Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[markedman5]

 

[wibadgers23]

Will be interesting to see how this impacts Black in 2024, assuming they hold onto Adames.  With Ortiz being 25, you have to figure he'll start the year on the OD roster unless he has a horrific spring training.  That would make for a fairly crowded infield.  Not sure where Black would fit in.  I guess maybe DH?

[liveforoctober]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

ZiPS is currently showing Ortiz (1.8 WAR), Hall (1.1 WAR) and Burnes (4.4 WAR) on their FG player pages.

Isn’t that more like 1.5 wins?

So if we say Hall is a direct replacement for Burnes we are -3.3 and if we say for kicks and giggles that Ortiz replaces Turang 1 for 1 we are at -3 overall on the move..

What will be the mind bend is if we now deal Adames and Ortiz replaces him (-2.3) ... we will need whatever is returned to make up 5.6 wins in order to break even on the ZiPS projections on the 2024 MLB roster.

[BallFour]

4 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Will be interesting to see how this impacts Black in 2024, assuming they hold onto Adames.  With Ortiz being 25, you have to figure he'll start the year on the OD roster unless he has a horrific spring training.  That would make for a fairly crowded infield.  Not sure where Black would fit in.  I guess maybe DH?

I think this trade impacts Turang just as much as Black if not more.

[owbc]

Honestly my instant reaction was…well, I guess we couldn’t afford that Hoskins contract after all. 

[StearnsFTW]

3 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

So if we say Hall is a direct replacement for Burnes we are -3.3 and if we say for kicks and giggles that Ortiz replaces Turang 1 for 1 we are at -3 overall on the move..

What will be the mind bend is if we now deal Adames and Ortiz replaces him (-2.3) ... we will need whatever is returned to make up 5.6 wins in order to break even on the ZiPS projections on the 2024 MLB roster.

Yes.   Which will also include 25MM in free agent money (assuming they take back no real salary for Adames).

[TURBO]

Just now, BallFour said:

I think this trade impacts Turang just as much as Black if not more.

I hope so.  Turang needs to hit.  Start him at AAA.

I want Black to start on opening day, and give us a reason to keep him in the line-up for the next 6 years.

[BrewerFan]

4 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

Ok...well, as always, it's hard to really know how a trade is going to turn out when talking about young players. 

I DID want to see the Brewers trade Burnes. I never liked the O's match because...I wanted young pitching, didn't think all that highly of Hall and thought we didn't need to just target 3B/1B because of past failures when it appears we've addressed that issue moving forward.

But given their moves, Hoskins(trying to sign Chapman as noted in the article)...it just seems strange to me that NOW they'd trade Burnes.

And adding the 34th pick is not a big deal to me. We were getting a pick in that range either way, just a year later(which I get has some value, but you're looking long term either way). 

 

So...if they think Hall can be a really good starting pitcher, it's a win. And they've earned the benefit of the doubt. I've also earned the right to be upset that they significantly hampered their chances to win this year after appearing to be all in.

 

[Samurai Bucky]

25 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

The Athletic has some thoughts on the players we received 

https://theathletic.com/5245961/2024/02/01/mlb-trade-grades-corbin-burnes-deal/?source=user_shared_article

If the Orioles would have thrown in a sack of potatoes, then the grades for the Brewers would make sense.

[BrewerFan]

3 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Yes.   Which will also include 25MM in free agent money (assuming they take back no real salary for Adames).

Or they spent that money on Hoskins and they're just going with a smaller payroll this year. Either one feels possible at this point.

[liveforoctober]

2 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Yes.   Which will also include 25MM in free agent money (assuming they take back no real salary for Adames).

Definitely. The MLB ZiPS projections are what they are ... but the other things brought back by potential deals (future prospects, picks, money, et) are all a big part of it. 

Just pointing out how big or not big the WAR movement would be on the MLB roster..

[TURBO]

I wonder if Hoskins is wishing he had signed elsewhere now that they just traded away their ACE?

[narwhalattack]

Can’t say I’m surprised that we didn’t get much more than this given that Burnes had one year left on his contract (and his numbers seemed to be slowly trending in the wrong direction), but I gotta say, this is a bit of a befuddling offseason. We do nothing for a good chunk of it, then we get a much needed bat at 1B, and then we trade away our best pitcher for a likely reliever, an infielder version of Frelick, and a comp pick. It’s like the FO can’t decide if they want to compete or not.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Trading Burnes makes sense. Orioles were a good trade partner. Think the return seems a tad light; probably should have had one more Top 20 prospect (15-20) coming back. But getting two major league ready players back indicates more retool than rebuild, which is probably just about right for where the team is now.

Should definitely add at least one more starting pitcher for 2024. Will be interesting to see if there is another trade in the works involving Adames, any future free agent signings, or a combination of both over the next two to three weeks. 

[Sixtolezcano]

Tyler Black is 23y6 mo. Not that large a difference in age between him and Ortiz.

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

Contreras not thrilled

 

Contreras wasn’t going to catch Burnes this year, anyway. 🤷‍♂️

[Samurai Bucky]

I'm confused -- isn't this what many on this board wanted?  Our goal was to play the prospects.  Actually, I'm surprised they got Rhys -- he isn't a prospect.

In the end, we can have a great group of prospects and oodles and oodles of years of control.

I am hoping that they do some type of deal for something more than just prospects.  Actually, I am hoping that these prospects contribute this year.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Tyler Black is 23y6 mo. Not that large a difference in age between him and Ortiz.

2 years is a pretty big gap. Ortiz is 25y6mo

[Sixtolezcano]

Here is anothe Ortiz read…

 

https://www.camdenchat.com/2023/11/3/23942456/orioles-prospects-joey-ortiz-season-review-2023

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, dlk9s said:

I'll miss Burnes, though.

We'll never forget you, Corwin.

[narwhalattack]

5 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I'm confused -- isn't this what many on this board wanted?  Our goal was to play the prospects.  Actually, I'm surprised they got Rhys -- he isn't a prospect.

In the end, we can have a great group of prospects and oodles and oodles of years of control.

I am hoping that they do some type of deal for something more than just prospects.  Actually, I am hoping that these prospects contribute this year.

I’m just confused as to what the FO’s goal is. It just feels like this team is in limbo- just good enough to maybe get to the postseason, but not quite good enough to get very far after that. This team is also not terrible enough to warrant a rebuild. The FO does nothing for much of the offseason, then gets some buzz going by getting Hoskins, and then trades away their best pitcher for guys that are likely solid regulars, but unlikely to become much more than that. 

[TURBO]

The Brewers have “entertained the possibility” of trading Devin Williams, says The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

Some real mixed messages coming out of Milwaukee, considering the team just signed Rhys Hoskins and has now traded its ace in Corbin Burnes. It’s hard to say how long Williams will last as a top closer, and he would certainly bring in a nice haul. The Brewers, though, could wait and see where they are in July; relievers tend to bring better returns at the deadline anyway. If the Brewers did make a move now, then Joel Payamps and Trevor Megill might battle for the closer’s role initially, with Abner Uribe waiting in the wings.

1h ago

Source: The Athletic

[GAME05]

44 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

One reason for Ortiz's age was he was a college player - and thus didn't reach pro ball until he was 21. He then missed all of 2020 due to the COVID stuff. And then most of the next season due to injury. So he's a bit behind most players - developmentally. 

If he ends up being good it's not like we could afford the giant extension, but in the years we do have him he'll probably be closer to his prime. His age is a plus to me.

[LouisEly]

52 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

With Gunner Henderson as the O’s starting SS I don’t think there was much of a chance for him to start ahead of him.Do you?

And Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday.

[Sixtolezcano]

5 minutes ago, narwhalattack said:

I’m just confused as to what the FO’s goal is. It just feels like this team is in limbo- just good enough to maybe get to the postseason, but not quite good enough to get very far after that. 

Not much different than the past 5 years.