Arby news

[NOMAAM]

That puts the brewers a bit south of 110 million.  How much does that leave for any addition.   Guesses?

[nate82]

9 minutes ago, NOMAAM said:

That puts the brewers a bit south of 110 million.  How much does that leave for any addition.   Guesses?

None, unless Mark A decides to invest more into the team and also gets buy in from the other investors.  Yearly reminder that Mark A is only the majority owner of the Brewers.  

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Woodruff was a free agent, Contreras is in arbitration, they are two completely different markets.

The relevant comparisons are Woodruff versus other injured free agent starting pitchers, and Contreras versus other first year Arby’s catchers.

Will Smith got $5.25M, Adley Rutschman got $5.5M, Cal Raleigh got $5.6M.

The Brewers offer is perfectly in line with the established market.

Every other Brewers player reached an agreement, Contreras chose not to meet in the middle. He only has himself to blame if he goes and gets his feelings hurt unnecessarily.

This might all be true, but souring Contreras on any future deal with the Brewers is a really bad idea.  Just because the things you say are true, doesn't mean he won't be a giant cry baby and cause some issues.

[homer]

12 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

16 other players also filed for arb. Some notable ones.

 

Cubs - $15M, Kyle Tucker - $17.5M

Nationals - 10.3M, Nate Lowe - $11.1M

Padres - $7.325M, Michael King - $8.8M

Cardinals - $2.85M, Brendan Donovan - $3.3M

Red Sox - $3.5M, Jarren Duran - $4M

Yankees - $2.05M, Mark Leiter Jr - $2.5M

Cardinals - $2.45M, Lars Nootbaar - $2.95M

Cardinals - $1.925M, Andre Pallante - $2.1M

Angels - $975K, Jose Quijada - $1.14M

Rays - $1.3M, Taylor Walls - $1.575M

Dodgers - $2.05M, Alex Vesia - $2.35M

Angels - $5.8M, Luis Rengifo - $5.95M

Some of the biggest spenders in baseball on this list. The Yankees and Red Sox not willing to pony up 500K? Angels 150K?  Cardinals trying to go cheap on everyone? 

[sveumrules]

38 minutes ago, TURBO said:

This might all be true, but souring Contreras on any future deal with the Brewers is a really bad idea. 

My hunch is Contreras wants to be the first $200M catcher topping Joe Mauer's current record deal of 8/184, so any future long term deal with the Brewers is essentially a pipe dream anyway. 

If the Brewers offered that today they could structure it something like $6M - $10M - $15M for his three remaining Arby years with say a $4M signing bonus which would leave 5/165 ($33M annually) for his "free agent" years covering what would be his age 30 to 34 seasons.

Under that structure Contreras first year at $33M would line up with the last guaranteed year of Yelich at $26M. Over the five years that Contreras would hypothetically be making $165M, Chourio is on the books for 4/57 then a couple $25M team options.

No doubt the Brewers can afford it, the only question is how much sense it does or doesn't make to tie up such a large amount of resources on the most risky position in the lineup when you already have that player under control for three discounted seasons (& could potentially deal him for a haul at some point along that timeline instead of paying him big money for his thirties).

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, homer said:

Some of the biggest spenders in baseball on this list. The Yankees and Red Sox not willing to pony up 500K? Angels 150K?  Cardinals trying to go cheap on everyone? 

Good news is the Cubs apparently aren't serious about retaining Tucker after this year (but we already knew that).

[TURBO]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Good news is the Cubs apparently aren't serious about retaining Tucker after this year (but we already knew that).

Or, they are working on an extension. 

Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the Cubs did not reach an agreement with Kyle Tucker and will go to an arbitration hearing.

 

The superstar outfielder filed at $17.5 million while the Cubs filed at $15 million. There’s still a chance that the two sides could meet somewhere in the middle before going to a hearing — or come to an agreement on a long-term contract extension. Tucker has already indicated that he’s open to an extension, so expect there to be dialogue between the two sides soon if they haven’t discussed it already.

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

Or, they are working on an extension. 

Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the Cubs did not reach an agreement with Kyle Tucker and will go to an arbitration hearing.

 

The superstar outfielder filed at $17.5 million while the Cubs filed at $15 million. There’s still a chance that the two sides could meet somewhere in the middle before going to a hearing — or come to an agreement on a long-term contract extension. Tucker has already indicated that he’s open to an extension, so expect there to be dialogue between the two sides soon if they haven’t discussed it already.

So what you're saying is not agreeing to a salary before the deadline doesn't necessarily mean anything with regards to long term contract possibilities?

[NOMAAM]

55 minutes ago, nate82 said:

None, unless Mark A decides to invest more into the team and also gets buy in from the other investors.  Yearly reminder that Mark A is only the majority owner of the Brewers.  

Wasn’t opening day last year a touch short of 120 million or am I off.

[nate82]

Just now, NOMAAM said:

Wasn’t opening day last year a touch short of 120 million or am I off.

Not the best site for team salary but Spotrac has the Brewers estimated at about $108mm and Fangraphs has the Brewers at $116mm.  The Brewers opened last year at $105mm.  2023 is when the Brewers had an opening day payroll of $118mm.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2023/04/06/mlb-team-payrolls-2023-highest-lowest-mets/11612107002/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/04/03/mlb-team-payrolls-2024-highest-lowest-mets/73139425007/

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/overview/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total2

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/brewers?season=2025

[NOMAAM]

2 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Not the best site for team salary but Spotrac has the Brewers estimated at about $108mm and Fangraphs has the Brewers at $116mm.  The Brewers opened last year at $105mm.  2023 is when the Brewers had an opening day payroll of $118mm.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2023/04/06/mlb-team-payrolls-2023-highest-lowest-mets/11612107002/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/04/03/mlb-team-payrolls-2024-highest-lowest-mets/73139425007/

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/overview/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total2

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/brewers?season=2025

Kinda why I think they’ll still add an infielder and perhaps pitcher.  Neither exciting btw.  But still a decent cash outlay.  Something short of Gary Sanchez.

[AKCheesehead]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

You left out HR and RBI (in favor of triples?) two of the most important traditional stats to the panel and two where Raleigh has an edge over Contreras. 

I don’t believe the panel will look at William’s numbers and think he’s earned 900K more than Big Dumper.

Fascinating, I had no idea Najeh Davenport had taken up baseball.

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, homer said:

Some of the biggest spenders in baseball on this list. The Yankees and Red Sox not willing to pony up 500K? Angels 150K?  Cardinals trying to go cheap on everyone? 

Arbitration is hard. It's still a business at the end of the day and every agent and player are watching how you operate. If you bend the knee to Player X for $150k this year and you probably had the leverage to win the case... Good luck next year getting anyone to settle at a fair number. 

Because of Burnes' situation I think Brewers fans will always have a permanent fear of how these things can go wrong.

All situations are different. My opinion is sometimes you need to protect your team/fans and "pay up"... and sometimes you need to protect your business and "pay down".

Tough game of chess that you hope ends without any broken or missing pieces.

[sveumrules]

Will be interesting to see how the next three years play out for Contreras, Cal Raleigh and Adley Rutschman with all three set to hit free agency at the same time.

LAST THREE YEARS

Raleigh (1612 PAs | 13.9 WAR)
10.0 BB% | 28.3 K% | 117 wRC+
+29.4 FRM | +33 DRS | 28.4 CS%

Rutschman (1795 PAs | 13.3 WAR)
12.0 BB% | 16.2 K% | 121 wRC+
+16.5 FRM | +24 DRS | 21.9 CS%

Contreras (1666 PAs | 13.2 WAR)
10.8 BB% | 22.1 K% | 130 wRC+
+14.9 FRM | +7 DRS | 18.9 CS%

Pretty close across the board with Raleigh the best defender / worst hitter, Contreras the opposite and Adley the middle man.

Steamer likes Contreras (128 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR) and Raleigh (115 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR) a scooch better than Rutschman (124 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR) for 2025, while ZiPS has them projected at Raleigh (121 OPS+ | 4.8 WAR), Rutschman (120 OPS+ | 4.6 WAR), and then Contreras (122 OPS+ | 4.2 WAR).

Raleigh is the oldest of the three with the lowest profile so he might seem like the most likely to take an extension, but he is also the only Boras client of the three. 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

None, unless Mark A decides to invest more into the team and also gets buy in from the other investors.  Yearly reminder that Mark A is only the majority owner of the Brewers.  

Don’t even think he’s a majority owner. Think he owns at most 40% of the team. 

[Underachiever]

What is Contreras' choice? Get his feelings hurt, not play as well, and affect future earnings? If the Brewers offer him the most money when he hits free agency, the 2025 arb hearing will be only a memory. I felt the same way when Burnes was whining. His only choice was to pitch as well as he possibly could. 

And William, if you get to the playoffs again, don't OPS .333. 

[Brian]

https://wtaq.com/2025/01/10/milwaukee-brewers-sign-5/

[umphrey]

Well I think the Burnes thing was an aberration anyway. You don’t hear a similar story too often with other teams and players. He talked earlier in his career about how the mental game was so important to him. I don’t think the brewers can afford to let that preclude them from ever going to Arby again. 

[StearnsFTW]

15 hours ago, wallus said:

Well that isn't great. Hey William, don't go to the hearing if there is one okay?

Especially if you're a giant baby. 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Don’t even think he’s a majority owner. Think he owns at most 40% of the team. 

Correct.  He's the principal owner, not the majority owner.

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

You left out HR and RBI (in favor of triples?) two of the most important traditional stats to the panel and two where Raleigh has an edge over Contreras. 

I don’t believe the panel will look at William’s numbers and think he’s earned 900K more than Big Dumper.

I meant exactly what I said, Raleigh has more homers and RBI but Contreras has him beat in very thing else in “traditional counting stats”. Maybe the panel of arbitrators are all sabrematicians, but more likely they’re probably all just lawyers. 

None of this is rocket science and there’s no “pressuring players” to go to hearing etc.

Contreras wants to make as much money as possible- that is after all the goal. I’m sure his representation did an analysis and opined he has a good shot at winning, so he decided to go to hearing. 

[markedman5]

Owners offered to do away with arbitration and made several alternative proposals that the union rejected during the last collective bargaining agreement. 
 

As long as the process still exists both sides have to live with it. If you basically decide you’re never going to take star players to a hearing then they will just ask for more……which hurts everyone but is especially hard on the small market teams.

Ps The Brewers have won their last 3 hearings so clearly they have been making the more fair offers according to the arby panel.

[rickh150]

Hader bellyached about useage and $ before arby…and basically then told CC his terms for useage in the pen. The hijack was on.  This partially or possibly led DS to preemptively trade him, our closer, while in first place during a penant chase….unheard of.

Burnes was a complete crybaby about his arby, and the Brewers were deemed money pinchers by national pundits and their own fans because of it.  That dialogue still is there regardless how good they have been lately and unfair it is. And Burnes was traded possibly in part because of this dialogue while good guy Adames was kept the year.

Woodruff gets paid a long term contract that essentially pays him $17.5 million guaranteed for this year….and we all have serious doubts about him pitching in the the rotation and/or pitching well for any long duration this season.  

And now Contreras……….will be shocked if this is a nothing burger. I hope for no drama with this, but would not be surprised considering recent $ decisions and drama with top talent. There has to be an art with $ negotiations/PR at some level, and we can’t pretend that we have found that balance yet.

It would be nice to give Contreras HIura’s $2.2 mil given to play AAA exclusively while we shuffled through endless DH in 2023 who hit .658 while Hiura hit .765 the year prior…..but hey, what’s 2.2 mil….or $17.5 mil apparently.

 

 

 

 

[sveumrules]

33 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

It would be nice to give Contreras HIura’s $2.2 mil given to play AAA exclusively

Looping Hiura into this is some serious Pepe Silvia level stuff, bravo.

[markedman5]

Contreras and Brewers settle