Brewers-Cubs NLDS Game Two Thread

[RobertCrawley]

43 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

When there are unions involved, seniority and merit are typically the exact same words. That is to say, only seniority matters.

You've made up an entire scenario in your head without facts.

There are several criteria for selecting playoff umpires. You can look it up.

Unions are good.

[thebruce44]

12 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Don't know if anyone else saw it, but Contreras was tipping pitches for Vaughn on that at bat where he hit the 3 run homer.  

How does that work with the pitch com now?

[titanrick]

3 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

How does that work with the pitch com now?

You can sometimes see the pitcher's grip on the ball inside his mitt if he's not being careful, which could tell you if it's off-speed or not.

[CheezWizHed]

2 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

How does that work with the pitch com now?

I don't know what SomewhereInTime is referring to, but Contreras was at 2nd and could've been in position to see in the glove, wrist angle, or other slight differences in pitch setups.  But I didn't see anything from Contreras in the video...

 

 

[thebruce44]

If I take anything from the pitching strategy last night its that they don't view Q as a legit post season starter at this point in time.

[TURBO]

13 hours ago, Baldkin said:

Was at the game. Brewers fans are hungry. 

 

...and like Murphy says, it's hard to stay hungry!

@HarryDoyle

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Lovely to be up 2-0, and great to go through this thread.

Stray observations:

1) I was wrong about Priester coming in. I still think I would have started him, but Mis really showed up and made an impact. Nothing wrong with having your second best guy starting Game 3, especially up 2-0. He could get shelled. But it's a good spot to be in.

2) I thought Chad Patrick's inning was low-key the turning point of the game. It was our first 1-2-3 inning, and it really set us up for the final third, not just in terms of having our best guys available, but in terms of matchups and where the Cubs were in their batting order. 

3) Then, Koenig, Megill, and Uribe prevented the lineup from turning over and giving Hoerner/Suzuki ABs with men on. Major hats off to the pen.

4) Chuorio looked really awkward running and fielding, but what a sweet, sweet swing.

5) Some very good defense today, especially from Vaughn and Sal. 

6) Turang hasn't looked very good at the plate, outside of his first AB. I think he's going to have to get a big hit for us in Chicago.

Go Brewers!!

[ToolShed55]

Conspiracy theories aside, if you don't want players stealing signs, don't allow them to get to 2nd base!

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

My final thought on this game is that I really saw Contreras' impact as a receiver. Not just in terms of pitch framing, but in terms of calling a game and communicating with his pitchers. Intangible, but you won't convince it didn't make an impact with Mis and Patrick, not to mention everyone else. Plus, after his basehit in the first, he was making sure that dugout was up and ready to capitalize.

[kestrel79]

I was at the game, foul territory by the left field foul pole. Man the Vaughn homer was awesome. It got almost kinda quiet over by us, people just watching that ball hang up there wondering where it's going to land and come down. Man was it loud during all 3 homers.

All over the stadium it felt like over 9/10 Brewers to Cubs fans around by me.

[Sixtolezcano]

3 hours ago, ToolShed55 said:

Conspiracy theories aside, if you don't want players stealing signs, don't allow them to get to 2nd base!

Since they have been doing that for around 150 years.

[Underachiever]

2 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

I was at the game, foul territory by the left field foul pole. Man the Vaughn homer was awesome. It got almost kinda quiet over by us, people just watching that ball hang up there wondering where it's going to land and come down. Man was it loud during all 3 homers.

All over the stadium it felt like over 9/10 Brewers to Cubs fans around by me.

I was in 233, so, like you, I got to watch Vaughn, Contreras, and Suzuki's homers land. That Vaughn shot just kept carrying...

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Since they have been doing that for around 150 years.

Yeah I cant believe anyone cares about stealing signs.

I certainly hope they're trying. 

[valpocrewsader]

14 hours ago, dlk9s said:

My son uses Space Mutiny MST3K names for most of his online gaming screen names.

As an MST3K fan who's apparently never seen this particular episode, this is amazing...

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

23 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I'm not advocating for it, but... wouldn't that be Misiorwoski's BP day?

 

I mean, to be clear, I'm happy with what he's given us this series, but... he could throw an inning if we NEEDED it. 

I don't trust him like that yet, but... just hypothetically. 

Probably. But I'm guessing there are a lot of BP options they'd rather go to if looking for one inning. If a typical outing for him in the post season is what we saw Monday, then I don't see him working in either game in Chicago.

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Probably. But I'm guessing there are a lot of BP options they'd rather go to if looking for one inning. If a typical outing for him in the post season is what we saw Monday, then I don't see him working in either game in Chicago.

Well, again, I didn't expect it(don't expect it)... I was just saying I don't think Mis is "down" for Gm3 because of his innings pitched in Gm2.

 

And I don't we're anywhere near seeing a "typical" outing from him. I love the kid, I'd sign him long term... but he's still the same guy who can lock you down as he can go out there and walk 4 guys in an inning.

He was probably 2 balls away from the BP getting up when he walked the... first batter and then got down 2-0 to the next(I think he ended up walking 2 that 3rd inning, but he came back from 2-0, got a K and then the ground out. 

Point is, I think he's got a short leesh but the potential to give us... almost bulk pitcher type innings if he's on. 

 

He could easily be the X-factor for us this post-season. He and Patrick. 

[Dragonbait]

17 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

You've made up an entire scenario in your head without facts.

There are several criteria for selecting playoff umpires. You can look it up.

Unions are good.

Counter argument....

 

Angel Hernandez 

[SeaBass]

14 minutes ago, Dragonbait said:

Counter argument....

 

Angel Hernandez 

Counter, counter argument. It's not like folks stopped being critical of umpires once he retired.

[BrewerFan]

21 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I really can't agree with the sentiment that Murphy's decision to go with the bullpen game was a master class move.

In my book it was a gamble that ended up working out because the offense and the 6 pitchers who followed Ashby all came through with near flawless performances. From the contemporaneous comments on the game thread I think there are a lot of posters who would agree with me if they are honest with themselves.

If Vaughn hadn't come up with the 3 run HR in the first and/or any of the 6 pitchers who followed Ashby had had blowup outings, he would have been roasted for tinkering with pitchers and putting them in something other than their normal roles. 

If he wanted to give the back end relievers an inning of work that could have been done easily after letting Priester go 4 innings and pulling him earlier if he ran into trouble.

If Misioroski had walked several batters, like he has often done recently in his first innings, the Brewers would have found themselves in a 3-3 tie or trailing in the third inning with 3 pitchers, including 2 of the top relievers, already used up. 

I wonder  if Murphy is now planning to use Quintina and Priester as a "stack" in game 3. 

 

I don't get how. 

It worked... to...perfection. 

If Misiorowkski struggles. Well... he didn't. And if he does, they bring in Patrick who was dominate earlier.

Ashby was also squeezed badly. In fact, it was one of the worst umped games of the playoffs and I thought 9 of the 10 calls that were the worst were against the Brewers. 

He threw a CB that was middle and EASILY caught the top 3rd of the zone and it was called a strike in a 1-1 count that would have made it 1-2...which completely changes the outcome. 

What if... is a game you can play at ad infinitum.

 

Coming into the game I thought... do not limit Ashby. People were saying "save him for Gm3." I didn't agree, I thought he'd pitch well... and he pitched alright. They hit a 3R HR on a ball out of the zone. That's... just a great piece of hitting, but he could have been out of that inning. 

 

-If Vaughn doesn't hit a 3R HR, they win the game 4-3...
-If Mis struggles, you go to Patrick earlier and he was throwing 98, hitting his spots and had really good movement. 
-If the Brewers don't jump out to a 4 run lead, they're very likely running when they got a base runner like Durbin, Ortiz, Turang...instead, they d✅idn't try and manufacture a run. 

 

But here's what decides if it's a master class... it's really the same as when you're a play caller in Football.

Did it work? 

-Ashby gave up 3R HR. Didn't work.❌
-Mears came in(again, one of the worst missed strike calls)-Got out of the 2nd ✅
-Misiorowski was overpowering and the Cubs were just completely outmatched.✅
-Patrick-Again, dominant and still fresh for Gm3.✅
-Koenig threw a nice 7th inning AND came back and got the Cubs best hitter out to start the 8th.✅
-Megill... who has 1 appearance in the last... what, 6 weeks, he came in and got two easy outs. ✅
-Uribe.. who also hadn't pitched in 8 days and even before that, hadn't pitched much.✅
-Trusted Chourio- He put them away with the 3R HR. ✅

You save your CLEAR #2 pitcher for Gm3 vs -✅

 

Most importantly, Brewers up 2-0 AND SHUT THE CUBS DOWN✅✅

 

If you're the manager and nearly button you push... is the right button... I don't see how it's anything BUT a master class!

Also, I really doubt he's planning on going with Quintana after Priester in a "stack" game. That...doesn't make any sense. A lefty starter, that made sense. They have their two best hitters #1 and #3, both of whom are lefties. 

So if he choose to go with Koenig to start this game, that'd make sense. I don't think he will, but it'd make sense. 

You have to be ready for a Gm4 if needed though, and I only see Quintana coming in if Priester struggles. 

[formerlybis]

19 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Did it work? 

-Ashby gave up 3R HR. Didn't work.❌
-Mears came in(again, one of the worst missed strike calls)-Got out of the 2nd ✅
-Misiorowski was overpowering and the Cubs were just completely outmatched.✅
-Patrick-Again, dominant and still fresh for Gm3.✅
-Koenig threw a nice 7th inning AND came back and got the Cubs best hitter out to start the 8th.✅
-Megill... who has 1 appearance in the last... what, 6 weeks, he came in and got two easy outs. ✅
-Uribe.. who also hadn't pitched in 8 days and even before that, hadn't pitched much.✅
-Trusted Chourio- He put them away with the 3R HR. ✅

 

This goes back to my point that the players executing matters more. Here's my thoughts about these moves if we didn't know the outcome:

-Ashby starting: more likely to work than not; I'll say 67% (and the 33% happened)

-Mears: 80%

-Miz: easily the most risky; I'd say my thoughts were 25%, but with upside reward (and the 25% hit)

-Patrick: 70%, and getting him out after one undramatic inning was ideal. My faith in him is increasing with each outing.

-Koenig: 80%, and starting the 8th was fully justified

-Megill: 90% - Coming in with a 4-run lead, bases empty and one out was perfect (and a no-brainer). He needed the work, and this was a medium-low leverage situation. If I'm being honest, I don't fully trust he's high-leverage worthy at the moment.  

-Uribe: 80% - a couple of concerns for not being higher. First, rust - turned out to be unfounded. Second, we had used all the other trusted relievers, so if he did get into trouble, we'd only have Anderson or Gasser to try and salvage it. A 4-run cushion, though, so it is pretty unlikely to get into that much trouble. No way would I have used anyone else there, though. 

That's obviously unscientific, but if you use my probabilities, the chances of all the positive outcomes that turned out well hitting are .8*.25*.8*.9*,8 = 11.5%. Take out my 25% chance on Miz being successful and it's still 46% (roughly 50-50). The players are the ones who increase the odds

 

[BrewerFan]

14 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

This goes back to my point that the players executing matters more. Here's my thoughts about these moves if we didn't know the outcome:

Well... of course it comes down to the players executing more. We've managed games perfectly and lost with Hader giving up multiple runs in multiple playoffs on walk-offs to lefties or with Devin Williams in to close out games.

 

But... the manager puts them in the position. He trusted Misiorowski because we DESPERATELY needed someone to come through for us and take up some of Woody's innings. 

Even in Football where scheme matters and has a bigger impact on a game, it's still about the players executing. 

Phil Jackson isn't winning rings with George Hill, Gary Trent Jr and Royce O'Neal in the triangle.

But it's hard to say Murphy hasn't pressed the right buttons when... ALMOST everything he's going with is working... almost perfectly. 

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

 

I don't get how. 

It worked... to...perfection. 

If Misiorowkski struggles. Well... he didn't. And if he does, they bring in Patrick who was dominate earlier.

Ashby was also squeezed badly. In fact, it was one of the worst umped games of the playoffs and I thought 9 of the 10 calls that were the worst were against the Brewers. 

He threw a CB that was middle and EASILY caught the top 3rd of the zone and it was called a strike in a 1-1 count that would have made it 1-2...which completely changes the outcome. 

What if... is a game you can play at ad infinitum.

 

Coming into the game I thought... do not limit Ashby. People were saying "save him for Gm3." I didn't agree, I thought he'd pitch well... and he pitched alright. They hit a 3R HR on a ball out of the zone. That's... just a great piece of hitting, but he could have been out of that inning. 

 

-If Vaughn doesn't hit a 3R HR, they win the game 4-3...
-If Mis struggles, you go to Patrick earlier and he was throwing 98, hitting his spots and had really good movement. 
-If the Brewers don't jump out to a 4 run lead, they're very likely running when they got a base runner like Durbin, Ortiz, Turang...instead, they d✅idn't try and manufacture a run. 

 

But here's what decides if it's a master class... it's really the same as when you're a play caller in Football.

Did it work? 

-Ashby gave up 3R HR. Didn't work.❌
-Mears came in(again, one of the worst missed strike calls)-Got out of the 2nd ✅
-Misiorowski was overpowering and the Cubs were just completely outmatched.✅
-Patrick-Again, dominant and still fresh for Gm3.✅
-Koenig threw a nice 7th inning AND came back and got the Cubs best hitter out to start the 8th.✅
-Megill... who has 1 appearance in the last... what, 6 weeks, he came in and got two easy outs. ✅
-Uribe.. who also hadn't pitched in 8 days and even before that, hadn't pitched much.✅
-Trusted Chourio- He put them away with the 3R HR. ✅

You save your CLEAR #2 pitcher for Gm3 vs -✅

 

Most importantly, Brewers up 2-0 AND SHUT THE CUBS DOWN✅✅

 

If you're the manager and nearly button you push... is the right button... I don't see how it's anything BUT a master class!

Also, I really doubt he's planning on going with Quintana after Priester in a "stack" game. That...doesn't make any sense. A lefty starter, that made sense. They have their two best hitters #1 and #3, both of whom are lefties. 

So if he choose to go with Koenig to start this game, that'd make sense. I don't think he will, but it'd make sense. 

You have to be ready for a Gm4 if needed though, and I only see Quintana coming in if Priester struggles. 

You're essentially adopting the position that if the team wins the manager made the right moves.

Applying that logic, Murphy pulled a major blunder last October by bringing in Williams to pitch the ninth inning against the Mets and allowing him to face Alonso with 2 men on base.

Managers make many decisions based on percentages, but most of those percentages are unknown. There are always going to be "what if" questions when something goes wrong.

IF (and I realize I am using that dirty word) the Brewers had lost that game 3-1, the criticism of the decision to start Ashby would have been scathing. The decisions to start Ashby and to throw Misioroski into a tie game in the third inning led to a win in no small part because of things that had nothing to do with those decisions, most importantly the Brewers scoring 7 runs

[Team Canada]

16 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

IF (and I realize I am using that dirty word) the Brewers had lost that game 3-1, the criticism of the decision to start Ashby would have been scathing.

You're probably right, but if we lose 3-1 the pitchers aren't the problem.

 

 

[SeaBass]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

You're probably right, but if we lose 3-1 the pitchers aren't the problem.

 

 

Shhh, the critics want to ignore that bit of logic.

[hawing]

20 hours ago, Underachiever said:

I was in 233, so, like you, I got to watch Vaughn, Contreras, and Suzuki's homers land. That Vaughn shot just kept carrying...

From 217 I thought Vaughn's hit was too high and not quite deep enough, until it landed.