Brewers Trade Aaron Civale To White Sox For Andrew Vaughn

[igor67]

At what point do White Sox fans start referring to Vaughn as Big Hurt II?

[Playing Catch]

Firstly, my 12-year-old brain is dreaming about Andrew Vaughn blossoming into a stud that signs a long-term deal and bats cleanup to the tune of .310/.370/.490 like many here.

But his underlying skillset has inoperable flaws, namely defense and baserunning. He's not going to win any gold-gloves, and he has 3 stolen bases in 625 major league games.

For him to be a true, first-division regular at first base, he'll need to mash.

With that said, perhaps Andrew Vaughn, the 3rd overall pick, can actually mash. I think that most of us, with confidence, see the White Sox as a moribund franchise. A comparatively lousy, old stadium in the other half of a big city that invested in a bunch of talent without any baseball character. Now I don't know Vaughn, or what makes him tick, but it's quite possible that he hates losing so much that his big-league dreams were DOA in the Southside. It's possible that the organization and Vaughn were never on the same page with how he should develop. Perhaps he was being pressured to produce RBI in Chicago and encouraged to swing at bad pitches? Perhaps he never had the confidence in their development to listen to his coaches over there and therefore he was sent a reality check that hit home.

His draft profile was remarkable to me at the time, in terms of his hitting ability. I couldn't believe that a DH was going to be drafted top 3. But that's what nearly every scouting outfit said... that his bat was that special.

[young guns]

Move aside wally pipp.  Rhys Hoskins has entered the chat.

[Joseph Zarr]

This Vaughn heater reminds me of ol' Bob 'Hurricane Hazle' for the Milwaukee Braves in the late 1950's. 

Howard M. Tuckner, of the NY Times, wrote of his heater at the time:

Quote

The Milwaukee Braves’ rookie outfielder has stunned the baseball world with his outstanding hitting since he was recalled a month ago from Wichita. He owned a modest .279 batting average at the time. The 26-year-old left-handed hitting South Carolinian has made thirty-four hits in sixty-seven times at bat for an average of .507. …‘It doesn’t seem possible that anyone can keep up such a pace,’ said Red Schoendienst …‘but right now the kid is Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams all wrapped in one.’ … Some say he simply is an overnight sensation. … Others, such as Andy Pafko, the Braves hard-hitting flychaser, say Bob is a natural hitter. ‘The kid can really rip the ball,’ Pafko said. ‘Next to Henry Aaron, he’s got the strongest wrists in baseball. And he doesn’t swing at too many bad balls, either.’

My dad was 10 years old at the time. He still talks about Hazle's run. You can bet Vaughn's heater has him talking about Hazle yet again. 

OH, also this:

😅

[adambr2]

12 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Firstly, my 12-year-old brain is dreaming about Andrew Vaughn blossoming into a stud that signs a long-term deal and bats cleanup to the tune of .310/.370/.490 like many here.

But his underlying skillset has inoperable flaws, namely defense and baserunning. He's not going to win any gold-gloves, and he has 3 stolen bases in 625 major league games.

For him to be a true, first-division regular at first base, he'll need to mash.

With that said, perhaps Andrew Vaughn, the 3rd overall pick, can actually mash. I think that most of us, with confidence, see the White Sox as a moribund franchise. A comparatively lousy, old stadium in the other half of a big city that invested in a bunch of talent without any baseball character. Now I don't know Vaughn, or what makes him tick, but it's quite possible that he hates losing so much that his big-league dreams were DOA in the Southside. It's possible that the organization and Vaughn were never on the same page with how he should develop. Perhaps he was being pressured to produce RBI in Chicago and encouraged to swing at bad pitches? Perhaps he never had the confidence in their development to listen to his coaches over there and therefore he was sent a reality check that hit home.

His draft profile was remarkable to me at the time, in terms of his hitting ability. I couldn't believe that a DH was going to be drafted top 3. But that's what nearly every scouting outfit said... that his bat was that special.

Well, it’s not like Hoskins was here for his glove or his baserunning. So while it’s true that Vaughn won’t be winning any gold gloves, it’s not like we’ve lost anything there, either.

I’d be curious to know if the Brewers’ analytics department just doesn’t find 1B defense to be a particularly heavily weighted asset. It just seems to be the one position over the years that they really haven’t prioritized good defense at all.

[Team Canada]

13 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

He's not going to win any gold-gloves, and he has 3 stolen bases in 625 major league games.

Have either of those things ever been true of our first basemen? Those are not things I would define as high on the priority list for a 1B.

[Playing Catch]

5 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Have either of those things ever been true of our first basemen? Those are not things I would define as high on the priority list for a 1B.

I agree. Which is why I think there is room to imagine a resurgent Vaughn as a candidate to buy out a year of free agency in his last arbitration year. After spending the first few years as a professional playing for the Sox, he might just feel like the Brewers are a good place to be, and the Brewers may see him as a guy they want to hang onto.

Obviously, there's a long way to go from now until February.

[CheezWizHed]

32 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

For him to be a true, first-division regular at first base, he'll need to mash.

Meh... When I see comments like this it feels like someone is remembering the 1990-2010 era when there was a plethora of big hitting 1Bers. 

If you can hit 750+ OPS, you are in the top half of starters in the MLB.  Hit 850+ and you are elite.

Personally, I think a 750-800 OPS is realistic with maybe some upside after that.  His stats in college were pretty amazing.  

[Playing Catch]

17 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Meh... When I see comments like this it feels like someone is remembering the 1990-2010 era when there was a plethora of big hitting 1Bers. 

If you can hit 750+ OPS, you are in the top half of starters in the MLB.  Hit 850+ and you are elite.

Personally, I think a 750-800 OPS is realistic with maybe some upside after that.  His stats in college were pretty amazing.  

His career wRC+ is a cool 100. Great for the Turangs and Ortizes of the world. Not good enough for a slow-footed, okay-gloved first base only guy.

In this context, I would consider a wRC+ in the 120 range as "mashing," which probably fits into your parameters as well.

[Outlander]

2 hours ago, igor67 said:

At what point do White Sox fans start referring to Vaughn as Big Hurt II?

From the White Sox fans I know they are taking Vaughn's play with the Brewers rather well especially since they considered him such a disappoitnment when he played for them. Maybe him hurting the Cubs softens the blow a bit.

[liveforoctober]

2 hours ago, Outlander said:

From the White Sox fans I know they are taking Vaughn's play with the Brewers rather well especially since they considered him such a disappoitnment when he played for them. Maybe him hurting the Cubs softens the blow a bit.

There is a point where it just isn't working in your org and you have to cut bait, even if that means he flourishes elsewhere. It isn't exactly the same .. but if Hiura had taken off somewhere else and became a very good big league bat - I would have been happy for him.

[valpocrewsader]

15 games logged with the Brewers at this point and hitting .375/.439/.771/1.209.

Lazy math to multiply x10 for an entire season's production and the counting stats look like 100 runs, 180 hits, 40 doubles, 50 HR, 210 RBI (!), 70 walks, and 70 strikeouts.

Incredible.

[mudbutt]

The Brewers have control of Vaughn for two years after this season so I’d rather ride that out than extend any farther than that.  If he levels out to be a .750 to .800 OPS guy that’s fine by me given the dearth of offensive talent in the league.

[Roderick]

So, I don't see a trade by the White Sox moving Civale?....   He pitched so bad, they couldn't move him?  Wouldn't have guessed that when this trade first happened.

[brooks_quichenick]

 

[dlk9s]

 

[gregmag]

The change in his K/BB numbers from White sox to Brewers continues to be absurd. Yesterday, in his first PA, he looked pretty bad — long swings at some questionable pitches. The rest of the game, you could see his adjustments.

I’m on the local train from just loving Vaughn’s breakout to believing it. I can see a plausible story about how the White Sox failed to develop the genuinely good hitter they drafted.

[wiguy94]

33 minutes ago, gregmag said:

The change in his K/BB numbers from White sox to Brewers continues to be absurd. Yesterday, in his first PA, he looked pretty bad — long swings at some questionable pitches. The rest of the game, you could see his adjustments.

I’m on the local train from just loving Vaughn’s breakout to believing it. I can see a plausible story about how the White Sox failed to develop the genuinely good hitter they drafted.

Yeah I mean I think it's worth noting that Vaughn was an extremely well regarded hitting prospect.

Pipeline - 65 hit, 60 power

Baseball America - 60 hit, 60 power

Fangraphs - 55 hit, 50 power (70 hit, 60 power in terms of future projections)

ESPN - 45 hit, 45 power (65 hit, 60 power in terms of future projections)

Athletic - No tools but talks about him being a .400+ OBP guy with 25 HR power

[SRB]

37 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah I mean I think it's worth noting that Vaughn was an extremely well regarded hitting prospect.

Pipeline - 65 hit, 60 power

Baseball America - 60 hit, 60 power

Fangraphs - 55 hit, 50 power (70 hit, 60 power in terms of future projections)

ESPN - 45 hit, 45 power (65 hit, 60 power in terms of future projections)

Athletic - No tools but talks about him being a .400+ OBP guy with 25 HR power

He was the third overall pick in the 2019 draft and was a consensus top-20 prospect in baseball as a pure 1B. Hard to have better scouting pedigree as a hitter.

[SRB]

1 hour ago, gregmag said:

I can see a plausible story about how the White Sox failed to develop the genuinely good hitter they drafted.

My Moneyball theory (feel free to hire me, Brewers FO), is that there is a lot of value in scooping up "failed" prospects from the 2019 draft. They had a weird and destabilizing development experience because of Covid and it stands to reason they will be late bloomers.

Vaughn got a couple hundred PA after he was drafted in 2019, then missed out on the entire 2020 minor league season, and then the White Sox threw him into the deep end in the majors in 2021. Missing out on the minor leagues almost entirely and having to adjust to major league pitching in an infamously toxic and inept White Sox clubhouse is probably not ideal.

[wildcat83]

Civale has 17 scoreless innings over his last 3 starts.  He’s holding up his side of the trade as well.  For now looks like a trade that works for both sides.

[SRB]

10 hours ago, wildcat83 said:

Civale has 17 scoreless innings over his last 3 starts.  He’s holding up his side of the trade as well.  For now looks like a trade that works for both sides.

Except Civale is a half-season rental for the second-worst team in baseball

[markedman5]

38 minutes ago, SRB said:

Except Civale is a half-season rental for the second-worst team in baseball

Yeah glad that Civale is now pitching well( I hold no animosity towards him) but one side is benefiting way more then the other in this trade…..lol

[umphrey]

Yeah I just realized they kept Civale through the deadline. What a pointless trade for them. 

[da swedish german]

good for him. if he keeps it up through the year he should get one last nice little payday

he wasn't great, but I enjoyed watching him and his big dumper