adames

3B: Mayo/Black

LF: Frelick

CF: Chourio (PPI)

RF: Mitchell/Taylor/Wiemer

DH: Yelich

SP: Woodruff, Peralta, Miley, Sheehan, Houser, Ashby, Gasser

RP: Payamps, Uribe, Megill, Milner, Peguero, Wilson

Cash in on Burnes and Williams to lay the foundation for a prolonged World Series window. Chourio, Mayo and Black to a lesser extent will provide the extra pop that was missing this year. Sheehan gives your potential top of the rotation arm to replace Burnes and eventually Woodruff. Still a team that would be a co-favorite in the NL Central. 

 

[wallus]

10 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Assuming Woodruff's injury is not season ending....

-Tender: Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Houser, Milner, Williams, Taylor, Wilson, Payamps

-Non-tender: Tellez, Toro, Lauer

-Option: exercise on Mark Canha

-Trade(s): Burnes to LAD for E. Sheehan, J. Vargas; Williams to BAL for C. Mayo

-Free Agent: Sign Wade Miley for 1 year 8 million, 

C: Contreras, Henry

1B: Canha/Black

2B: Turang, Monasterio

SS: Adames

3B: Mayo/Black

LF: Frelick

CF: Chourio (PPI)

RF: Mitchell/Taylor/Wiemer

DH: Yelich

SP: Woodruff, Peralta, Miley, Sheehan, Houser, Ashby, Gasser

RP: Payamps, Uribe, Megill, Milner, Peguero, Wilson

Cash in on Burnes and Williams to lay the foundation for a prolonged World Series window. Chourio, Mayo and Black to a lesser extent will provide the extra pop that was missing this year. Sheehan gives your potential top of the rotation arm to replace Burnes and eventually Woodruff. Still a team that would be a co-favorite in the NL Central. 

 

If either the Dodgers or Orioles want to go along with those trades, you make them regardless of the status of Woodruff.

[TURBO]

14 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

This just sounds like GM speak to me.  ...  I may trade him but I don't want to announce that I will because that will lower his value. 

yup, a bunch of blah blah blah...

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

yup, a bunch of blah blah blah...

Yeah he learned from the best (Stearns).