How Good Is Your Ninth Best Player Supposed to be Anyway?? (AKA the Joey Ortiz Thread)

[Team Canada]

6 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

Which just goes to show again how meaningless stats are. You can make them say anything you want them to say.

In this case, you could use them to argue that two years of one player is more valuable than 1 year of another player. That's not shocking, is it?

[Frisbee Slider]

10 hours ago, Team Canada said:

In this case, you could use them to argue that two years of one player is more valuable than 1 year of another player. That's not shocking, is it?

Since Joey Ortiz is not a needle mover then his needle should not move.

We need a stat for moving the needle.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It feels like this is one of those both sides are correct deals.

1. If Ortiz is your 9th best position player, that is a good place to be.

2. Upgrading Ortiz to even a Durbin-level hitter (or Ortiz becoming that guy) would have a bigger impact on the Brewers offense than a similar upgrade on many teams just because of their offensive style and the number of times their No. 8 and 9 hitters comes up with runners on.

[liveforoctober]

On 11/21/2025 at 4:14 PM, mudbutt said:

Also the trade included the 34th pick which became Blake Burke, who signed under slot which helped sign promising guys like Dubanewicz.  As far as Burke goes he finally got his ground ball rate down in the second half in AA and produced stellar numbers there.  Hopefully it was not a fluke because he’s got crazy power.

The problem with arguing with casuals (and I say that super respectfully and am not pointing at specific people here) is that they don't know who either of those guys are or the process needed to run a small market organization like ours. We need to acquire volume and we need to scratch from every avenue to get it. A lot of that volume isn't going to pan out. That's the process.

We could have traded Burnes for Ortiz, the Orioles entire AA team, 1% of the city of Baltimore's annual GDP, Under Armour headquarters, and royalty rights to "The Raven" by EAP and the response to Ortiz' development from many would be the same "we should have gotten a better headliner for Burnes, bad trade".

It's actually why I've stuck around these boards as long as I have. Really good fans here. My daily life is filled with "If I were Milwaukee I would give Kyle Schwarber an 8 yr. $240 mil deal tomorrow... we need his bat". I come here (minus the in game threads) for baseball sanity.

[Playing Catch]

Primo post from Sveum.

There isn't anything wrong with Ortiz. He's a good starting MLB shortstop, and would benefit nearly every team in baseball to have him on the 26-man. He will need to continue to develop, however, if he wants to keep getting the 500+ ABs to rack up that WAR with his glove, instead of becoming a utility IFer.

We wouldn't be having this conversation if the Brewers were able to find/develop/play a platoon partner with Ortiz. Or at the very least a consistent option to pinch-hit off the bench. Don't make it so easy for teams to gameplan the Brewers order. He probably shouldn't have had 500 ABs with which to rack up positive WAR with his glove. The Brewers needed to have a guy on the bench to make teams think about the nine-spot in the order, instead of allowing teams to pitch to the easy-out.

After the last 2 or 3 player-acquisition windows, it's abundantly clear that there simply aren't very many non-negative shortstop defenders that can hit. I find the age-old fan's-lament, "It's not my job to find a good platoon/bench option, I'm sure they exist," tedious, but that doesn't mean the Brewers should end the search to try and improve.

I think I prefer the Brewers just hang tight, though. Expect that Ortiz will improve enough to be a really good starter, and if not, bring up Made.

If the switch-hitting-machine, Jesus Made, is what he's supposed to be, and say that he's raking in AA, I don't see any on-field reason why he isn't on the 26-man by June (promoting him quickly, w/o an extension, of course, would have other ramifications down the road). He could platoon at short and third with Ortiz and Durbin, and be a Brewers do-it-all super-sub. He could gain a ton of reps in practice with the Brewers staff and integrate into the team/city without any pressure to perform.

I'm less interested in Pratt, because while I think he's probably, ultimately, the better player than Ortiz, I'm not sure he's so much better than Ortiz/Monasterio that he is going to get a lot of opportunities on a playoff team.

[Deacon Blue]

His splits against lefties are solid. I’d be interested in a look at Turang at short with Durbin at third and Collins at second vs righties, then Ortiz at third and Durbin at second vs lefties.

[trwi7]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

He will need to continue to develop, however, if he wants to keep getting the 500+ ABs to rack up that WAR with his glove, instead of becoming a utility IFer.

He will be almost 28 years old on Opening Day.  How much development is even left?  We could and have done worse at SS but expecting this big developmental leap from him is not realistic and not looking for an upgrade or being "fine" with him because he's good on defense and it's ok to have a player like that be your 9th best position player doesn't really inspire confidence in a fan base that the team is turning over every stone to put the best team on the field.

[Scooterfletcher]

Twirly, how come you don’t post on the bucks rg forum anymore?

[Samurai Bucky]

Pfft... who needs AI when you have SVEUM!

[jay87shot]

I think just getting more walks out of him would be huge. He went from 56 to 27 bb in similar plate appearances. If he takes more walks it means he sees more pitches, hence more mistakes and hopefully less early count weak contact (42 to 26 xbh). The strikeouts did go down from 103 to 74 but the strikeouts aren't bad if they are accompanied by more walks and hard contact.

[Jopal78]

Ortiz had 5 fewer PAs in  ‘25 than ‘24. He walked 19 fewer times in ‘25 but also struck out 29 times less. Meaning he put more balls in play.

While Ortiz’s ground ball and fly ball tendencies remained static in ‘25 his BABIP dropped from .283 to .260. So he could definitely bounce back. 

With his defense, if he rebounds back to .329/.398 he’ll play in the majors for a decade:

JJ Hardy- 14 years- .305/.408

Villar-10 years- .322/.397

Jean Segura-12 years-.327/.401

 

 

 

 

[markedman5]

12 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Primo post from Sveum.

There isn't anything wrong with Ortiz. He's a good starting MLB shortstop, and would benefit nearly every team in baseball to have him on the 26-man. He will need to continue to develop, however, if he wants to keep getting the 500+ ABs to rack up that WAR with his glove, instead of becoming a utility IFer.

We wouldn't be having this conversation if the Brewers were able to find/develop/play a platoon partner with Ortiz. Or at the very least a consistent option to pinch-hit off the bench. Don't make it so easy for teams to gameplan the Brewers order. He probably shouldn't have had 500 ABs with which to rack up positive WAR with his glove. The Brewers needed to have a guy on the bench to make teams think about the nine-spot in the order, instead of allowing teams to pitch to the easy-out.

After the last 2 or 3 player-acquisition windows, it's abundantly clear that there simply aren't very many non-negative shortstop defenders that can hit. I find the age-old fan's-lament, "It's not my job to find a good platoon/bench option, I'm sure they exist," tedious, but that doesn't mean the Brewers should end the search to try and improve.

I think I prefer the Brewers just hang tight, though. Expect that Ortiz will improve enough to be a really good starter, and if not, bring up Made.

If the switch-hitting-machine, Jesus Made, is what he's supposed to be, and say that he's raking in AA, I don't see any on-field reason why he isn't on the 26-man by June (promoting him quickly, w/o an extension, of course, would have other ramifications down the road). He could platoon at short and third with Ortiz and Durbin, and be a Brewers do-it-all super-sub. He could gain a ton of reps in practice with the Brewers staff and integrate into the team/city without any pressure to perform.

I'm less interested in Pratt, because while I think he's probably, ultimately, the better player than Ortiz, I'm not sure he's so much better than Ortiz/Monasterio that he is going to get a lot of opportunities on a playoff team.

I don’t think you are going to see Made in 2026……by all accounts he still has a ways to go defensively.

He is still 18 years old………won’t turn 19 until May………it’s going to be Joey or somebody else next season……not Made.

[Playing Catch]

19 hours ago, trwi7 said:

He will be almost 28 years old on Opening Day.  How much development is even left?  We could and have done worse at SS but expecting this big developmental leap from him is not realistic and not looking for an upgrade or being "fine" with him because he's good on defense and it's ok to have a player like that be your 9th best position player doesn't really inspire confidence in a fan base that the team is turning over every stone to put the best team on the field.

I agree. He's basically a finished product. But that doesn't change the fact that he'll need to be better with the bat going forward to maintain the amount of playing time he's received. I expect the Brewers will stand pat with him because of the proximity their prospects are to the big leagues and the dearth of obvious big-league replacements. If he's going to keep starting, he'll need to fend off the internal candidates as well as any additions.

10 hours ago, markedman5 said:

I don’t think you are going to see Made in 2026……by all accounts he still has a ways to go defensively.

He is still 18 years old………won’t turn 19 until May………it’s going to be Joey or somebody else next season……not Made.

That is likely, but if we really want more offense out of the position, Made is probably better right now than many other options, and he's already in the org.

[CheezWizHed]

19 hours ago, trwi7 said:

He will be almost 28 years old on Opening Day.  How much development is even left?  We could and have done worse at SS but expecting this big developmental leap from him is not realistic and not looking for an upgrade or being "fine" with him because he's good on defense and it's ok to have a player like that be your 9th best position player doesn't really inspire confidence in a fan base that the team is turning over every stone to put the best team on the field.

You could also say that he will be still 27 for half the season (July)... 😂

I think the main question is which Joey will we see this year?  Last year's 66 OPS+ or the prior year's 102 OPS+? Somewhere between? 

I don't think he will "develop" anything more than those two extremes but having him bounce back to being a league average bat would be a great offseason development.  And given this will be a prime year for him... not really out of the realm of possibilities either. There aren't many FA options that would be better anyway...

If Made keeps tearing the hide off the baseball at AA and Joey is the 2025 version of Joey, I wouldn't shock me to see Made come up late in the season just to see what he could do. More likely we stick with Joey at the start of the season and if he is bad, make a trade for a rental SS.

[Oxy]

I would take a career like this from Joey O-

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vizquom01.shtml

[Brian]

I was most shocked to see Joey Ortiz only had 45 RBI's last season.  Talk about not being a clutch hitter when he hardly missed any games the whole season. 

[sveumrules]

42 minutes ago, Brian said:

I was most shocked to see Joey Ortiz only had 45 RBI's last season.  Talk about not being a clutch hitter when he hardly missed any games the whole season. 

The most RBI any one player had batting 9th was Javier Baez with 38, Joey was second with 35 of his RBI coming from the nine hole. The 76 RBI the Brewers had as a team from the 9th spot in the order was 2nd in MLB and their 106 wRC+ from the last spot in the order was tops in MLB. 

I'm not arguing Joey was clutch by any means - though he did hit considerably better with runners on base at 283/320/361 (92 wRC+) compared to with the bases empty at 183/238/279 (45 wRC+) - but nobody has a clutch hitter in the nine spot of their lineup.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Oxy said:

I would take a career like this from Joey O-

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vizquom01.shtml

Looks like Joey is one of 145 players with at least 800 PA playing primarily SS during their age 25-26 seasons since the Brewers came to be in 1970. Here is how Joey did compared to the above linked Omar and some other bad bat good glove guys from days gone by,,,

25-26 Joey Ortiz (1,017 PA)
86 wRC+ | +25.0 DEF | 4.5 WAR
27-?? Joey Ortiz (TBD)

25-26 Jack Wilson (1,308 PA)
87 wRC+ | +28.1 DEF | 5.4 WAR
27-31 Jack Wilson (2,500 PA)
80 wRC+ | +60.8 DEF | 7.7 WAR

25-26 Greg Gagne (987 PA)
88 wRC+ | +34.8 DEF | 5.3 WAR
27-34 Greg Gagne (3,793 PA)
85 wRC+ | +135.9 DEF | 17.5 WAR

25-26 Bucky Dent (955 PA)
76 wRC+ | +45.0 DEF | 5.2 WAR
27-29 Bucky Dent (1,301 PA)
81 wRC+ | +64.8 DEF | 7.7 WAR

25-26 Omar Vizquel (1,157 PA)
82 wRC+ | +44.1 DEF | 5.1 WAR
27-40 Omar Vizquel (8,427 PA)
90 wRC+ | +154.9 DEF | 35.2 WAR

25-26 Ozzie Smith (1,219 PA)
72 wRC+ | +39.7 DEF | 4.7 WAR
27-39 Ozzie Smith (7,799 PA)
98 wRC+ | +291.5 DEF | 58.6 WAR

25-26 Freddie Patek (924 PA)
92 wRC+ | +16.3 DEF | 4.6 WAR
27-32 Freddie Patek (3,386 PA)
77 wRC+ | +85.8 DEF | 13.7 WAR

25-26 Jose Valentin (1,014 PA)
88 wRC+ | +25.0 DEF | 4.6 WAR
27-37 Jose Valentin (4,722 PA)
97 wRC+ | +91.9 DEF | 23.3 WAR 

25-26 Dick Schofield (935 PA)
79 wRC+ | +33.1 DEF | 4.5 WAR
27-29 Dick Schofield (1,368 PA)
76 wRC+ | +34.5 DEF | 4.1 WAR

25-26 Royce Clayton (1,088 PA)
77 wRC+ | +39.4 DEF | 4.3 WAR
27-31 Royce Clayton (2,805 PA)
81 wRC+ | +55.7 DEF | 7.9 WAR

25-26 Brandon Crawford (1,026 PA)
87 wRC+ | +23.0 DEF | 4.0 WAR
27-35 Brandon Crawford (4,672 PA)
100 wRC+ | +103.6 DEF | 25.9 WAR

25-26 Bill Russell (907 PA)
78 wRC+ | +30.1 DEF | 3.9 WAR
27-33 Bill Russell (3,972 PA)
84 wRC+ | +85.8 DEF | 15.2 WAR

There were a couple bad bat good glove guys in that same range - Frank Duffy (823 PA | 87 wRC+ | +35.7 DEF | 5.2 WAR) and Dale Berra (1,197 PA | 85 wRC+ | +29.0 DEF | 4.8 WAR) - that were pretty much done by age 26, but most of the players similar to Joey went on to have a few more decent years in them at least. 

Even if Joey can manage something like Jack Wilson, Bucky Dent or Royce Clayton kind of production from age 27 onward that would put him up over a dozen WAR with the Brewers.

[LouisEly]

I'll consider it a success if after 2026 Joey Ortiz has earned the same nickname from Cubs fans that Bucky Dent earned from Red Sox fans, regardless of what Ortiz's overall batting line is.

[TURBO]

I think there are many folks here who have forgotten just how bad Joey was at the dish in 2025.  Remember all those times coming to bat with bases loaded?  It was sickening.

He felt like an automatic out most of the season, and we have people here acting like all was fine.

I think people can drop all the stats they want, but if you watched as many games as I did, you can't possibly think his 2025 season was passable.  It wasn't.

It's fine to compare him to other all glove and no bat SS, but our line-up can't absorb players like him,  We don't have the pop to make up for it.  Yes, he was our #9 hitter, and what can realistically be expected from a #9 hitter, blah blah blah, but that doesn't mean we have to just accept that he was TERRIBLE last year, and not look for a replacement.  Finding that replacement is another story all together (and probably a story for a different thread), but just because he was a horrible #9 hitter doesn't mean we can't expect better in 2026 from someone else.

It's great that we can forgive and forget, but offensively, Joey is not our answer at SS.  Most playoff contending teams would be searching for a replacement, that's just how it is.

Can he rebound and be 2024 Joey?  Possibly, and if he does, that would be great, but what if he doesn't and we have a re-run of 2025?

We seem to want to act like everything in 2025 was just fine.  

Well, it wasn't.

[SF70]

5 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I think there are many folks here who have forgotten just how bad Joey was at the dish in 2025.  Remember all those times coming to bat with bases loaded?  It was sickening.

He felt like an automatic out most of the season, and we have people here acting like all was fine.

I think people can drop all the stats they want, but if you watched as many games as I did, you can't possibly think his 2025 season was passable.  It wasn't.

It's fine to compare him to other all glove and no bat SS, but our line-up can't absorb players like him,  We don't have the pop to make up for it.  Yes, he was our #9 hitter, and what can realistically be expected from a #9 hitter, blah blah blah, but that doesn't mean we have to just accept that he was TERRIBLE last year, and not look for a replacement.  Finding that replacement is another story all together (and probably a story for a different thread), but just because he was a horrible #9 hitter doesn't mean we can't expect better in 2026 from someone else.

It's great that we can forgive and forget, but offensively, Joey is not our answer at SS.  Most playoff contending teams would be searching for a replacement, that's just how it is.

Can he rebound and be 2024 Joey?  Possibly, and if he does, that would be great, but what if he doesn't and we have a re-run of 2025?

We seem to want to act like everything in 2025 was just fine.  

Well, it wasn't.

Well actually it was. The team did after-all win 97 games and finished 3rd in RS.

The team isn’t going to replace a GG-caliber SS this offseason without giving him until the trade-deadline to see if he can improve his offense. If Steamer is right and he gets to a 95 wRC+, he becomes a 3 WAR player. But even if he can get to 85, he probably eliminates the need for an outside acquisition.

[sveumrules]

32 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Finding that replacement is another story all together (and probably a story for a different thread)

Going down the SS leaderboard I think the two guys that could maybe be available are CJ Abrams (would probably need to be moved to 2B with Turang sliding to SS) and Zach Neto.

FanGraphs had both the Nationals and Angels with bottom three pitching staffs last year with only the Rockies saving them from the gutter, and also had their catchers tied for worst in MLB with -1.2 WAR.

So let's say Chad Patrick and Craig Yoho for their pitching needs, Jeferson Quero to address the catching situation, and Joey Ortiz to backfill whichever of Abrams/Neto we acquire.

Maybe you could get Abrams without including Yoho since CJ isn't really a SS and has an extra year of service time over Neto, but I'd imagine that is ballpark of what it would cost to upgrade over Joey for next year.

[CheezWizHed]

6 hours ago, TURBO said:

I think there are many folks here who have forgotten just how bad Joey was at the dish in 2025.  Remember all those times coming to bat with bases loaded?  It was sickening.

He felt like an automatic out most of the season, and we have people here acting like all was fine.

I think people can drop all the stats they want, but if you watched as many games as I did, you can't possibly think his 2025 season was passable.  It wasn't.

It's fine to compare him to other all glove and no bat SS, but our line-up can't absorb players like him,  We don't have the pop to make up for it.  Yes, he was our #9 hitter, and what can realistically be expected from a #9 hitter, blah blah blah, but that doesn't mean we have to just accept that he was TERRIBLE last year, and not look for a replacement.  Finding that replacement is another story all together (and probably a story for a different thread), but just because he was a horrible #9 hitter doesn't mean we can't expect better in 2026 from someone else.

It's great that we can forgive and forget, but offensively, Joey is not our answer at SS.  Most playoff contending teams would be searching for a replacement, that's just how it is.

Can he rebound and be 2024 Joey?  Possibly, and if he does, that would be great, but what if he doesn't and we have a re-run of 2025?

We seem to want to act like everything in 2025 was just fine.  

Well, it wasn't.

I don't see anyone signing up for another year of 2025 Ortiz.... I do see:

• People speculating if he can return to 2024 Ortiz (about average bat with +defense)
• Comparing 24-25 Ortiz to others to point out that there are limited options to upgrade (though upgrading on 2025 Ortiz alone is much easier)
• Considering where Ortiz did hit well (e.g. against LHP) to consider platoon options. 
• Considering if Pratt or Made might be ready next year.

But nice strawman argument... 

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

 

But nice strawman argument... 

It's a strawman's argument to say that Joey wasn't very good in 2025, and it would be nice to make an improvement there?

Ok then.

[CheezWizHed]

43 minutes ago, TURBO said:

It's a strawman's argument to say that Joey wasn't very good in 2025, and it would be nice to make an improvement there?

Ok then.

Nope. Your strawman argument was that people here are OK with 2025 Ortiz being our 2026 SS.

9 hours ago, TURBO said:

I think there are many folks here who have forgotten just how bad Joey was at the dish in 2025. 

9 hours ago, TURBO said:

IHe felt like an automatic out most of the season, and we have people here acting like all was fine.

9 hours ago, TURBO said:

We seem to want to act like everything in 2025 was just fine.  

Quite literally no one is saying that.  But thanks for agreeing with us, I guess.