2024 Brewers Rotation

[AKCheesehead]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

Thankfully, Miley's injury doesn't seem too significant. It looks like they're just going to have to get his pitch count built up, and they only have half of spring training to do so. Do they choose to keep him in extended spring training for a week or two, or do they put him on the MLB roster with a strict pitch count and one of the 'long reliever/spot starter" guys ready to take over when the limit is reached?

He's a lefty, and Junis and Ross are righties. If they have the roster spot, pairing a Miley start for 3-4 innings with Junis/Ross coming in to pitch for several innings wouldn't be the worst scenario. It just depends on whether they'd rather use the roster spot for another reliever until Miley is 100%.

This is what I'm hoping they are able to do, provided they can feel good about getting him up to, I don't know, 60-70 pitches.  With the way Miley pitches, that should be good for about 4 innings, and I think that could be fine for a couple of starts with a planned tandem.  Of course there's some risk in that, there always is.  

[Ro Mueller]

 

[nate82]

I am not going to be disappointed if Gasser doesn't make the opening day roster but if he isn't on the team by May or June I am going to be very disappointed. 

[jay87shot]

The Braves sent Bryce Elder down to AAA. He was great the 1st half last year (not good 2nd) and is young and controllable. He only throws like 90 so I doubt he would have a extremely high value. The Braves are pretty stacked but he could be an interesting trade option, the do have Ynoa, Smith-Shawver, Waldrop, Dodd among others as depth. Maybe just a couple prospects or a decent reliever like Peguaro and a throw in piece.

[tmwiese55]

On 3/7/2024 at 1:16 PM, tmwiese55 said:

Seems if both are down to having to take Hoskins/Bellinger style deals we should be in the conversation, these are the spots we should be open to spending and taking some risks (since its way less than massive 6-8 year deals) like the Moose/Grandall year.

I'm not one with all this data like many here have but just off top of my head isn't Snell a bit of fly ball pitcher so our stadium isn't ideal for him (assuming he wants to have a 1 year show it season).  I don't really recall Montgomery's profile and am not too confident in my Snell memory, but if anyone had that data/info I'd be interested to know.  If not, no worries as both seem like long shots. 

IDK, if I'm Snell (or I guess both) I'd be all about San Fran. Big pitcher park, team that's been trying to spend money, has to be something that can be worked out.

Get some right.      

I'd still like to see MKE add one of the mid level guys listed and I'd hope are at least talking to Montgomery since this might be a sign he also has to do a 1 and 1 deal.     I'm cautiously optimistic on DL Hall though to surprise and be legit good right away to fill a bunch of the gap left by Burnes/Wood

[HarveysWBs]

On 3/17/2024 at 6:40 PM, nate82 said:

I am not going to be disappointed if Gasser doesn't make the opening day roster but if he isn't on the team by May or June I am going to be very disappointed. 

Assuming they don’t bring in another starter from outside of the organization, I don’t know how they get through April without him up. They play thirteen days in a row from 4/5 through 4/17. I will be shocked if he hasn’t had at least his cup of coffee by that point.

[wntrtxn21]

On 3/18/2024 at 12:05 PM, jay87shot said:

The Braves sent Bryce Elder down to AAA. He was great the 1st half last year (not good 2nd) and is young and controllable. He only throws like 90 so I doubt he would have a extremely high value. The Braves are pretty stacked but he could be an interesting trade option, the do have Ynoa, Smith-Shawver, Waldrop, Dodd among others as depth. Maybe just a couple prospects or a decent reliever like Peguaro and a throw in piece.

I don't see any giving up much of anything for Elder, certainly not Peguaro and a couple of prospects. Elder was horrible after the break last year and awful in his one playoff start. He was terrible this spring too.  Either the league caught up with him quickly, or something happened that the Braves can't fix. No matter what, I wouldn't give up much more than a mediocre prospect.

[LouisEly]

On 3/17/2024 at 6:40 PM, nate82 said:

I am not going to be disappointed if Gasser doesn't make the opening day roster but if he isn't on the team by May or June I am going to be very disappointed. 

Certainly the way that Joe Ross has been pitching.  At this point I don't see Ross as more than long relief.

I'm guessing that with off days on 3/29, 4/1, and 4/4 they aren't going to need a 5th starter much less a 6th starter until the 2nd week of April (April 14th would likely be the first day a 6th starter would be needed) and we'll see Gasser by April 14th.

[Playing Catch]

On 3/17/2024 at 6:40 PM, nate82 said:

I am not going to be disappointed if Gasser doesn't make the opening day roster but if he isn't on the team by May or June I am going to be very disappointed. 

Especially because Gasser will need every drip and drop of experience and knowledge from Miley... a near perfect MLB pathway for Gasser.

[brewmann04]

Go to sign a starter your going need the extra arm during the season 

[duewizard]

So Peralta, Hall, Rea, Junis, Ross to start?

Move Ross to the pen when Miley is ready?

[bensheeps]

 

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

So does it seem likely that Ashby’s velocity will never return to the mid to upper 90s that he was at before the injury or is it possible it returns in another year or so?

 

[Playing Catch]

14 hours ago, markedman5 said:

So does it seem likely that Ashby’s velocity will never return to the mid to upper 90s that he was at before the injury or is it possible it returns in another year or so?

 

I would imagine it's too soon to say. Even guys that haven't spent the last year injured sometimes won't get back to their expected velocity until after the first few starts of the season. 

I guess I don't remember how hard he threw before but 92-94 doesn't seem too far off. Maybe a couple of clicks?

[Underachiever]

Gasser got hit pretty hard last night. Still a fun game. Came back from 7-0, ended up 7-6 with Ortiz batting as the winning run in the bottom of the 9th.

[SF70]

28 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I would imagine it's too soon to say. Even guys that haven't spent the last year injured sometimes won't get back to their expected velocity until after the first few starts of the season. 

I guess I don't remember how hard he threw before but 92-94 doesn't seem too far off. Maybe a couple of clicks?

In ‘22, Ashby’s ave FB velo was 95.9 on the 4-seam and 95.8 on his sinker, so he’s 3 ticks off, currently.

 

[brewmann04]

just a quick question how many here are worried about the Rotation heading into the season

[Outlander]

It's certainly something to be worried about, it's different usually being in the top 10 and now they are likely in the bottom 10 for rotations. Their relief is in theory still good but they lost their best reliever. Not real confident their offense will pick up the slack, so add it all up and not likely a real successful season. Transition wise it will be good for the younger players to get experience but a very average season is upcoming. If everybody else in the Central is average or worse may not be a bad thing but there is usually one team that rises to the top and not looking like it will be the Brewers.

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, Outlander said:

It's certainly something to be worried about, it's different usually being in the top 10 and now they are likely in the bottom 10 for rotations.

Last year’s rotation was only Top Ten on account of the defense behind them with their 11.2 FIP based WAR ranking 12th. Throw in the +68 DRS from the fielders and the rotation’s 15.8 runs allowed based WAR came in 4th.

2022 rotation wasn’t Top Ten in anything. Even with 77 GS from Corbin, Woody and Freddy they still finished 13th in both fWAR (11.4) and rWAR (12.0). 

2021 was the only full season during the Brewers recent run of success where they had a legit dominant rotation with their 20.2 fWAR and 22.3 rWAR both ranking 2nd.

2018 and 2019 rotations were both 20th by fWAR (8.3 and 8.5 respectively), but middle of the pack by rWAR at 11.2 (15th) and 9.9 (16th).

I don’t doubt the rotation will take a step back from last year’s results, but their peripherals weren’t that great to begin with and the defense that put them over the top is still here so it should be mitigated somewhat.

I’d guess the 2024 rotation ends up more middle of the pack like the 2018/19 versions. If they do drop all the way to the Bottom Ten it will be their first time finishing that low since 2016.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Feels like people have 20/80 vision retrospectively on previous year's rotation quality because of names that aren't around anymore.  The Brewers' rotation last season was a weakness....not as much of one as their offense most of last season, but it's not like we saw 4-5 straight months of consistent starts going 6+ IP giving up 2 runs or less, either.

Gasser starting in the minors is due to service time manipulation - he'll be up by May.  Excited to see Hall develop and throwing every 5th day.  It feels a ton to me like the 2019 season, when the Brewers first let Woody/Freddy/Peralta get extended shots in the rotation - that was the year Burnes was among the worst starters in baseball, btw.  There will be growing pains with young arms, but you gotta let them work through it at some point.

[Frisbee Slider]

Peralta pitches opening day.

Game 2 is TBA? Joe Ross?

Sunday is Rea

Junis for home opener?

[brooks_quichenick]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Peralta pitches opening day.

Game 2 is TBA? Joe Ross?

Sunday is Rea

Junis for home opener?

 

[Frisbee Slider]

2 hours ago, brooks_quichenick said:

 

Any guesses for home opener?

[sveumrules]

6 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Any guesses for home opener?

Order since the last Freddy start has been…

Fri 3/22: Peralta
Sat 3/23: Miley 2 IP (Ross 5 IP)
Sun 3/24: Hall
Mon 3/25: Rea
Tue 3/26: Ashby (listed as the probable on MLB)

Obviously Hogg knows more than me, but looks like Rea would be lined up for the HO currently. Also plenty of room to move guys around with the early season off days FRI & MON. Could even throw Freddy on four days rest for the HO if they’re feeling really saucy.

Something to keep an eye on too is Junis hasn’t pitched since 3/16 with his outing skipped last Friday on account of a sore  shoulder. Could be an IL candidate to open the season if he doesn’t get in the last ST game tomorrow.