Josh Hader Traded to the Padres

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

There is absolutely no need to accuse someone of being part of the PR wing of the Brewers for encouraging people not to rush to judgment on the Hader trade. It's not respectful and contributes nothing to the discussion.

Nice straw man you threw in there, still attacking the guy even though you're not talking to him. My point is just that if you guys feel the need to belittle his opinion you can't cry foul when he does the same. I don't think it's all that productive to continue responding to you about this, obviously wasn't to post about it at all. I'd just block you but I enjoy your posts when you talk about baseball.

[UpandIn]

9 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Obviously the Brewers front office likes those two prospects much better than you staring at an arbitrary MLB Pipeline prospect list. How about we see how these guys play out a bit before concluding that "the return couldn't be much weaker"? I remember very similar sentiments in the Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer swap, and that has turned out quite swimmingly in the other direction.

Oh c'mon...the lists are "arbitrary" now? You think they're just throwing names into a hat and then pulling them out?

And I do not recall the same sentiments about the Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer swap. I remember after Grisham's 1st year in SD, that's when people started to say the Padres won(so in other words, after we saw how those guys played out for a bit). 

And then the people who still liked that trade often cited the aforementioned "arbitrary" MLB Pipeline rankings in which Urias was ranked 23rd in baseball. What seems more arbitrary is when we lean on those rankings vs when we ignore them.
Now that trade seems like it worked out very well for both sides. Padres thus far have gotten more WAR for that trade, no? Looks better for the Brewers moving forward, but...worked out well for SD as well. So not sure that's the dominant Win. SD has gotten more total WAR back thus far, no? 

Really just seems inconsistent when people are talking about the prospect rankings. 

[UpandIn]

5 hours ago, brewers888 said:

No that was not the sentiment on the Urias/Lauer deal because Urias was considered to be a top prospect. The reaction to that trade was far better than this one and rightfully so.

That's my recollection of the trade.

[Nola Beery]

Maybe I'm too late here, but on the MLBTV app  I saw a short interview with Mark Attanasio about the Hader trade.  It's far from an endorsement of Stearns:  a shrug-shoulders-not-my-call response.    Sorry I have no link. Maybe there's more?  

[SRB]

8 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

Ok. Then delete every post that says it's positive too?  Do you not see any equity?  If people are going to love a trade that we don't see any of the long-term benefits they shouldn't be posting either, which goes back to my previous point of this is a website to dissect the Brewers, Isn't it? If you want it to be the PR wing of the Brewers then maybe Brock can do a deal where Adam McCalvye-esque posts and articles are the only content allowed.  Everyone join us at noon CST/CDT to sing the Brewers fight song.

That's something of a false equivalency though, because the "positive" takes are based on an objective acknowledgement that on a certain level we as fans are incapable of accurately assessing prospect value based on lists from a handful of national outlets (which do not offer a complete picture for a number of reasons), and that we should trust that the front office is better than us at evaluating prospects.

I'm fully with you that it's less fun for us as fans when the return is a couple of "low ranked" prospects rather than flashy names that we can insert into the Baseball America Top 100 list, and that's part of why I'm not a huge fan of the trade, but I also acknowledge that that reaction is somewhat irrational and I'm not going to call the prospects we got "worthless." To me the best comparison is not the Grisham trade, but the Adam Lind trade when a lot of posters on here were angry that we ended up with an unknown prospect named Freddy Peralta.

The only scenario where I think we as fans can fairly be mad at the front office is if you think they just gave Hader away as a means of slashing 2023 payroll. But ownership has not operated the team that way in many years now, and it seems highly unlikely to me in a year that we are competing for the playoffs. I think the front office just really likes the return they got.

(I personally would have preferred to keep Hader though, even if it meant just letting him walk after 2023 with a qualifying offer.)

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, SRB said:

That's something of a false equivalency though, because the "positive" takes are based on an objective acknowledgement that on a certain level we as fans are incapable of accurately assessing prospect value based on lists from a handful of national outlets (which do not offer a complete picture for a number of reasons), and that we should trust that the front office is better than us at evaluating prospects.

I'm fully with you that it's less fun for us as fans when the return is a couple of "low ranked" prospects rather than flashy names that we can insert into the Baseball America Top 100 list, and that's part of why I'm not a huge fan of the trade, but I also acknowledge that that reaction is somewhat irrational and I'm not going to call the prospects we got "worthless." To me the best comparison is not the Grisham trade, but the Adam Lind trade when a lot of posters on here were angry that we ended up with an unknown prospect named Freddy Peralta.

The only scenario where I think we as fans can fairly be mad at the front office is if you think they just gave Hader away as a means of slashing 2023 payroll. But ownership has not operated the team that way in many years now, and it seems highly unlikely to me in a year that we are competing for the playoffs. I think the front office just really likes the return they got.

(I personally would have preferred to keep Hader though, even if it meant just letting him walk after 2023 with a qualifying offer.)

I haven't seen the prospects referred to as worthless, but yeah, that's well over the top.

I try to look at these trades as I would the draft(as it pertains to prospects). I have a preference, but ultimately I appreciate my own ignorance. My opinions are derived mostly from scouting reports put together that get to be a bit standard across baseball. So I appreciate that take. 

With regard to the payroll, I don't think they moved Hader because of any directive from Attanasio. Frankly, he seemed...a bit annoyed(maybe disappointed would be a better way to put it) but HE has put his trust in Stearns. He's earned that.

So I see all that. Not sure I'm with you on the Lind trade comp. There just really isn't one in Brewers history for this trade. Trading away the best in baseball at a position, even if it's the least valuable position, it's a difficult juxtaposition to really square up. You got worse in that trade so you could get better in the future. You trade away the most dominant reliever...maybe ever through the first 4 years of his career. And then I found some of the arguments maybe a bit disingenuous. The argument that Rogers really isn't much different than Hader. I think that leaves out a lot of nuance. Having Hader AND Williams made the backend of this pen feared. And then the flip side to the prospects we've gotten(again, calling them worthless is silly)...it feels like the advocates of the trades diminished the guys we sent out.

 We still have 2 aces. We still have a 3rd pitcher like Peralta who can be a #2, Lauer and Ashby can be REALLY elite. And Baseball is a wild sport. Get in, you got a chance and there are dozens of examples...not the least of which are the Braves from last year.

 

So, to my mind, time to wish Hader, Kelly, Peters good luck, move past it and hope we can get some good luck, hope that maybe Ruiz can come up and provide a lift in CF(or Frelick).

And if nothing else, if Ruiz doesn't help the team this year, he's a young guy on the cusp of the bigs who's gonna have value in the off-season. He'll be WORTH quite a bit. And I know this is getting TLTR, but Attanasio did infer that DS had a "series" of trades he'd hoped to complete. Maybe Ruiz was a big part of that and he's used in the off-season to supplement next years team if he's right and those did fall through. 

Basically, lets get over it now. If it's not something you liked, I'm with you, but I'm moving on.

[Brewcrew82]

Josh Hader with another blow-up appearance against the Giants. Removed from the game after nearly 40 pitches and blowing a three run lead. ERA up to 4.66....Maybe the Brewers knew something?

[wildcat2237]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Josh Hader with another blow-up appearance against the Giants. Removed from the game after nearly 40 pitches and blowing a three run lead. ERA up to 4.66....Maybe the Brewers knew something?

Stearns may yet rule the day.

If Hader's time as an elite reliever is over then he made the trade at precisely the right moment. 

[edfunderburk]

17 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Josh Hader with another blow-up appearance against the Giants. Removed from the game after nearly 40 pitches and blowing a three run lead. ERA up to 4.66....Maybe the Brewers knew something?

My immediate response to the trade - which I posted early in this thread - I’m thrilled he was traded 

In the Brewers loss to the Giants several weeks ago, Hader was throwing batting practice - I’ve never seen anyone give up three homers & six runs in 1/3 inning as a closer

That was partially on Counsell for letting him experience that epic fail

I’m not surprised by what happened last night in San Diego … they have the bats to overcome such poor pitching on occasion 

I believe come end of the season, Stearns will be revered for moving Hader … hopefully, Rogers, Williams, Bush - maybe Rosenthal - will provide steady closer innings & get us to the playoffs

[edfunderburk]

San Diego is 2-5 since the trade deadline

Hader has pitched in three games … he’s given up three earned runs in 2 & 2/3 innings - one save, one blown save where he had to be removed (in a game they won)

[Outlander]

8 hours ago, wildcat2237 said:

Stearns may yet rule the day.

If Hader's time as an elite reliever is over then he made the trade at precisely the right moment. 

We will have to see but yeah there is certainly a chance the Padres non tender or trade him after the season for less than the Brewers received.

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Josh Hader with another blow-up appearance against the Giants. Removed from the game after nearly 40 pitches and blowing a three run lead. ERA up to 4.66....Maybe the Brewers knew something?

It's weird. But he was so filthy in his last outing vs Boston and then his first outing for the Pads. First couple. 

But it's weird. I will use this on Twitter either way though as I'm so sick of the "the Brewers gave up" crowd. Matt Bush was dominant last night and Hader was terrible. Not sure I believe it's more than he's just going through another little mini-slump, but I'm not above being petty. That's what Twitter was made for.

[folly412]

Hader did an interview with SD reporters last week where he said he was tipping pitches and was able to fix that.  Even so, his stuff is normally so tough that the 50/50 on whether the fastball or the slider was coming wouldn't have been enough for MN and SF to tee off the way they did. 

Looks like he only gave up a single last night, but walked three and hit a batter.  When he was struggling in July for us, the fastball was sitting lower half rather than the very top and slider was middle rather than bottom/below the zone.  Seems he just isn't right at the moment.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

It's weird. But he was so filthy in his last outing vs Boston and then his first outing for the Pads. First couple. 

But it's weird. I will use this on Twitter either way though as I'm so sick of the "the Brewers gave up" crowd. Matt Bush was dominant last night and Hader was terrible. Not sure I believe it's more than he's just going through another little mini-slump, but I'm not above being petty. That's what Twitter was made for.

Three ways the Brewer nation lets this trade go...

If Hader does so poorly they remove him from closer.

Hader gets hurt for the rest of the year.

Brewers go further in playoffs this year AND next year. 

As a whole, most saw no reason for this trade at this moment. The two prospects of similar quality could have been picked up in the offseason. 

[UpandIn]

15 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Three ways the Brewer nation lets this trade go...

If Hader does so poorly they remove him from closer.

Hader gets hurt for the rest of the year.

Brewers go further in playoffs this year AND next year. 

As a whole, most saw no reason for this trade at this moment. The two prospects of similar quality could have been picked up in the offseason. 

They've got go further this year AND next year? I'd think if they just go further this year and maybe Ruiz looks good, then by next year Gasser is throwing out of the pen and looking good...we could have something.

Lamet looking good for the Rockies is another twist is all this that is gonna be annoying. 

 

[mtrebs]

I’m on vacation so I haven’t been asked to keep up with hope things are going, but I think most of the fans would have been ok with the Hader trade if it or other moves would have improved the MLB team for this season. The moves at the trade deadline don’t appear to have done that (although it’s early) and the decisions like the Lamet fiasco further compound the frustration/anger/confusion.

[Jopal78]

47 minutes ago, mtrebs said:

I’m on vacation so I haven’t been asked to keep up with hope things are going, but I think most of the fans would have been ok with the Hader trade if it or other moves would have improved the MLB team for this season. The moves at the trade deadline don’t appear to have done that (although it’s early) and the decisions like the Lamet fiasco further compound the frustration/anger/confusion.

It's gotten off to a rocky start, but the idea of having Milner, Gott, Boxberger, Bush, Rogers, Rosenthal, and Williams in theory is a good one. It puts a lot of pressure on teams to get their runs early because the Brewers starters don't have to go through a line up a third time, and with the exception of Milner, Milwaukee can keep bringing in pitchers who throw hard. Also, there is less reliance on the likes of Suter, Gustave, Trevor Kelley, etc. 

The fans probably would have appreciated them getting a hitter, but shouldn't be surprised. There are several comments from the GM that the team is built as a "run prevention unit". He also had previously said that offensive improvement will most likely have to come from within. 

[monty57]

I've stepped back from this for a few days now to let emotions subside.

I've been fairly positive on it because I think that over the long-haul the Brewers will easily win this trade based on the "WAR given up vs WAR received" argument. I think that Stearns really likes Gasser and Ruiz and wanted them in the system, and he feels that Rogers is a nice guy to keep the 'pen a strength for the remainder of this season. Rogers' 2022 WAR isn't going to be that far off from Hader's, and if they are indeed part of the Brewers' future plans, Gasser and Ruiz should easily provide more WAR for the Brewers over their combined tenures than Hader will accrue in one season.

I understand that my outlook of looking at the long-term in everything is not how most people look at things, and I understand why many fans have a negative impression of this trade. 

I do think that 10 years from now, we'll look back on this and say that we did well in the trade.

[Thurston Fluff]

8 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I understand that my outlook of looking at the long-term in everything is not how most people look at things, and I understand why many fans have a negative impression of this trade. 

I do think that 10 years from now, we'll look back on this and say that we did well in the trade.

I'd bet at least half of us agree with you. The half that disagrees tend to be more vocal. It's human nature to be more vocal when you disagree with something. I think the all in crowd is going to be more disappointed in the Brewers approach in general because not doing every thing to win now is anathema to their belief of how to win it all. Given the negatives are always louder and the Brewers approach is the opposite of what half the fans want it will always seem like there's more negative sentiment than there really is.

[rickh150]

52 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I'd bet at least half of us agree with you. The half that disagrees tend to be more vocal. It's human nature to be more vocal when you disagree with something. I think the all in crowd is going to be more disappointed in the Brewers approach in general because not doing every thing to win now is anathema to their belief of how to win it all. Given the negatives are always louder and the Brewers approach is the opposite of what half the fans want it will always seem like there's more negative sentiment than there really is.

The deadline was a disaster.  Not a fan of letting Hader go for similar of what we could get in 2023 (and keeping him for 22 is not ALL IN), not picking up a bat, trading for a guy on the IL who hasn’t pitched in two years,  giving Lamet away AND THEN cutting McGee, and keeping Suter around. 

Comparing all Brewers deadlines and offseason transactions, the Fingers, Simmons, and Vuke pickup for ‘81 was hands down the best. The ‘22 deadline is arguably the worst so far. Here’s hoping it is judged much differently at season’s end and in 5/10 years, but as of right now we are arguably a little worse than before the deadline while all the other NL contenders got better, many in areas of their weakness.
 

 

[Joseph Zarr]

I personally have very little emotional reaction to this trade as a fan of baseball but I completely understand negative reactions to the trade. From my vantage point, it simply comes down to: the trade happened and a Hader trade had been rumored or discussed for several years. Were mistakes made? I have no idea - it's simply much much too early to tell. Was the timing good? Probably not.

I think @Tim Mumaspoke effectively to the possible emotional impact on the ball club in his News piece today. I consider it comparable to what happened in Seattle last year when they traded beloved teammate and high-leverage reliever, Kendall Graveman. That clubhouse was an emotional wreck and the 2021 Mariners team scuffled in the immediate aftermath but then recovered quite well as they fought for the Playoffs.

As of now, I can simply share: I was highly impressed by Gasser's first Double-A start. He has a ridiculous baseline to work with a really really nice four pitch Starter with possibly five depending upon how he grows and matures. The interviews I've seen match what I saw (albeit, yes, one start) on the mound. He understands the AB and clearly has a plan. He drops speeds to 75-76 and elevates up to 95-96. His slider easily drops a foot and horizontally probably moves more. I'm quite excited about his upside and potential. I was also quite impressed with Ruiz's first start and the initial plate approach I witnessed. Since that time, I would say it's been up and down and, honestly, not all that much of note. Of the two prospects, I'm personally much more enamored with having Gasser as a possible future Ace. And, just like judging the trade, it's much too early to tell. I obviously hope it works out for the Brewers in both counts - and, I wouldn't be surprised if for whatever reason(s) it didn't work out. Projecting these things is just a very difficult thing to do. I will say, with the uncertainty of Garrett Mitchell's injuries (though, he's been fantastic since his IL return) and Joey Wiemer's seemingly ongoing hand issues (conjecture - not confirmed) adding another prospect into that pool makes sense from a roster-building vantage point. 

I wish Josh all the best of success in San Diego. And, I hope the Brewers also benefit. 

My meaningless two cents. 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

The deadline was a disaster.  Not a fan of letting Hader go for similar of what we could get in 2023

I could be smarky and ask which GMs you polled who said that the Brewers would be able to get a similar return for Hader in 2023.  But it's definitive statements like these that are what people are criticizing because the reality is that none of us know what Hader would have fetched in 2023.

One former GM has said publicly that pitchers get a better return at the deadline and hitters get a better return in the offseason.  If that's true, then it may be very likely that the Brewers got a better return for Hader now.  Certainly the more games a player can be used, the higher the value, thus the higher return - on a games available basis, he certainly has more value now than in 2023.  Plus, teams have to account for risk.  If Hader gets injured, or if he has more games like last night, he sure as heck won't return similar to what he did last week.  There certainly is risk to the Brewers holding on to Hader, and that was clearly demonstrated last night.

But the reality is that none of us know what is going to happen in the future, so stop making definitive statements.

[LouisEly]

And as far as McGee vs. Suter, McGee (in a very small sample) had a 6.35 ERA, 6.82 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 3.2 HR/9.

Suter has a 4.22 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, and 1.1 HR/9 this year.

How is keeping Suter over McGee even debatable?  McGee was released by the Giants for a reason.

[Robocaller]

16 hours ago, wildcat2237 said:

Stearns may yet rule the day.

If Hader's time as an elite reliever is over then he made the trade at precisely the right moment. 

well. . . a couple weeks too late. but I don't think Hader is finished (unless he has some injury that is undisclosed/unknown).

[Robocaller]

32 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

And as far as McGee vs. Suter, McGee (in a very small sample) had a 6.35 ERA, 6.82 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 3.2 HR/9.

Suter has a 4.22 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, and 1.1 HR/9 this year.

How is keeping Suter over McGee even debatable?  McGee was released by the Giants for a reason.

Obviously you could make a different decision if you looked at a different timescale--one that included McGee's excellence last year.