Cubs favorite to win the Central…….again

[markedman5]

More things change the more they stay the same 

 

[Team Canada]

So basically a tossup, and add in how the Brewers continually overperform, that's easy money right there. :)

[CheezWizHed]

Second verse, same as the first!  A little bit louder, and a little bit worse!

[treego14]

One year they will be right!

Until then, we are the Cubs fright!

[CheeseheadInQC]

Honestly, tied for the fourth best record in the NL is better than they are usually predicted to be.

[wallus]

If they had resigned Tucker, I would see it but it's premature at the moment to be honest.

As it stands, I think the Brewers are just as good if not better than last season.

[pitchleague]

2 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Honestly, tied for the fourth best record in the NL is better than they are usually predicted to be.

I was going to say the same thing.  At least this time they decided to give the Brewers some credit for over-performing each season.  This is a totally fine prediction.

[TURBO]

3 hours ago, wallus said:

As it stands, I think the Brewers are just as good if not better than last season.

How so, I'm curious...

[Frisbee Slider]

Is betonline.ag a credible source of information? 

[wallus]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

How so, I'm curious...

Lots of young talent (Chourio, Durbin, Ortiz, etc) nearing their prime years and hopefully will repeat or do better than 2025. Woody, Mitchell, Priester, Vaughn, Miz, Henderson, Gasser hopefully for the whole season. Contreras won't play with a broken finger all season. Yes, there will be injuries but some of these guys contributed very little in 2025.

Zerpa is better than Mears. Bauers might have found something. 

Yes you lose Collins but I suspect he wasn't repeating anything like 2025. Quintana was a good veteran innings eater and I suspect they will bring in a guy to do the same yet. 

I only have two guys I am concerned about regressing badly and that would be Megill and Frelick. I doubt Yelich will put up the same numbers but keeping him out of left field seems to be helping.

As it stands, this is a good team still.

[Sixtolezcano]

I wonder how the Cubs Edward Cabrera trade will figure into these predictions?

[kestrel79]

I always go back to this Yellich interview before the season a couple years ago. They all know the early rankings and polls are a joke and never pick the Brewers. But I like it because it motivates the team. Never getting respected. "Because we're the Brewers"

 

 

[tmwiese55]

I was surprised to see their likely starting RF go in this deal.  So, is their plan to play Suzuki in RF full time then?   I thought he's expected to be quite bad if not terrible in the OF.  Seems an odd choice but I'll take it.      That said, I generally like the P they got so not exactly bashing it, but giving up 6-7 years of control guy who seems ready to be a starter in the OF is something I'm ok with

[AdvantageSchneider]

On 1/7/2026 at 4:19 PM, Sixtolezcano said:

I wonder how the Cubs Edward Cabrera trade will figure into these predictions?

The NL central odds haven't changed yet at least at the Poto sportbook.  Cubs and Brewers both still at +225.

[brewcrewdue80]

I agree with the sentiment the Brewers may be better than the team that lead mlb in wins. You'll have more experience from the young core. Woodruff among other pitchers to look towards Opening day potential. Contreras with a healthier hand. Vaughn at 1st. 

There's definitely some regression potential with Durbin, Frelick, Yelich. Priester is hard to expect the win total he had in 25. These projections are worthless until the days leading up to Opening day.  I feel an OF trade needs to be done with Mitchell/Perkins/Lockridge etc. Kinda crowding #3/4/5 if you commit Yelich as only DH.  

It is nice to see a winning season on an offseason projection. I feel its generally 76-80 wins.

[torts]

On 1/6/2026 at 8:03 PM, Frisbee Slider said:

Is betonline.ag a credible source of information? 

It is if you've got an itch to scratch

[jay87shot]

It would feel wrong to be favorite or get any credit from the media at all in the offseason. I listen to mlb radio almost every day for about a half hour and they almost never mention the brewers. They didn't even make on guys top 10 world series contenders list a couple weeks ago.

[SeaBass]

On 1/7/2026 at 4:19 PM, Sixtolezcano said:

I wonder how the Cubs Edward Cabrera trade will figure into these predictions?

For what it's worth, and I don't think it's worth much at all, ESPN put out their power rankings yesterday. The last rankings came out Nov. 2 after the World Series ended. 

The Cubs dropped three spots from 6 to 9 and included the Cabrera trade. Brewers remained at 7.

Power rankings are kinda dumb but I still give them a glance usually out of boredom. I guess they're interesting enough to gauge how others see things.

[edfunderburk]

And now the Cubbies add Bregman for 5 years & $175M

[Frisbee Slider]

34 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

And now the Cubbies add Bregman for 5 years & $175M

Is the Matt Shaw era over? 

Kyle Tucker provides more WAR than Bregman. I don’t mind Chicago paying $35 million per season for the twilight of Bregman’s career.

[nate82]

12 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Kyle Tucker provides more WAR than Bregman. I don’t mind Chicago paying $35 million per season for the twilight of Bregman’s career

Bregman will also more than likely be injured for most of those 5-years.  Probably only gives the Cubs 3 full seasons worth of playing time.  

[TURBO]

I know we do our best here to down play the Cubs and their moves, but the Cubs are trying to get better.  I'd have been in on Tucker over Bregman if I'm the Cubs, but so be it.

I'm hoping that sitting in neutral works for us...

[sveumrules]

51 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I know we do our best here to down play the Cubs and their moves, but the Cubs are trying to get better. 

There is a little more of an onus on the Cubs to get better. They lost the division by five games last year.

They they lost Tucker (4.5 WAR), Brad Keller (2.2 rWAR), and Drew Pomeranz (1.3 rWAR) to free agency. That's another eight wins out the door.

Trading for Cabrera and signing Bregman mitigates those losses some for sure, and will probably even be enough to make them Division Favorites amongst the punditry again.

And that's all fine, the Brewers haven't been Division Favorites in any of the last three seasons but won the NLC every year anyway, and by two dozen combined games to boot.

When the Cubs are still paying 35/36 year old Bregman $35M a few years from now the Brewers could have Made or Fischer or Pena or who knows what kind of young trade acquisition in their prime playing third base. 

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

I know we do our best here to down play the Cubs and their moves, but the Cubs are trying to get better. 

But are the 2026 Cubs actually better than last year’s version?

[owbc]

How often do we see a contract like this where the happiest day for the fanbase is the day the signing is announced and then it’s all downhill from there? 
 

Theres not a whole lot of upside in this contract. Bregman ain’t gonna have a career year at 32. If they are lucky they get their 3-4 WAR/year, but Cubs’ ownership didn’t magically become free spenders and they deferred salary to avoid the luxury tax. They are done spending.