Ohtani to Dodgers

[nate82]

3 hours ago, bigred said:

The players union will never allow it, but MLB needs a hard salary cap and floor. NOW! 🤦‍♂️

If a cap comes with a floor the players union will be somewhat in favor of it.  The problem is the owners won't agree to a floor.  Also some type of revenue sharing with the MLBPA would need to be agreed on and the owners have not shown any interest in sharing any revenue. 

[treego14]

The MLB needs to break down the league into Divisions 1-3 based on market size much like the NCAA does based on school size (or something similar too that).

The unfairness of the MLB now is way too glaring as it is.

[brewerfan82]

I'll take the opposite view on this one, I love Ohtani. It's awesome to see him get this deal and it's felt like the Dodgers were destined to be his home for a few years now. And I am happy he'll be in a market and on a team that will showcase him for the entire sport.

We never had a chance with him, so I'm happy to let the Dodgers throw unprecedented amounts of cash at him in order to get him. It's been shown time and time again that the teams with the highest payrolls and the teams that win the offseason don't automatically win the World Series. The Dodgers have one championship in the last 36 years and it was in a pandemic shortened season. The Yankees have one championship in the last 24 years. The Padres, Mets, and Phillies have spent "stupid money" acquiring players and have 1 combined championship in the past 37 years. Heck Ohtani was already paired with "the other" best player in MLB for 6 years and they had no playoff appearances to show for it.

I'm not opposed to a more level playing field, but the payroll discrepancy in baseball is also one of its "charms" and part of the reason its been so enjoyable watching the Brewers become a consistent playoff team despite that disadvantage. There are ways to build a successful team that doesn't include signing the most expensive free agent each year.

Now let's watch Chourio put up bigger numbers for a fraction of the cost the next 10 years and enjoy laughing every minute of it! 🥳🤞

[homer]

A billion dollar deal might not be that far away. 

[HarveysWBs]

7 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I'll take the opposite view on this one, I love Ohtani. It's awesome to see him get this deal and it's felt like the Dodgers were destined to be his home for a few years now. And I am happy he'll be in a market and on a team that will showcase him for the entire sport.

We never had a chance with him, so I'm happy to let the Dodgers throw unprecedented amounts of cash at him in order to get him. It's been shown time and time again that the teams with the highest payrolls and the teams that win the offseason don't automatically win the World Series. The Dodgers have one championship in the last 36 years and it was in a pandemic shortened season. The Yankees have one championship in the last 24 years. The Padres, Mets, and Phillies have spent "stupid money" acquiring players and have 1 combined championship in the past 37 years. Heck Ohtani was already paired with "the other" best player in MLB for 6 years and they had no playoff appearances to show for it.

I'm not opposed to a more level playing field, but the payroll discrepancy in baseball is also one of its "charms" and part of the reason its been so enjoyable watching the Brewers become a consistent playoff team despite that disadvantage. There are ways to build a successful team that doesn't include signing the most expensive free agent each year.

Now let's watch Chourio put up bigger numbers for a fraction of the cost the next 10 years and enjoy laughing every minute of it! 🥳🤞

I agree with the spirit of this, for sure.  The randomness of the new playoff format makes it harder for the moneybag teams to entirely keep the moneyball teams down, but the Dodgers and Yankees seem intent on testing that theory.  I look forward to seeing them fail, as I don’t think they’ll win more than a single title between them in the next decade.  The sport just doesn’t work that way.  If the lower third of the league stops reaching World Series and league champions series altogether in the next ten years or so, I’ll revise my position accordingly, though.

That being said, there will always be a strong case for a salary cap in this sport, and mlb is going to continue to look ridiculous when the nfl and nba both have thriving leagues making owners and players incredible amounts of money and garnering major advertising attention while also having salary caps.  But I don’t think Ohtani is the poster boy for the salary cap argument.  The guy is simply a unicorn.  If we revivified Babe Ruth at the peak of his powers, he would command such a salary.  They are incomparable cases.

[RobertCrawley]

I'm just glad he didn't end up with the Cubs and that new manager of theirs.

[torts]

39 minutes ago, homer said:

A billion dollar deal might not be that far away. 

I only see 700 million because he's elite on both sides so getting $350 million for the bat and $350 million for the arm, I don't see any player matching what he does.  He's essentially two players

[bigred]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

If a cap comes with a floor the players union will be somewhat in favor of it.  The problem is the owners won't agree to a floor.  Also some type of revenue sharing with the MLBPA would need to be agreed on and the owners have not shown any interest in sharing any revenue. 

You're not wrong. Neither wants to compromise with the other, which is exactly what our Federal Regime also refuses to do. SMDH Then they wonder why it doesn't get better. 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, torts said:

I only see 700 million because he's elite on both sides so getting $350 million for the bat and $350 million for the arm, I don't see any player matching what he does.  He's essentially two players

Yeah, not quite a 50/50 split, but Judge got 9/360 being two years older, so let’s say something like $425M for ten years of Shohei the hitter.

Rodon just got 6/162 being one year older, but also not hurt at the time of signing, so maybe something like $175M for pitcher Ohtani.

Then it sounds like deferrals will knock at least $100M if not more off the present day value.

Believe Soto turned down $440M, and will be hitting FA five years younger than Judge, so gotta think he’ll be shooting for something like 14/600.

To hit a billion it would pretty much need to be a perfect storm of a two way kid drafted out of HS or developed from LA as a teenager who hit free agency at like 26 to get an extra three four years tacked on Ohtani’s deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

5 hours ago, homer said:

A billion dollar deal might not be that far away. 

Different sport? Ohtani is the maximum get MLB player contract we'll see for at least another 6+years,  because who is playing rookie ball two way with Ohtani's talent?  The true only way is seeing like a 16yr contract that still needs 52+M.  14 at 62M yr.  The original I read on mlbtr I believe was Trout when combined still not reaching 500M.

 

How the Dodgers will manage this 10yr future will be interesting. Luxury tax this how many seasons?  Or will they strip payroll a few times to sit below luxury? They do the later, that's a hefty investment in to 1 player that they need to manage below whatever the luxury tax line is. So then it's like Brewers max payroll+Ohtani that season. 

[Underachiever]

The deferred money softening the AAV really pisses me off. Talk about having your cake and eating it, too. I was thinking that whoever signed Ohtani would at least be somewhat handcuffed by the luxury tax. 

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, Underachiever said:

The deferred money softening the AAV really pisses me off. Talk about having your cake and eating it, too. I was thinking that whoever signed Ohtani would at least be somewhat handcuffed by the luxury tax. 

So they should announce it as a 25-35 yr contract imo if they scoot payroll limits because 3-5M is deferred annually beyond what should be 70M per year 10yr guaranteed paid. (Think heard 45M this year, meaning 25M above 70M yearly would need to spread over 9 remaining years with my logic)  Is Yelich getting deferred? Or 26?M this year all counting vs Brewers payroll?

[Jopal78]

Deferred money or not, it’s all real dollars and the Dodgers’ folly. Despite extreme financial clout they haven’t a  won a full season championship since Ronald Reagan was President. 
 

The Yankees weren’t the first team to hand out a 100 million dollar contract, a 200 million dollar contract or even a 300 million dollar contract, but they traded for each of those players (Kevin Brown, A-Rod and Stanton) in pursuit of a championship and have one title to show for it in the last 23 years. 
 

Point being, it’s very rare that the team making these mega deals doesn’t regret it soon after the ink is dry. 
 

Which isn’t to say Ohtani isn’t worth it given the non-performance based revenue he will generate, just from a team on the field perspective I bet the Dodgers regret it before his contract is half over 

[DuWayne Steurer]

53 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

 

Which isn’t to say Ohtani isn’t worth it given the non-performance based revenue he will generate, just from a team on the field perspective I bet the Dodgers regret it before his contract is half over 

Right. They'll make their money on shirts, jerseys, shirsys, and all sorts of what - have- you. Which is the point of a business after all. They'll recoup the 700 million. And probably continue making money off of his NIL well after he's done playing. Will they win a title? Maybe. Possibly. It's even likely within the next 4-5 years, I'd wager. But certainly not guaranteed. 

But they'll almost certainly make money off the guy. Which is the point, of course. 

[jay87shot]

How many championships do they need to win to justify the deal.

I see Ohtani as a 10/300 hitter (as a DH only he is worth less than Judge and some of the other superstars. As a pitcher I would have a hard time giving a guy who is going to miss the year because of a second elbow injury over 100 million.

Maybe add in 100 million for publicity/advertisment and other fringe benefits. Still puts it 200 million short.

[Axman59]

28 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I see Ohtani as a 10/300 hitter (as a DH only he is worth less than Judge and some of the other superstars.

 

But keep in mind if he gave up pitching and wasn't rehabbing his elbow, after 2024 he could easily play OF or 1B. Perhaps not CF but he could absolutely contribute to a defense.

[Axman59]

The more I read about the deal the less stupid it looks to me. Personally, I think Andrew Friedman is the best baseball executive in MLB so I don't usually expect him to make dumb decisions. Between the extra revenue from Japanese business endeavors and the deferrals, I think the Dodgers will make the contract work. Plus, unlike the Blue Jays, they are one of the teams most able to absorb a bad contract (if it were to come to that) due to the massive amount of revenue they generate.

I feel bad for Blue Jays fans who were done dirty by jump the gun baseball writers.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

Right. They'll make their money on shirts, jerseys, shirsys, and all sorts of what - have- you. Which is the point of a business after all. They'll recoup the 700 million. And probably continue making money off of his NIL well after he's done playing. Will they win a title? Maybe. Possibly. It's even likely within the next 4-5 years, I'd wager. But certainly not guaranteed. 

But they'll almost certainly make money off the guy. Which is the point, of course. 

Do they really make so much more off him though? Do dodger fans buy an Ohtani jersey plus another Dodger player jersey or do they just buy Ohtani's? There will no doubt be significant sales of people who follow him alone. But he'd have to reach a Michael Jordan level of personal following to make that contract worth it. I don't think any baseball player does that. He may sell by far the most merch and the way it's counted would make it appear like Ohtani was the one who brought that revenue in but if that person would have bought one anyway it wasn't generated by him.

Had he gone to a team that doesn't sell out every game or has a tv contract coming up soon he'd have a larger personal impact. Given the Dodgers sell out their stadium anyway it doesn't really drive more attendance to games and their TV contract is set in stone until something like 2039 or so. For him to make that much extra he'd have to sell an awful lot of merchandise to people who wouldn't have bought anything other than his. I just don't see how even he makes enough people who don't normally buy merchandise suddenly shell out premium dollars for a t-shirt and cap to justify the contract.

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Do they really make so much more off him though?

I think the Dodgers will.  Ohtani is the closest thing to an NBA superstar where fans regardless if they are Dodgers fans or not will buy his jersey or merchandise.  The last player who had a following like this was Trout and before that it was Griffey.  MLB typically doesn't have these types of players because it is more of a local market only unlike the NBA where it is mostly a player driven market.  The NFL also doesn't have an Ohtani or a LeBron like phenom where consumers will buy a players jersey and don't really follow the team the player is playing for.  MLB, NFL and the NHL are all local market driven as there are very few to none where you will have someone or multiple players be their own market.

So I believe the Dodgers will definitely make a lot more off of Ohtani than they will of Freeman and Betts.  It is possible Ohtani could reach just general Dodgers merchandise levels.  You can't look at it as just Dodgers fans buying Ohtani merchandise but also non Dodgers fans which as I have stated previously is usually not the case for MLB teams.  Ohtani is just in a different class than any other player in MLB right now.  The only one who rivals him is Trout and he isn't even close to being on the same level as Ohtani is.

[GAME05]

14 hours ago, nate82 said:

If a cap comes with a floor the players union will be somewhat in favor of it.  The problem is the owners won't agree to a floor.  Also some type of revenue sharing with the MLBPA would need to be agreed on and the owners have not shown any interest in sharing any revenue. 

I remember George Steinbrenner noting, and he made a good point, that he spent the maximum of what he was able to on player payroll, and adding revenue sharing only meant that [the Marlins owner] just got to pocket that much more money.

The only way I see to fix it is a financial audit of every team with a heavy revenue sharing distributed among every team, and then a mandated player payroll range based on that. I've heard the argument that a team with a lot of young players may not need to spend all that much, but there's always room to add a FA, even on a one-year deal to meet any payroll minimums. Maybe the owners get something like keeping 100% of their concessions money to keep encouraging strong attendance.

I recall all this was a big issue toward the end of Selig's tenure. And his "solution" was to add playoff teams to say "see, now small-market teams have a better chance." Heck, last year owners wanted 45% of teams to make the playoffs. But ultimately doesn't MLB want this, that the Dodgers and the Yankees of the baseball world have the best financial chance at making the WS and getting that sweet viewership money? A Brewers/Royals WS would have twelve viewers.

[stalton]

The part I wonder is if (when?) Ohtani can't pitch at an elite level, how much more outcry there will be paying that much for a DH

[Thurston Fluff]

58 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I think the Dodgers will.  Ohtani is the closest thing to an NBA superstar where fans regardless if they are Dodgers fans or not will buy his jersey or merchandise.  The last player who had a following like this was Trout and before that it was Griffey.  MLB typically doesn't have these types of players because it is more of a local market only unlike the NBA where it is mostly a player driven market.  The NFL also doesn't have an Ohtani or a LeBron like phenom where consumers will buy a players jersey and don't really follow the team the player is playing for.  MLB, NFL and the NHL are all local market driven as there are very few to none where you will have someone or multiple players be their own market.

So I believe the Dodgers will definitely make a lot more off of Ohtani than they will of Freeman and Betts.  It is possible Ohtani could reach just general Dodgers merchandise levels.  You can't look at it as just Dodgers fans buying Ohtani merchandise but also non Dodgers fans which as I have stated previously is usually not the case for MLB teams.  Ohtani is just in a different class than any other player in MLB right now.  The only one who rivals him is Trout and he isn't even close to being on the same level as Ohtani is.

That's my point. MLB is more local than national. Ohtani will get a large share of the non-local sales but that isn't a major portion of total sales. While Ohtani will a larger share of the local sales the major portion of those will come at the expense of other players not extra local sales created by him. Taking sales away from Freeman and Betts doesn't improve the dodgers bottom line. The one area he will help is international sales. How large that is I don't know but it will be fairly large. Large enough to make up the cost is another question.

 

[nate82]

7 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

That's my point. MLB is more local than national. Ohtani will get a large share of the non-local sales but there isn't a major portion of total sales. While Ohtani will a larger share of the local sales the major portion of those will come at the expense of other players not extra local sales created by him. Taking sales away from Freeman and Betts doesn't improve the dodgers bottom line.

If you go from 1% to 2% that is still an increase in sales.  It maybe a small amount but it is still an increase.  Even if the Dodgers current out of market sales is 3% if Ohtani increases that to 5% that is still a win for the Dodgers and will be an improvement over what they are doing now.  So the Dodgers bottom line will improve how much it improves no idea but it will improve but probably just at a smaller rate.  The out of market sales is what is going to improve here not the in market maybe for a season it improves for in market but out of market sales is what the Dodgers will see an increase in. 

[Samurai Bucky]

Ok... I root for a small market team.  This opens up the door for even more competitive imbalance.  Regardless of how people want to spin it, it is simply equine fecal matter.

[Axman59]

The big money the Dodgers will make from the Japanese market is advertising--not jersey and t-shirt sales.