Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[brewcrewdue80]

Finally got through the 13+ pages on this Burnes trade. 

DL HALL is the make or break stud potential in this trade.  I like the Drew Rasmussen comp.  Hall can pitch in the bullpen and spot start in 24 while gaining his SP innings limit.

Ortiz solves the future SS depth beyond Turang. Plus defensively with a more stable bat/bigger exit velocities than Brice.

Was it enough for Burnes?  I'd have expected a 3rd piece in their 15-30 rankings. Hall is such a high risk deserved a throw in for.

Think there's quite an overreaction.  Hoskins signing makes more sense to me. Trade deadline you can move him. Understand he's returning from injury. He looks every bit the 22 Hoskins teams are calling to acquire him. On top of our need for 1b.

Do we see a piggyback type of use for Hall?  Gasser/Hall? Hall starts followed by Gasser? Ross in this scenario? You'd be looking for 3IP and late season 5ip.  If you're not playing for the division, you could deal with the struggled outings keeping Hall in there.

 

 

 

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

This trade fits what the Brewers claimed to want to do all along. Attain as many controllable assets as possible and remain competitive year in and year out. I think some people viewed the Hoskins signing as an all in type of move. I viewed it as fixing weakness while not hurting the future.

I think the run prevention plan this season is to get their starters through four or five innings, rely on their defense and use what looks to be a dominant bullpen more. From what I've read so far, Hall has a great fastball slider combo and a developing change up. In the pen he can rely on his best two pitches more and become the lefty version of Uribe setting up Williams. We also have a lot of relievers who can go multiple innings which helps absorb shorter starts. This bullpen has the possibility to shorten games significantly. The defense looks to be reliably well above average again, somewhat mitigating not having dominant starters who get a lot of strikeouts.

The final piece to the puzzle is what should be an improved offense. A few more runs scored, a lock down bullpen and serviceable starters should be enough to remain competitive as is, and there's still room to add another player or two.

[owbc]

53 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

It's one thing to trade Corbin burnes. I understand the need for the team to trade that player, but you gotta do better than this. I view it similar to the Hoskins signing. Allocating payroll to 1b makes sense, I just have concerns about the ACL and wonder if the deal was a good one.

Regardless of my thoughts on the trade, trading burnes is a very clear indication that the way the Brewers win baseball games is going to have to be different going forward. There's gonna need to be a lot more 8-5 wins than 4-2 wins this year if we are gonna be any good.

To me the biggest challenge is filling those ~200 innings with pitching that is above replacement level. 

[wibadgers23]

I’m assuming both Hall and Ortiz are locks to be on the OD roster, considering their age?

[Oxy]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

True impact talent tends to get to MLB sooner. You pointing out one case of a 25 year old coming up and being a star doesn't change that. You're also making way too much of COVID, has there been a significant change in pattern of prospects coming up? COVID halted the minor leagues for one year and all of a sudden all the prospects had a massive setback? Or, maybe hall had a setback because he's simply gonna be a guy that has good stuff but doesn't have the command to go deep in games and is gonna slot into relief. This isn't some rare phenomenon caused by COVID.

I agree with this for position players.  Impact pitching can come at anytime at any age. In fact, I'd say that a lot of phenom young pitchers--like Cy Young guys at 25 or under--often are flash in the pans or injuries derail their careers.

[AKCheesehead]

All I'll add at this point is a prediction: 

I predict Burnes will throw a no-hitter for Baltimore this year. 

Following in the footsteps of Colborn, Bosio, Nomo, Fiers and Miley to throw one after leaving MKE.  (And whoever else I'm missing)

Not judging the trade because it's impossible at this point.  It could range anywhere from bad to best trade we've ever had, time will tell.

[markedman5]

In depth podcast about the trade…….these guys really like what we got.

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

It's obviously not a fair comparison, because triple-A vs. majors, but Ortiz was very much the Bo Bichette of triple-A last year. From their exit velocities to their hard-hit rate to their lack of fly balls to their lower walk rates, it is kind of uncanny.

Honestly Ortiz was just a tick behind Westburg for the hardest hitting shortstop in AAA last year, and was better in many ways than Kjerstad on that team.

[markedman5]

https://www.mlb.com/news/executives-react-to-corbin-burnes-trade

[Team Canada]

6 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Wouldn’t read much into it. He is one of the rare cases of an MLB players using Twitter like NFL players…like a 13 year old teenager. 

He did the same thing after Counsell signed with the Cubs. Pretty sure ye had some tweet after getting traded here. He just likes to make knee jerk reactions with emojis. Everyone else just thinks the same privately.

It would be weird if people were tweeting confetti emojis. Of course players are going to be sad he's going. Who wouldn't be? It doesn't mean you think management are morons (necessarily), it's a human reaction to losing a really good pitcher and teammate that you just spent the better part of a year hanging out with all day.

[Jenkins5]

 

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

In depth podcast about the trade…….these guys really like what we got.

 

It seems like everyone who works in baseball or studies the game a lot really like what Brewers got back. O's fans from forum boards i read are excited to get Burnes but were really high on these 2. Hall in particular was a fan favorite in there and they really hate to see him go. Ortiz, they really like and are happy he will finally get a chance to show what he can do. He was just really blocked on what is a really good roster. If you believe in the trade value crap, it is pretty equal.

Really the only people crapping on the players we got and the deal are Brewer fans. Mostly because they wanted close to the moon for one year of Burnes who also has gone from 7.6 WAR to 4.2 to 3.4 over the past three years (still really good but hasn't been out there just lights out). Fans had sights on Mayo (as did I) who the O's legit could have made untouchable. They have a front office who is now cooking and focused on long term competitiveness in small market ball. If they see Mayo in their long term plans, they aren't giving him up and all that control. 

 

The rotation has questions for sure. I naturally already skip watching any game Rea is pitching so I get frustrations with where its at on paper. However, I doubt Arnold is done. He still has plenty of cards to play. He has a log jam in the OF he can deal from and a top 3 Farm system to go find another arm. I also love watching young talented arms even with the ups and downs. If Ashby is back to 100%, that is huge. Brewers love him and gave him that contract. He has a mlb career 3.18 xFIP, 10.7 k/9 to 3.7 BB/9. 27 K% in 140ip. Also just nasty stuff.

Hall in rotation will be big win but in pen is great as well.  I'm a big Baby Capuano Gasser guy so excited to see him. Rodriquez and Mis probably make it up at some point this season and I am excited for that. 

Overall, this season will be bit of a mystery on how they do but helps set up for a really nice team in 25'. A lot of getting young guys Innings and PAs. Excited to see how it goes. 

 

[duewizard]

Having thought about it more, I think I am fine with the return, Hall is a HUGE question mark. Can he control his stuff enough to be a starter?

Ortiz is decent and can contribute.

The draft pick is also pretty great because of the extra bonus pool money. The 34th pick is assigned 2.48 million. Lets us get another Cooper Pratt.

I think I would have been perfect with the deal had we gotten a lotto ticket/lower-ranked prospect. Someone like Trace Bright or Alex Pham. Interesting arms, far from guarantees.

Overall, I think its to early to form an opinion. Can't wait to see the new guys in Spring Training.

[markedman5]

13 minutes ago, duewizard said:

Having thought about it more, I think I am fine with the return, Hall is a HUGE question mark. Can he control his stuff enough to be a starter?

Ortiz is decent and can contribute.

The draft pick is also pretty great because of the extra bonus pool money. The 34th pick is assigned 2.48 million. Lets us get another Cooper Pratt.

I think I would have been perfect with the deal had we gotten a lotto ticket/lower-ranked prospect. Someone like Trace Bright or Alex Pham. Interesting arms, far from guarantees.

Overall, I think its to early to form an opinion. Can't wait to see the new guys in Spring Training.

According to the guys on that podcast Hall made some mechanical changes mid season and over his last 13(?) appearances or so had an excellent strikeout to walk ratio…….i guess we will see.

I’m starting to get some Packer vibes with the Brewers now…..letting the young guys grow together……probably be some real rough patches but exciting growth as the season goes on.

[StearnsFTW]

Brewers now with #2, 33, 35, 46 & 63 on MLB top 100.

[liveforoctober]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

I’m starting to get some Packer vibes with the Brewers now…..letting the young guys grow together……probably be some real rough patches but exciting growth as the season goes on.

I just said this to my brother tonight. Chourio is our Love and Yelich is our Jones... if they trade Adames and/or Williams ... they are just handing the reigns of this franchise over to the new era ... all young and inexperienced and we are going to learn and grow with them. Lots of highs and lots of lows.

[brewmann04]

Willy is going next 

[StearnsFTW]

3 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

Willy is going next 

Hopefully 

[wibadgers23]

4 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

Willy is going next 

Yeah hopefully for some pitching.

[liveforoctober]

Trade Willy for some pitching. Sign Bauer. Easy division win.

[KeithStone53151]

9 hours ago, Oxy said:

It's not a clear indication of anything.  Burnes was good last year...but as a previous post laid out he didn't actually win games for the Brewers.  They were like 17-14 when he started, or something like that.  The defense is a big reason for all of our pitcher's success. 

Defense is certainly helpful, but I've always felt like defense is significantly overvalued at this level of baseball. The number of outs turang is gonna convert over an average 2b is probably not a big number.

The defense should be good again, assuming Arnold doesn't further pull the rug out from under us. So we'll find out in this case if our limitation of runs was because of the defense or in large part because we woodruff/burnes.

[KeithStone53151]

9 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

2022 was Ortiz's 2nd full minor league season, which also happened to be when the Orioles were just crawling out from their Astros-esque prospect hoarding doldrums and started having to call guys up to the majors because they were out of room stockpiling talent down on the farm while their MLB team was losing 100+ games a season.

And I'd wager the Orioles' decision to trade Ortiz is 1% based on what their opinion of what he could be as an everyday MLB shortstop/middle infielder offensively, and 99% to do with realizing Ortiz is totally blocked at that position by two other players who project to be better than him, and basically all other MLB shortstops.

To your other post - I'm not saying Covid caused prospects to regress in development, but I do think it caused them delays in being MLB-ready products and leads to difficulty projecting what their prime production seasons will look like.  You're right, HOF-caliber talent starts playing baseball at the major league level younger than 25....it's also untradeable for a veteran pitcher with 1 year left of team control before reaching free agency, no matter how great the pitcher was 3 years ago when he won a Cy Young while only having to take the ball every 6th day due to a deep rotation and bullpen.

You're moving the goal post and arguing something in not arguing. I made the point that the Orioles continued to run Mateo out for an entire season while ortiz had success at AAA after having success at AAA in 2022...you responded by saying that primary reason for trade is he's blocked "referring to holliday/Henderson I assume". If you're going to put that much time into a response, I recommend actually responding to the argument instead of shifting the argument to something that better fits your narrative.

[KeithStone53151]

9 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Lol. It’s the same logic you’re applying. That because someone couldn’t supplant a guy with a .607 OPS it automatically means they’re a bust. That’s the only reason it seems crazy. 

I don’t know where you’re getting your facts from, but Ortiz most definitely did not spend all of 2022 and 2023 in MLB….

Also, you do realize that the Orioles had Gunnar Henderson playing SS ahead of Ortiz, too? And Jordan Westburg in the infield, too. He was quite simply blocked by Orioles stacked infield talent. 

If the Orioles thought Ortiz could hit MLB pitching, Mr 607 would have hit the bench at some point and Ortiz would have gotten some playing time. The existence of Henderson and Westburg doesn't change the fact that mateo got 350 PA last year. The Orioles, despite him sucking, thought mateo was a better option for those PAs than ortiz.

Also, trending towards being a bust is different than being a bust. Is this the new trendy thing on bfnet to twist words and shift arguments in order to win, rather than argue in good faith?

[KeithStone53151]

7 hours ago, Oxy said:

I agree with this for position players.  Impact pitching can come at anytime at any age. In fact, I'd say that a lot of phenom young pitchers--like Cy Young guys at 25 or under--often are flash in the pans or injuries derail their careers.

Fair point. Pitchers still have a tendency to get to MLB sooner than 25, but a significant number of arms don't truly figure it out until much later. There are a fair amount of serious late bloomers. Junior Guerra stands out.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

If the Orioles thought Ortiz could hit MLB pitching, Mr 607 would have hit the bench at some point and Ortiz would have gotten some playing time. The existence of Henderson and Westburg doesn't change the fact that mateo got 350 PA last year. The Orioles, despite him sucking, thought mateo was a better option for those PAs than ortiz.

Yeah, because playoff teams haven't chosen to go with veterans over prospects before in a playoff chase....

Their preferred infield (and the one they featured in the postseason) was Urias at 3B, Henderson at SS, and Westburg at 2B. Mateo off the bench. That's the definition of being blocked my man.

What a bizarre narrative you're trying to spin that because Ortiz wasn't immediately installed as a starter in their infield the Orioles viewed him as a bust. 

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Brewers now with #2, 33, 35, 46 & 63 on MLB top 100.

In theory, Hall would also slot in there at #93