Let's Talk Brewers' Outfielders

[sveumrules]

Last year Brewers' outfielders posted a 109 wRC+ (6th) | +10.2 BsR (3rd) | +2 DRS (10th) | +13 FRV (4th) | 10.4 WAR (5th).

Over the three years with Arnold at the helm they are at a 105 wRC+ (12th) | +39.6 BsR (2nd) | +59 DRS (4th) | +52 FRV (2nd) | 29.8 WAR (5th).

I think we can all agree that Chourio (1,139 PA | 115 wRC+ | 6.8 WAR) and Frelick (1,317 PA | 101 wRC+ | 6.4 WAR) are penciled into two spots while Perkins / Collins might be best served as luxury fourth outfielders, and Mitchell is hard to count on with his various health issues over the years.

At the same time, I was curious how those last three stacked up relative to the rest of the outfielders around MLB. Since Mitchell debuted the earliest, and has the least amount of playing time on account of those injuries, I thought I'd use him to set the parameters for the player pool.

So, going back to Garrett's debut in 2022 it looks like there have been 184 players with at least 400 PA playing outfield. That works out pretty nicely to just a hair over six outfielders each for all 30 teams, which is pretty much the minimum you need to carry on the 40 Man at any given point for coverage.

Let's go chrono and start with Mitchell. Here are some of his pertinent rankings on the above linked leaderboard...414 PA (184th) | 34.3 K% (179th) | 9.4 BB% (55th) | .369 BABIP (1st) | 103 wRC+ (71st) | +5.0 BsR (47th) | +6.0 DEF (37th) | 2.7 WAR (90th). Pretty insane that despite having the least playing time on the list Mitchell has still managed to put up production above the halfway point. The K% and BABIP are just added layers of volatility to go along with the limited availability.

Perkins comes in at 753 PA (117th) | 10.2 BB% (44th) | 82 wRC+ (157th) | +4.7 BsR (49th) | +14.2 DEF (17th) | 2.8 WAR (89th). Blake has the double whammy of not much playing time, plus some of the worst overall offensive production on the leaderboard, yet the walks, base running and especially the defense are enough to get him in above the halfway point too.

Lastly there's Collins with 424 PA (178th) | 13.0 BB% (12th) | 121 wRC+ (25th) | +1.1 BsR (93rd) | -1.8 DEF (64th) | 2.4 WAR (97th). Isaac doesn't quite have the speed or defensive chops of Blake or Garrett but he takes the walks to a whole other level, and again manages a production ranking way over that of his playing time. I think most would agree Isaac isn't a true talent 121 wRC+ kind of guy going forward, but his 24.2% line drive rate is 5th on that same leaderboard which gives him a pretty solid foundation along with the walk rate.

Putting that all together, I'd never say never when it comes to the Brewers front office and wheeling & dealing, but I'd be kinda surprised if they gave up a bunch of future value to go out and try to acquire a more proven starting calibre OF for that third spot over mixing and matching with some combo of Mitchell, Perkins, and Collins to open the season then adjusting from there if needed on account of injury or under performance.

[igor67]

I like the methodology. Looking at WAR you discover the 3 players cluster right around the 90 mark. Which theoretically would be the 'worst' starting OFer mark. So the numbers match that intuition about where they rank, however in terms of them it's also worth realizing that the downside of WAR in this case is that if we were treating them like starters those numbers (except Mitchell) would be higher.

[DR28]

I still believe in Mitchell! He just needs to stay healthy because if he does, watch out!

Chourio/Mitchell/Frelick OF is so damn solid!

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, DR28 said:

I still believe in Mitchell! He just needs to stay healthy because if he does, watch out!

Chourio/Mitchell/Frelick OF is so damn solid!

While I believe Mitchell will be solid if he can stay healthy I'd like to see him start in AAA. He's been out so much for so long I think everyone would be better served to let him get back to every day work in a less demanding atmosphere.

[jay87shot]

I am on board with running it back with Collins, Chourio, and Sal as our main 3 starters. I would love to trade Perkins for whatever prospect we can get and have Mitchell, Lockridge, and Yeli as OF depth with Black and/or Bauers as emergency (with some minor league AAA free agents). It would be great to get a CF upgrade but it doesn't seem like there are great options for that. 

[tmwiese55]

Yea if you can't have find anything better there is nothing wrong with running it back.  They're all good at D and are competent with the bat.   However, since Frelick is such a slap/contact hitter with little power I'd really prefer to find another who is a better hitter to balance that out a bit.   It's not the worst thing run back, but it would be nice to pick up some power/O in that 3rd spot to help with our perpetual October issue.  There's also the flex to have Frelick or Chourio play CF to accommodate the ideal spot for the new person.

Just can't bank on Mitchell at all. But a fair route since you have the other ok guys as depth could be to give him 2 months to see if he can stay healthy/perform. Then look at the deadline if needed, assuming he or none of them step up to take the job.

[TURBO]

Personally, I am not including Mitchell in any future plans.  He's proven time and time again he can't be counted on..........at all.

It would be great if he can come through and offer something, but it's foolish to think it's going to happen without a major back-up plan.

I agree, anything with Mitchell has to start in AAA, and if he proves he still has something to offer us, bring him back into the fold, but to count on him as one of our top 3 OF going in to 2026 is highly irresponsible.

Perkins is NOT an every day player, I no longer trust Collins as an every day guy either.  The way he tanked at the end of 2025 was pretty monumental, and then there is his late bloomer status, I simply don't trust him.

We need another OF that can hit some homers, drive in runs, and hit someplace in the top 5 of the batting order.  Collins and Perkins aren't those guys, and like I said earlier, neither is Mitchell until he proves otherwise.

 

[Roderick]

Can we send Mitchell to AAA or can he refuse and choose FA?  If we can, stick him down in AAA to make sure his swing is back after all these years.....

I think between the three OFs, we will be fine.

To start the season, platoon Perkins against lefties and Collins against righties. 

Frelick to CF on days Collins is playing.  It isn't the best thing to yoyo Frelick, but he can handle it.

And hopefully Mitchell is better than both and healthy and is CF everyday.

I'd rather spend my money elsewhere I think (or hold for trading deadline).  We might find out that Collins only had a bad month and is pretty darn good or Mitchell comes back and is pretty darn good.  

 

[endaround]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Personally, I am not including Mitchell in any future plans.  He's proven time and time again he can't be counted on..........at all.

It would be great if he can come through and offer something, but it's foolish to think it's going to happen without a major back-up plan.

I agree, anything with Mitchell has to start in AAA, and if he proves he still has something to offer us, bring him back into the fold, but to count on him as one of our top 3 OF going in to 2026 is highly irresponsible.

Perkins is NOT an every day player, I no longer trust Collins as an every day guy either.  The way he tanked at the end of 2025 was pretty monumental, and then there is his late bloomer status, I simply don't trust him.

We need another OF that can hit some homers, drive in runs, and hit someplace in the top 5 of the batting order.  Collins and Perkins aren't those guys, and like I said earlier, neither is Mitchell until he proves otherwise.

 

Collins did not fall off, he just wasn't played.  He had a 97 wRC+ in September. He "tanked" less than Duran (89 wRC+ in September) which everyone thinks is the guy who can put the Brewers over the top. There are reason to doubt Collins is the best hitting outfielder going forward but his September return isn't why.

[umphrey]

I am expecting Yelich to DH pretty much every day but I like constructing a roster where he could get sent to LF more often if they acquire a 1B/DH bat somewhere along the line

[markedman5]

If Mitchell is healthy ( obviously a big if) I think he will be your starting centerfielder……

[Brian]

12 hours ago, endaround said:

Collins did not fall off, he just wasn't played.  He had a 97 wRC+ in September. He "tanked" less than Duran (89 wRC+ in September) which everyone thinks is the guy who can put the Brewers over the top. There are reason to doubt Collins is the best hitting outfielder going forward but his September return isn't why.

I Agree:  Just looked at his numbers and they were better than I thought they were. But the headlines didn't help his cause. "Isaac Collins gave birth to a child and lost the ability to hit a baseball." 

[DR28]

12 hours ago, markedman5 said:

If Mitchell is healthy ( obviously a big if) I think he will be your starting centerfielder……

Yes absolutely.... Just wish the dude could stay healthy, because he would be a 20/20+ guy. 

[TURBO]

12 hours ago, markedman5 said:

If Mitchell is healthy ( obviously a big if) I think he will be your starting centerfielder……

Right, and when he gets hurt, they need to have a back-up plan in place, because we all know he is going to spend excessive time on the IL at some point during the season.  If we go in with only Perkins as our back-up CF, we will be in offensive trouble once again.

[Roderick]

14 hours ago, umphrey said:

I am expecting Yelich to DH pretty much every day but I like constructing a roster where he could get sent to LF more often if they acquire a 1B/DH bat somewhere along the line

Disagree.  The less of Yelich in the OF, the better his back holds up during the season.  I hope and assume Contreras gets more time off behind the plate, so he can DH against the tough lefties and Yelich is available to pinch hit those games.

[long ball]

Chourio and Frelick- obvious every day starters. Would be ideal if one of them could transition to CF full time, but I’d be hesitant to count on that. 
 

mitchell- I’d suspect he has minimal trade value, he has options, and his arb projection is barely above the minimum. When he’s heathy, he’s probably our best current option in CF, but I wouldn’t count on anything more than that right now so we will need to plan for his injuries. 
 

Collins- I’d prefer he gets developed into a true utility man who can play corner outfield, 3b, and 2b as needed. The switch hitting ability and the walk rate give him a high floor and roster flexibility. I would not want to count on him as a 400+ PA player though. He has options. 
 

perkins- I’d probably be ready to move on from him if he is super 2 eligible, but he’s probably the only guy we currently have who could go play CF the majority of the time when Mitchell inevitably gets hurt. That alone probably makes him the 5th outfielder-he does have options as well. 
 

yelich- he’s a DH. I wouldn’t count on him playing anymore OF than he did in 2025. 
 

lockridge- perfectly fine minor league depth. Can fill in at all 3 spots and has 2 options left. 
 

now I think this leaves us in a spot to be selective. If we run into a situation like the Grandal, Moustakas, or Quintana situation where a guy we like goes late into the off season and can be signed to a 1 year deal, we have the space and flexibility to add an outfielder. Grisham maybe takes a pillow contract? Yastrzemski, Refsnyder, Kepler, Lane Thomas- all on the older side and maybe a 1 year deal with a lower price point. Tough to know who will linger on the market at this point. Maybe Andujar?

[Thurston Fluff]

This is probably not going to be a popular take but I wouldn't be opposed to giving Black a legitimate shot in left. I know the conventional thought is the Brewers have soured on him or Murphy doesn't trust him but I'm not so sure conventional wisdom is right in this case. It may have been as simple as wanting to keep him playing everyday to improve his defense and not wanting to yo-yo him between AAA and the majors.

[wntrtxn21]

2 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

This is probably not going to be a popular take but I wouldn't be opposed to giving Black a legitimate shot in left. I know the conventional thought is the Brewers have soured on him or Murphy doesn't trust him but I'm not so sure conventional wisdom is right in this case. It may have been as simple as wanting to keep him playing everyday to improve his defense and not wanting to yo-yo him between AAA and the majors.

I think that ship has sailed. I don't see Murphy even considering Black in his plans. Black needs to get traded and maybe find a utility spot on the bench with somebody. 

[wallus]

I'd agree on Black if he was a good defender but unfortunately he is not.

[Thurston Fluff]

39 minutes ago, wallus said:

I'd agree on Black if he was a good defender but unfortunately he is not.

That's what people said about Durbin's defense at third. I think people forget defense can improve and sometimes that's why a player is left in the minors playing everyday. 

[AKCheesehead]

I'm shocked to not see any discussion of Steward Berroa in the OF plans.

[wiguy94]

55 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

That's what people said about Durbin's defense at third. I think people forget defense can improve and sometimes that's why a player is left in the minors playing everyday. 

Durbin was regarded as solid defensively at 2B so it was more of a question if he could translate that to 3B so I wouldn't really say that's similar to Black who doesn't have any defensive home. You hope he could handle LF but that's still a bit of a mystery. I wasn't impressed with his play in LF in AAA last year.

[BrewerFan]

On 11/12/2025 at 3:33 PM, TURBO said:

 

Perkins is NOT an every day player, I no longer trust Collins as an every day guy either.  The way he tanked at the end of 2025 was pretty monumental, and then there is his late bloomer status, I simply don't trust him.

He was a rookie(though an old rookie), he had a great June, July, August. He starts getting sporadic playing time and he had a poor Sept with a .664 OPS(on a .219 BABIP) in less than 60 PAs. 

I think calling that "tanking" is... pretty harsh. 

.919 OPS- June
.848 OPS- July
.847 -August
Those are also the three months he got the most PAs. 

That's... a real quick leash. Even during what you're calling a monumental tank, he still had a .345 OBP and put the ball in play(10BB/11Ks). 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

21 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Durbin was regarded as solid defensively at 2B so it was more of a question if he could translate that to 3B so I wouldn't really say that's similar to Black who doesn't have any defensive home. You hope he could handle LF but that's still a bit of a mystery. I wasn't impressed with his play in LF in AAA last year.

IF you've seen him play in AAA your better qualified than I am to judge his progress. I doubt most people who judged his defense have the same amount of recent first hand experience to make a judgement. Which is why I used Durbin as a comparison. I saw some of the same sort of thing when people decided Turang didn't have a strong enough arm to be an elite defensive shortstop  despite him coming up as a defense first shortstop.

[Jim French Stepstool]

So much of the OF being productive across the board seems to rely on Mitchell coming through, which is disconcerting due to his inability to stay on the field as well as the swing-and-miss issues. Nevertheless, I think he makes the roster assuming he gets through March in one piece. More than enough natural ability to keep from pulling the plug just yet. 

As long as uncertainties re Mitchell remain, Perkins will have a role here. This assumes money or player capital won't be going towards OF help, which would be my guess. After '26, perhaps Luis Lara fills a Perkins-type role.

AFA a vet FA lasting deep into the offseason for a cheap price, I wouldn't mind Refsnyder as a righty PH & perhaps a once-a-week start vs a LHP. But he doesn't fit the defensive profile that the organization likes.