Brewers (May) vs Reds (Abbott): 09/05/26, 5:40 PM

[Brock Beauchamp]

May gets the start for the Brewers tonight in Cincinnati as Milwaukee takes on Abbott and the Reds.

[Brock Beauchamp]

	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	TOT
Trevor Megill	0	0	12	0	20	32
Robert Gasser	0	76	0	0	0	76
JoJo Romero	0	11	11	0	0	22
Grant Anderson	0	0	0	0	0	0
DL Hall	18	11	0	12	0	41
Chad Patrick	21	0	0	0	41	62
Antonio Senzatela	0	13	12	0	15	40
Abner Uribe	0	14	12	0	0	26
Aaron Ashby	0	13	11	0	19	43

[liveforoctober]

So I guess the 6 hole in our lineup is kind of like an oxygen mask on NFL sidelines. I'm requesting the last week or so of the season everyone takes a turn hitting in the 6 spot just so we are all breathing easy for the playoffs.

[willie key]

1 minute ago, liveforoctober said:

So I guess the 6 hole in our lineup is kind of like an oxygen mask on NFL sidelines. I'm requesting the last week or so of the season everyone takes a turn hitting in the 6 spot just so we are all breathing easy for the playoffs.

Might have to stick Bauers there soon as soon as Turang gets it out of his system

[sveumrules]

It's been a month since the trade deadline now and the Brewers 19 W - 11 L record since August 4th is the second best mark in MLB behind the Phillies at 19 W - 9 L and just ahead of TBR/TOR at 18 W - 11 L each.

Their run of increasing their W% both pre/post deadline and year over year during the Murph Era is looking pretty uncanny...

2024
pre (61 W - 46 L | .570 W%)
post (32 W - 23 L | .582 W%)

2025
pre (64 W - 44 L | .593 W%)
post (33 W - 21 L | .611 W%)

2026
pre (69 W - 43 L | .616 W%)
so far (19 W - 11 L | .633 W%)

Tracks with longer pattern of year over year macro improvements as we've transitioned out of Stearns/Counsell and into Arnold/Murphy...

2022
86 W - 76 L (.531 W%)
+37 RunDiff | +57 BaseRuns
4.48 RS/G | 4.25 RA/G

2023
92 W - 70 L (.568 W%)
+81 RunDiff | +34 BaseRuns
4.49 RS/G | 3.99 RA/G

2024
93 W - 69 L (.574 W%)
+136 RunDiff | +91 BaseRuns
4.80 RS/G | 3.96 RA/G

2025
97 W - 65 L (.599 W%)
+172 RunDiff | +134 BaseRuns
4.98 RS/G | 3.91 RA/G

2026 so far
88 W - 54 L (.620 W%)
+174 RunDiff | +165 BaseRuns
5.04 RS/G | 3.81 RA/G

That's 19 of 20 categories (W%, RunDiff, BaseRuns, RS/G, and RA/G times four years) that have each improved season over season since 2022 with the decreasing BaseRuns from 2022 to 2023 the lone holdout.

Truly insane stuff.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I've been really surprised that Anderson hasn't been used all week. I know he's not a top guy, but he's been pretty effective, and this is a long stretch without an off day. I'll say he's first guy out if May gets in trouble.

[Jopal78]

23 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

It's been a month since the trade deadline now and the Brewers 19 W - 11 L record since August 4th is the second best mark in MLB behind the Phillies at 19 W - 9 L and just ahead of TBR/TOR at 18 W - 11 L each.

Their run of increasing their W% both pre/post deadline and year over year during the Murph Era is looking pretty uncanny...

2024
pre (61 W - 46 L | .570 W%)
post (32 W - 23 L | .582 W%)

2025
pre (64 W - 44 L | .593 W%)
post (33 W - 21 L | .611 W%)

2026
pre (69 W - 43 L | .616 W%)
so far (19 W - 11 L | .633 W%)

Tracks with longer pattern of year over year macro improvements as we've transitioned out of Stearns/Counsell and into Arnold/Murphy...

2022
86 W - 76 L (.531 W%)
+37 RunDiff | +57 BaseRuns
4.48 RS/G | 4.25 RA/G

2023
92 W - 70 L (.568 W%)
+81 RunDiff | +34 BaseRuns
4.49 RS/G | 3.99 RA/G

2024
93 W - 69 L (.574 W%)
+136 RunDiff | +91 BaseRuns
4.80 RS/G | 3.96 RA/G

2025
97 W - 65 L (.599 W%)
+172 RunDiff | +134 BaseRuns
4.98 RS/G | 3.91 RA/G

2026 so far
88 W - 54 L (.620 W%)
+174 RunDiff | +165 BaseRuns
5.04 RS/G | 3.81 RA/G

That's 19 of 20 categories (W%, RunDiff, BaseRuns, RS/G, and RA/G times four years) that have each improved season over season since 2022 with the decreasing BaseRuns from 2022 to 2023 the lone holdout.

Truly insane stuff.

These are interesting numbers, and clearly they show that the Brewers have improved. I’m just not sure they establish why.

Several categories overlap. Runs scored and runs allowed produce run differential, while winning percentage is largely the result of that differential. Base runs uses many of the same underlying offensive events to estimate how many runs a team should score. Therefore “19 of 20 categories” sounds like 20 separate findings when it is mostly several ways of describing the same improvement.

The starting point and August 4 cut off are also selective, and there is no comparison with other contenders or adjustment for strength, injuries and roster changes. 
 

Yeah the numbers don’t lie but when used this way they become like a Rorschach test: the same numbers can be arranged and interpreted to support the explanation someone already finds persuasive .
 

 

[wiguy94]

I’d like to see Bauers and Turang both get the day off today against the LHP.

C - Contreras 

1B - Vaughn

2B - Hamilton

3B - Ortiz

SS - Pratt

LF - Chourio

CF - Mitchell

RF - Lara

DH - Sanchez

 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

These are interesting numbers, and clearly they show that the Brewers have improved. I’m just not sure they establish why.

In the macro they've improved because they've increased their runs scored per game by +0.56 while simultaneously decreasing their runs allowed per game by -0.44, which as you noted combine to increase their run differential from +0.23 R/G in 2022, to +1.23 R/G so far this year.

If one wanted to dig a little deeper they could find that one reason for the offense scoring more runs is that they have improved greatly with RISP from 2022 to 2023 (22nd in PA | 6th in wRC+ | 15th in RBI) versus these last three seasons (1st in PA | 2nd in wRC+ | 1st in RBI). Their RISP opportunities increased along with their OBP, from .317 (15th during 2022 to 2023) up to .332 (2nd since 2024) and more balls in play (23.9 K% in 2022 to 21.5 K% in 2026). Massive improvement on the bases from +7.9 BsR (10th from 2022 to 2023) up to +42.8 BsR (1st by over 17 runs from 2024 to 2026) has helped too. 

On the run prevention side the 2022 to 2024 teams relied much more on their defense (+171 DRS and +88 FRV | both 2nd in MLB) with a 90 ERA- that was fourth, but a 99 FIP- that came in 15th. The raw -0.38 run gap between their 3.73 ERA and 4.11 FIP was the largest in MLB over that stretch. These last two years they've still gotten some help from the defense (+61 DRS | 8th and +28 FRV | 7th) but their 86 ERA- (1st) has been more in line with their peripherals (92 FIP- | t-3rd) with a smaller -0.26 run gap between their 3.55 ERA and 3.81 FIP.

Looking at the individual peripheral components...

2022 to 24
106 K+ | 99 BB+ | 105 HR+
2025 to 2026
113 K+ | 102 BB+ | 91 HR+

...and the underlying numbers show Brewers pitchers have traded a small increase in walk rate for much larger improvements in striking out batters and limiting home runs.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, willie key said:

Might have to stick Bauers there soon as soon as Turang gets it out of his system

Brice Turang fighting knee pain, dropped in lineup.  Jake Bauers has a fractured right big toe and shin splints in both legs. 

[thammondwis]

Hope May turns things around.  But as of now I think he is at the bottom of the list of possible playoff starting pitchers for the crew.

[BruisedCrew]

The last cycle through the rotation was pretty bad. Only one really good start (and that resulted in a loss) and several really bad ones, including May’s. The offense and bullpen were responsible for the 3 wins. 

Hopefully May can lead the way to a better week of starts and give the bullpen a break. 

[homer]

23 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

Hope May turns things around.  But as of now I think he is at the bottom of the list of possible playoff starting pitchers for the crew.

Welcome to Brewerfan!

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

In the macro they've improved because they've increased their runs scored per game by +0.56 while simultaneously decreasing their runs allowed per game by -0.44, which as you noted combine to increase their run differential from +0.23 R/G in 2022, to +1.23 R/G so far this year.

If one wanted to dig a little deeper they could find that one reason for the offense scoring more runs is that they have improved greatly with RISP from 2022 to 2023 (22nd in PA | 6th in wRC+ | 15th in RBI) versus these last three seasons (1st in PA | 2nd in wRC+ | 1st in RBI). Their RISP opportunities increased along with their OBP, from .317 (15th during 2022 to 2023) up to .332 (2nd since 2024) and more balls in play (23.9 K% in 2022 to 21.5 K% in 2026). Massive improvement on the bases from +7.9 BsR (10th from 2022 to 2023) up to +42.8 BsR (1st by over 17 runs from 2024 to 2026) has helped too. 

On the run prevention side the 2022 to 2024 teams relied much more on their defense (+171 DRS and +88 FRV | both 2nd in MLB) with a 90 ERA- that was fourth, but a 99 FIP- that came in 15th. The raw -0.38 run gap between their 3.73 ERA and 4.11 FIP was the largest in MLB over that stretch. These last two years they've still gotten some help from the defense (+61 DRS | 8th and +28 FRV | 7th) but their 86 ERA- (1st) has been more in line with their peripherals (92 FIP- | t-3rd) with a smaller -0.26 run gap between their 3.55 ERA and 3.81 FIP.

Looking at the individual peripheral components...

2022 to 24
106 K+ | 99 BB+ | 105 HR+
2025 to 2026
113 K+ | 102 BB+ | 91 HR+

...and the underlying numbers show Brewers pitchers have traded a small increase in walk rate for much larger improvements in striking out batters and limiting home runs.

The larger question remains unanswered: why did those numbers improve? Was it player development, better personnel decisions, coaching, strategy, health, schedule strength, normal statistical variation or some combination? Breaking run differential into its component statistics describes where the improvement appeared, I’d just like to know the cause of that improvement which is what is not established by the metrics. 

[long ball]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

The larger question remains unanswered: why did those numbers improve? Was it player development, better personnel decisions, coaching, strategy, health, schedule strength, normal statistical variation or some combination? Breaking run differential into its component statistics describes where the improvement appeared, I’d just like to know the cause of that improvement which is what is not established by the metrics. 

I don’t know how to even look this up, but anecdotally… it feels like Murphy uses his best pitchers more than Counsell did. Murphy will chase wins when we are down 1-2 runs. This might partially be the result of different personnel though. More good pitchers and/or better hitters. 
 

now this says nothing about the underlying metrics, but it feels like winning a few games Counsell would’ve conceded in the 6th inning while still holding onto the same number of leads is enough to push the team from low 90s to mid-upper 90s wins. 

[edfunderburk]

This made me laugh! 😂 

 

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I’d like to see Bauers and Turang both get the day off today against the LHP.

C - Contreras 

1B - Vaughn

2B - Hamilton

3B - Ortiz

SS - Pratt

LF - Chourio

CF - Mitchell

RF - Lara

DH - Sanchez

 

Ask and ye shall receive cause that is indeed the lineup except with Sanchez and Contreras switched. 

[HarryDoyle]

Here's to hoping we get the same Abbott that the Cubs got last week.

[markedman5]

Certainly a batting order we’ve never seen before 

 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I like this lineup.  Well done Murph

[da swedish german]

lol at MLB shops labor day "sale".  50 bucks for a hoodless sweatshirt

that meat tube is clearly not a brat and looks dangerously close to a disgusting Chicago dog.  that may be kraut or onions on top, but those are clearly poppy seeds on the bun......

[liveforoctober]

Mental note that Sanchez is catching May once again. This is four of May's six starts.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

May the Challenge (Force) be with us!