NL Central Discussion

[Brewin]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The Brewers failure to beat up on the doormats like Oakland, Detroit and Washington comes back to haunt them in a tight division race. They’re going to have to win their division by beating the likes of the Rangers, Twins, Phillies, etc. 
 

Outside head to head matchups with Milwaukee, the Cubs have six games left against winning teams (3 with Atl, 3 with SF). 

The Cubs schedule is soft, but that is not accurate as they also have 4 games at the Reds, 3 @ Arizona, and 4 @ Wrigley versus Arizona. The Reds and Dbacks are over .500 as of today.

In fact for the rest of the season (excluding H2H matchups) the Cubs have 17 games versus +.500 teams and the Brewers have 15 as of today

 

[StearnsFTW]

Will the Cardinals win 70 games?

 

I say no.

[nate82]

21 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Will the Cardinals win 70 games?

 

I say no.

They would need to win 15 games and they have 5 vs the Pirates, 6 vs the Phillies, 6 vs the Padres, 3 vs the Braves, 6 vs the Reds, 3 vs Orioles and 7 vs the Brewers.   Only the Pirates and Padres are under .500.  They have 31 games against playoff contenders if you include the Padres otherwise only 25 games against playoff contenders.  They would need to win the remaining games against the Pirates for 5 wins and then pick up 10 wins against the Phillies, Padres, Braves, Reds, Orioles and Brewers.  They would need to go 10-21 against those teams which is possible but not all that likely.  If they only pick up 2 or 3 against the Pirates then that means winning 12 or 13 against the playoff contenders which gets even more difficult. 

And I was being questioned for stating the Cardinals were out of it back in June and July because that one time the Cardinals were able to make a comeback and make it into the playoffs. 

[StearnsFTW]

11 hours ago, nate82 said:

They would need to win 15 games and they have 5 vs the Pirates, 6 vs the Phillies, 6 vs the Padres, 3 vs the Braves, 6 vs the Reds, 3 vs Orioles and 7 vs the Brewers.   Only the Pirates and Padres are under .500.  They have 31 games against playoff contenders if you include the Padres otherwise only 25 games against playoff contenders.  They would need to win the remaining games against the Pirates for 5 wins and then pick up 10 wins against the Phillies, Padres, Braves, Reds, Orioles and Brewers.  They would need to go 10-21 against those teams which is possible but not all that likely.  If they only pick up 2 or 3 against the Pirates then that means winning 12 or 13 against the playoff contenders which gets even more difficult. 

And I was being questioned for stating the Cardinals were out of it back in June and July because that one time the Cardinals were able to make a comeback and make it into the playoffs. 

Plus they stink and have stunk all year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have become a strong believer over the years in the Cardinals' late-season magic juju pixie dust that allows them to suddenly go from mediocre to the '27 Yankees this time of year, so there is still a little cautiousness in my head. But man that team looks bad, and has all year. They simply don't have the pitching to go on any sort of sustained run. 

[Outlander]

Tough stretch for the Reds, 11 games in 10 days, then play the Cubs for three games. Cubs have been playing easy teams but when they get to the Brewers will be playing the end of 13 games in a row. The Brewers on the other hand have had a ton of days off lately including two this week.

[nate82]

Still waiting on that Cardinals run that was supposed to happen.

[torts]

12 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Plus they stink and have stunk all year.

And it's awesome

[sveumrules]

14 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Still waiting on that Cardinals run that was supposed to happen.

If the Brewers end the season 18-18, the Cardinals would have to go 33-2 to finish higher in the standings.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

If the Brewers end the season 18-18, the Cardinals would have to go 33-2 to finish higher in the standings.

But that one run in 2011 when they had like 2% odds...

[LouisEly]

Since the beginning of July, the Cubs are 27-18.  The Brewers are 26-18.

The Cubs have gained 0.5 games over their last 45 games.

[Jopal78]

It is fascinating to see the Cardinals continue to start Wainwright and his 8+ ERA every 5th day.
 

Wainwright doesn’t have MLB caliber numbers but as a franchise icon they can’t release him. Then in an attempt salvage something from a terrible season, they’re trying to get him his 200th career win by keeping him in the rotation only for him to hand them an automatic  loss most times out. 

[SeaBass]

Does anyone think the Cardinals actually want to get back into the race? I'm sure they aren't thinking about a long term rebuild but they need more than just a few patches.

I'd imagine that's one reason Wainwright is still being trotted out there to pitch. He's a warm body that can give them some innings while they go nowhere.

[Jopal78]

24 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Does anyone think the Cardinals actually want to get back into the race? I'm sure they aren't thinking about a long term rebuild but they need more than just a few patches.

I'd imagine that's one reason Wainwright is still being trotted out there to pitch. He's a warm body that can give them some innings while they go nowhere.

I’m sure they “want” to be in contention; when the pundits predict you’ll finish first and you crash as one of the worst teams in baseball is usually the type of situation where managers and executives lose their jobs. 
 

That being said, it’s mid-August, not June. The math doesnt work for the Cardinals anymore even under the rosiest of view, and they’re obviously aware of it.
 

I do think they’d like Wainwright to get 200 wins, so they have a milestone to reflect on in an otherwise terrible season. A guy with an ERA over 8 and a WHIP of nearly 2 and a k:bb ration of 1.5:1 shouldn’t otherwise be pitching every 5th day in the majors, any younger minor leaguer could probably best that lack of production. 

[sveumrules]

Wainwright has 3 W in 17 GS this year, with the last one coming two months ago, and he needs to pick up two more dubs to get to 200 with what…six starts left?

That first start outta the break has gotta sting, left after five up 5-2 but the bullpen blew the lead in the 6th/7th.

He’s been credited with the loss in each of his five starts since.

They might be better served moving him to the pen and bringing him into tie games to try and vulture those last two? 

[BruisedCrew]

9 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Since the beginning of July, the Cubs are 27-18.  The Brewers are 26-18.

The Cubs have gained 0.5 games over their last 45 games.

True, but since July 20 they are 20-9 and the Brewers are 15-14. So, in their last 29 games they have gained 5 games. 

[LouisEly]

21 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

True, but since July 20 they are 20-9 and the Brewers are 15-14. So, in their last 29 games they have gained 5 games. 

And that includes a stretch of 10 games against the Cardinals and the White Sox where they went 8-2 against two teams that are 55-72 and 49-77.

Excluding those two bad teams, they are 19-16 since the beginning of July.

[dlk9s]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

It is fascinating to see the Cardinals continue to start Wainwright and his 8+ ERA every 5th day.
 

Wainwright doesn’t have MLB caliber numbers but as a franchise icon they can’t release him. Then in an attempt salvage something from a terrible season, they’re trying to get him his 200th career win by keeping him in the rotation only for him to hand them an automatic  loss most times out. 

He's retiring after this season, so there's no point in releasing him and they certainly would never have done it earlier in the season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't think the Cubs have enough pitching to stay hot enough to pass the Brewers provided Milwaukee keeps getting even average production offensively now that the Brewers are running out Burnes, Woody, and Peralta more often than not on the mound..  

[BruisedCrew]

59 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

And that includes a stretch of 10 games against the Cardinals and the White Sox where they went 8-2 against two teams that are 55-72 and 49-77.

Excluding those two bad teams, they are 19-16 since the beginning of July.

Yeah, if you exclude the games they’ve won, the Cubs haven’t done that well.

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make. By any objective measure the Cubs have been very good over the last month. They’ve beaten up on bad teams and won 3 of 4 against the Reds and won 3 game series against the Braves and Jays. 
 

Maybe they can’t keep it up, but they have been trending in a good direction. 

[Underachiever]

11 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Yeah, if you exclude the games they’ve won, the Cubs haven’t done that well.

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make. By any objective measure the Cubs have been very good over the last month. They’ve beaten up on bad teams and won 3 of 4 against the Reds and won 3 game series against the Braves and Jays. 
 

Maybe they can’t keep it up, but they have been trending in a good direction. 

Plus, for any Brewer fan to say another team has an easy schedule, when Milwaukee is what, 3-9? against Oakland, Colorado and Kansas City, just makes me laugh. A win over the A's is equal to a win over the Braves in the standings. Not sure if a loss to Oakland feels worse than a win over the Braves feels good. Since March 30, the Brewers have won 3.5 more games than the Cubs. That seems important.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I don't think the Cubs have enough pitching to stay hot enough to pass the Brewers provided Milwaukee keeps getting even average production offensively now that the Brewers are running out Burnes, Woody, and Peralta more often than not on the mound..  

Stroman missing even more time is pretty huge. 
 

Every start Steele is setting a new career high in IP. Wonder if he can maintain this level the further he gets over his previous career high in IP.

Hendricks has been a steady mid rotation starter.

Taillon and Smyly haven’t been good.

Assad’s underlying numbers are horrible.

They really need that offense to continue playing lights out the rest of this year and so many guys on that team are screaming for regression.

[sveumrules]

Cubs pretty much need to go 4-2 (to get the tiebreaker) or 5-1 (to close the gap outright) in their remaining games against the Brewers.

Anything short of that would make things a lot tougher for them.

Tankathon has their remaining strength of schedule pretty close with the Brewers at .486 vs .498 for the Cubs.

[StearnsFTW]

11 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Cubs pretty much need to go 4-2 (to get the tiebreaker) or 5-1 (to close the gap outright) in their remaining games against the Brewers.

Anything short of that would make things a lot tougher for them.

Tankathon has their remaining strength of schedule pretty close with the Brewers at .486 vs .498 for the Cubs.

All true.  The only thing I would note is that the Cubs' opponents' winning percentage is pretty heavily skewed by the 3 game Atlanta set in which Atlanta will likely be resting guys/setting up their rotation for the playoffs.

I still think the Brewers win the division by 5 games+ and always have.  That, of course, is dependent on the team's health, particularly the pitchers.

 

[wiguy94]

22 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

All true.  The only thing I would note is that the Cubs' opponents' winning percentage is pretty heavily skewed by the 3 game Atlanta set in which Atlanta will likely be resting guys/setting up their rotation for the playoffs.

I still think the Brewers win the division by 5 games+ and always have.  That, of course, is dependent on the team's health, particularly the pitchers.

Will Atlanta have to worry about setting up their rotation for the playoffs? Regular season ends on 10/1. NLDS starts on 10/7 which is a full 5 days off. I don’t think they would need to do that.

 

I think a better way of looking at the schedule comparison is by number of series left against potential playoff teams/not playoff teams rather than win%. Cubs have 7 series vs potential playoff teams and 4 vs not playoff teams. Brewers have 5 series vs potential playoff teams and 6 series vs not playoff teams.