Joey O

[owbc]

41 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Ortiz has undeniably been terrible at the plate. But, having him at number 9 in the order might be more acceptable if there weren’t so many other holes in the batting order. 
 

I’m less upset about Ortiz than I am that the Brewers did nothing to fill holes at 3B and the outfield corners, which are usually manned by more productive hitters who can provide some power. 

Yep, Frelick is a way bigger problem right now, playing at the #2 ranked offensive position in MLB, a position where league average OPS is 35 points higher than shortstop. And Frelick isn't making it up with his glove. 

[owbc]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

This season was supposed to be the season when Ortiz *should* have some positive regression. Instead, he got even worse.

I think we need to consider the strong possibility that 2024 was the aberration.

Given the current replacement options, if he can OPS at his 2025 rate of .593 he'll probably keep his job. 

If he continues at his 2026 rate of .445, he probably won't (and is already losing playing time as others have mentioned). 

It's frustrating since it's a very low bar that he's not reaching. 

[Lathund]

If Ortiz continues this way, I don't think Pratt is very far off. Had a cold start to the season, has been much better recently, and the underlying numbers (Whether it's basic plate discipline or xwOBA) would suggest that he's not overmatched even when looking at the full-season numbers. Not amazing, just above average, but still not overmatched. Ortiz has option, and Pratt is on the 40-man, so wouldn't take any roster shenanigans to get it done. I think it'll be a couple weeks still at the earliest (Unless injuries force thier hand), but Pratt is closer than people think. 

There's no service time clock to worry about, so the bar is lower than for most promotions. And the performance to beat doesn't exactly raise the bar further. 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I really don’t think a .445 OPS and 0 extra basehits is helping us win games now.

As SeaBass mentioned, he’s already been semi-benched.

Pratt has a whopping 3 extra base hits against AAA pitching where there isn’t a Skenes, a Mitch Keller, a Edwin Cabrera, a Chase Burns, Yamamoto, Sale, Elder, etc etc.

I’m not defending Ortiz but there’s really not many replacements who are likely to be significantly better despite how low the bar is. 

[AdvantageSchneider]

Pratt has a sub .700 OPS for the year and his hot streak over the last week has a 725 OPS.

Oritz had a 885 OPS in his last year in AAA.  There's no reason to bring up Pratt until you have some belief that he is at least as good a hitter as Ortiz was in AAA.

Given Pratt's small number of AAA at bats and his lack of production no one would be bothering to talk about bringing him up if it wasn't for the contract.

[BrewerFan]

19 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I actually think this is about as low pressure of an environment, at least as much as that can be at this level making your debut, as anyone could ask for.

He's already secured the bag and his future. Poor performance won’t take that away.

The offensive bar for him to meet couldn’t possibly have been set any lower.

You could easily argue that it’s just as beneficial for his development to start learning his craft against big league pitching.

It's not much different than what they did with Hardy, except he didn't have the contract. 
He played some at AAA, got hurt, miss the rest of the year and then they just threw him out there to sink or swim at the next level. 

I think he's still going to have pressure because of that contract, not in spite of it, but that's part of what you have to deal with. Pressure to live up to it and most baseball players with talent struggle because they start pressing, but... it's professional baseball.  You have to deal with some pressure. 

 

[sveumrules]

2026 Ortiz bases empty (36 PA)
188/278/188 (40 wRC+)
2026 Ortiz with RISP (24 PA)
368/455/368 (145 wRC+)

2026 Ortiz low leverage (34 PA)
194/265/194 (35 wRC+)
2026 Ortiz high leverage (8 PA)
400/571/400 (196 wRC+)

Obviously can't expect Ortiz to keep running such insane RISP/high leverage splits all season, but at least to this point he's been making the most of whatever singles he's scratched out.

[Playing Catch]

The fWAR leaderboard for 3rd-base (primary position), 2024-present

Spoiler - Ortiz ranks 14th. If you filter for only when playing 3rd base, he drops down to 21st.

This isn't meant to make a claim of any kind, but it is one more indicator of the dearth of left-sided infielders in the game. Someone else could perhaps filter information more effectively than me, but when I counted down the WAR leaders in that span that are either a SS OR 3B (but not 2nd base), Joey was about 30th on the list.

I just can't shake the feeling that the Brewers don't have an Ortiz-problem, but that MLB has an infielder-problem. Heck, a right fielder led shortstops in DRS last season.

[sveumrules]

Offensive production at 3B has been down for a few years now. League average wRC+ for 3B ranged between 100 and 107 every season from 2012 through 2022. This is the image of a slugging third basemen that most fans still have in their head.

Starting in 2023 it has been 96, 97, 96, and now a 98 wRC+ in the early going this year.

As far as "power positions" go, LF is even worse with a league average 96 wRC+ so far this year that would be the lowest since at least 2002, the first season FanGraphs has positional splits available.

 

[owbc]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Offensive production at 3B has been down for a few years now. League average wRC+ for 3B ranged between 100 and 107 every season from 2012 through 2022. This is the image of a slugging third basemen that most fans still have in their head.

Starting in 2023 it has been 96, 97, 96, and now a 98 wRC+ in the early going this year.

As far as "power positions" go, LF is even worse with a league average 96 wRC+ so far this year that would be the lowest since at least 2002, the first season FanGraphs has positional splits available.

 

This is a really good observation. It's interesting that SS has been producing more offense than 3B since 2024. 

It seems like the latest young crop of stars all play middle infield. There are not many high profile 3B debuts of late, certainly not of the level needed to replace aging stars like Arenado, José Ramírez, Bregman, and Manny Machado. Austin Riley isn't that old but his production fell off a cliff. 

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Offensive production at 3B has been down for a few years now. League average wRC+ for 3B ranged between 100 and 107 every season from 2012 through 2022. This is the image of a slugging third basemen that most fans still have in their head.

Starting in 2023 it has been 96, 97, 96, and now a 98 wRC+ in the early going this year.

As far as "power positions" go, LF is even worse with a league average 96 wRC+ so far this year that would be the lowest since at least 2002, the first season FanGraphs has positional splits available.

 

I'm not nearly as good at it as you are but from what I've seen in the quality of defense over the same period has gone up. If there's an inverse effect going on it could be the emphasis on defense is part of the reason for the trend in lower offense. Then again better analysis leads to better positioning, which leads the same defender having better results. I don't know how one could isolate prioritizing player type as a cause. What I do think is happening is teams are starting to prioritize defense more. That alone would presumably have teams drafting and developing a player type that leads to more defense at the possible cost of offense. 

[zurch1818]

Mods - can the two Joey Ortiz threads be merged together?

[Team Canada]

51 minutes ago, zurch1818 said:

Mods - can the two Joey Ortiz threads be merged together?

Done.

[thebruce44]

On 4/28/2026 at 11:14 AM, owbc said:

Yep, Frelick is a way bigger problem right now, playing at the #2 ranked offensive position in MLB, a position where league average OPS is 35 points higher than shortstop. And Frelick isn't making it up with his glove. 

I haven't been able to watch as much of the games this year as I would like, but from what I've seen Sal has been outstanding in the field. His first step on that catch last night had to have been a play that 90% of other RFs don't make.

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

I haven't been able to watch as much of the games this year as I would like, but from what I've seen Sal has been outstanding in the field. His first step on that catch last night had to have been a play that 90% of other RFs don't make.

90% catch probability on that catch per statcast. Frelick's jumps this year have been very poor. His average jump is 1.1 feet below average. He has been fine in RF by the numbers but he's definitely been making plays look much tougher than they actually are with his poor jumps.

[thebruce44]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

90% catch probability on that catch per statcast. Frelick's jumps this year have been very poor. His average jump is 1.1 feet below average. He has been fine in RF by the numbers but he's definitely been making plays look much tougher than they actually are with his poor jumps.

Interesting, thanks for sharing the data.

[adambr2]

Pratt red hot with the bat lately. 10 for his last 21.

[SoCalBrewfan]

On 4/29/2026 at 11:19 AM, Thurston Fluff said:

I'm not nearly as good at it as you are but from what I've seen in the quality of defense over the same period has gone up. If there's an inverse effect going on it could be the emphasis on defense is part of the reason for the trend in lower offense. 

Long ago I remember reading something Bill James wrote (possibly the historical almanac) about the shift over time between 3b and 2b in terms of the expectation of offense vs defense. Some of this was before the double play became a central part of the role of 2b, interestingly enough. The perception in, say, the 1920s was that 3b was more demanding defensively, and there was a reversal of what many of us grew up with, in that big sluggers like Rogers Hornsby played 2b and there were more glove guys with lighter  bats at third.

I believe there is a similar shift in that 3b defense has become more emphasized in recent years, perhaps due to analytics or a shift in talent? (Or the absence of the shift?) Some discussion in this article on the defensive spectrum, much as wikipedia isn't always an ideal source:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_spectrum

[brewcrewdue80]

Any day now. Both Williams and Pratt with elite laat 10 game OPS. I think it was Williams with 3 HRs last 10 games. Pratt with 1.  Since Pratt is signed just promote him the sooner the better. You can option him for Williams as Super 2 timeline passes.  Also if Pratt is looking over-matched. 

Look at it this way. Ortiz is 2 months away from turning 28. Crew acquired him as he approached his baseball prime.  This is it. 0 XBH nearly his last 2 calendar months playing.

 

Pratt is 21 turning 22 in less than 4 Months. He's had a better recent 2 weeks. If he had gone to College he's on his 1st calandar year at professional baseball.  He's signed, baby him after he does a stint at the major league levels. Get Williams a chance soon too. Bump up the power.   I counted 450AB with 0 HRs from Rengifo, Hamilton, Ortiz, Lockridge, and Perkins heading in to today's game.  

Seen some hate on Frelick, but hes up to 3 HRs now.  

 

[Playing Catch]

Are we sure Ortiz hasn't already been relegated to short-side platoon? Hamilton is getting lots of shortstop-time lately.

Speaking only for myself. I don't like it. Perhaps it's because I've been spoiled watching Ortiz's silky, superlative D for long enough, now, that I want to tear my eyes out at every nuance of struggle from Hamilton there, but I think it's Pratt or no one for me. And that's only if Pratt can rival Ortiz's D.

[Lathund]

I'd honestly call up Pratt right now at this point. The one I'd have him replace is Rengifo though, with Ortiz becoming a pure defensive sub / bench player. Neither Rengifo or Ortiz offers much offensively, but at least Ortiz can play defense. Rengifo at his best was an average major leaguer, and he's far from his best. Give that playing time to someone who is part of the future. Like even if Pratt (Or Williams) struggle initially, I'd expect them to beat the 44 wRC+ of Rengifo. 

[shanedog19]

This team's ceiling is currently limited by its below average offensive capability. I don't think they really have anything to lose by calling up Pratt. I guess you could make an argument he isn't ready yet, but they must have felt he was close by the contract they gave him. This team has a high upside starting rotation that will likely be wasted by an offense with too many holes unless it can be improved upon.

[Jopal78]

51 minutes ago, Lathund said:

I'd honestly call up Pratt right now at this point. The one I'd have him replace is Rengifo though, with Ortiz becoming a pure defensive sub / bench player. Neither Rengifo or Ortiz offers much offensively, but at least Ortiz can play defense. Rengifo at his best was an average major leaguer, and he's far from his best. Give that playing time to someone who is part of the future. Like even if Pratt (Or Williams) struggle initially, I'd expect them to beat the 44 wRC+ of Rengifo. 

Rengifo may be a declining player but his OBP is 30 points below where it was last year and 50 points below his career average. His slugging percentage is 60 points below where it was last year and  100 points below below his career average. His exit velocity is the same as last year and he’s hitting more balls in the air than last year. 
 

Unless Rengifo has truly hit the the wall physically at 29 which doesn’t seem likely, his statistics suggest he’s  going to  start playing better

[endaround]

54 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Rengifo may be a declining player but his OBP is 30 points below where it was last year and 50 points below his career average. His slugging percentage is 60 points below where it was last year and  100 points below below his career average. His exit velocity is the same as last year and he’s hitting more balls in the air than last year. 
 

Unless Rengifo has truly hit the the wall physically at 29 which doesn’t seem likely, his statistics suggest he’s  going to  start playing better

His ROS projections project him to hit about what hit last year making him replacement level.

[bensheeps]

With two 40-man spots soon to be open (Jones DFA and Zerpa to 60-day IL), how much longer until a minor league hitter snags one of them and gets the call up?  (Jett Williams, Eddys Leonard, Luis Lara)