Durbin vs. Eugenio Suarez debate

[jay87shot]

I think this is an interesting potential debate. Suarez signed for 1/15 with the Reds yesterday and that seems very light for a player who hit 49 bombs last year. There is no doubt that Suarez's big bat would have looked amazing in our lineup however I think Durbin may likely have a better year than Suarez when everything is said and done, there is no doubt Saurez's thunder in the bat is a massive advantage. Here is a base number comparision of 2025.

Durbin (currently 25) .256/.334/.721  11 HR 53 RBI 25 2B 18 SB 30BB/50K 101 ops+, +2 baserunning (savant), +5 defensive runs saved (baseball-reference).  136 games (506 pa), 2.8 WAR (reference)

Suarez (currently 34)  .228/.298/.824  49 HR 118 RBI 28 2B 4 SB 46BB/196 K  126 ops+,  -3 baserunning, -6 defensive runs saved, 159 games (657 pa), 3.6 WAR

I am sure you could go into some of the hard hit data and that would highly favor Suarez and if you went into contact and chase data that would likely favor Durbs. If you add in the 25 games or so Durbin spent in the minors both guys WAR would be very close.

I get that money becomes an issue but for the sake of argument lets just pretend we could have afforded Suarez (I sure there probably could have been a way) and money isn't part of the issue. Also take out any long term control issues. For 2026, would you rather have had Suarez or Durbin?

[igor67]

I strongly suspect Suarez is the bigger risk to just absolutely fall apart. Even in the modern environment a small decline and I think that offense only profile just falls apart.

[jay87shot]

I will say I side with Durbin on the basis that I think he will improve this year, when you take out his 1st 100 ab's or so he was great. I think there is a good chance he hit like .270/.350/.400 this year with 15 HR and 25 sb. Where I can't see Suarez getting 49 bombs again, even if he played in AFF. I think if you predict Suarez to hit 35 HR and around 100 rbi's the intangibles Durbin brings offset the massive power boost. Also Durbin seemingly fits in with the team and young guys really well (not that Suarez couldn't). If we didn't have Yeli at DH I think getting Suarez would have been much more plausible and he could have just played 3B and maybe 1B occasionally but that wouldn't have been the case. 

[kestrel79]

Maybe the Hoskins signing from a few years back scared the Brewers away from Suarez. We tried to sign a power bat and spend money and it didn't work out. Don't want to risk that again? But agreed it looks like a deal we could of made.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Given the current emphasis the Brewers place on run prevention, it's unlikely they would see Suarez as an acceptable option at 3b defensively. So I'm not sure Durbin is really the appropriate comparison. 

There is some reason to believe that past associations mean that the Reds got a deal that Brewers might not have. Apparently the Pirates had a better offer on paper, for example.

[endaround]

1. Woodruff accepting the qualifying offer likely ate up any free money the Brewers had and then some.

2. Suarez's defense would not be acceptable at 3B for the Brewers and they already have DH (and 1B) covered.

Suarez also is projected to return to an average of his 2023 and 2024 which is not terrible but not much better than Durbin.  Suarez also has a risk of complete collapse (not to say Durbin's extremely weak contact profile also doesn't have some issues).

[Roderick]

If money was not the issue, we would sign him, even to just to be a rotating bat if it came to that.  If we had to "lose" Durbin in this scenario to acquire Suarez, then that is a no.

Obviously, you can't take money out of the decision, so easy decision to pass at this time.  Since it is a one year deal - I can see if the Reds are out of it, Suarez is having a good year, and we don't have production at 3B where we are talking in July.

[Turning2]

The debate probably isn't Suarez vrs Durbin. Suarez at 3B most likely doesn't push Durbin's bat out of the lineup. More likely, it moves it to 2B and pushes Ortiz's bat out of the lineup. What's a better infield offensive lineup  - one with Suarez, Durbin, Turang and Vaughn, or Ortiz, Durbin, Turang, Vaughn? 

I would have been fine had they landed him at 1/18.  His defense can't be that absolutely incompetent to offset probably 30 HRs / 90 RBIs.

Overall I'm indifferent to not adding him.  

[tmwiese55]

Yes that's generally my take too.   An unknown thing factor in that to us as fans is whether MKE is open to Turang at SS.   

I'd add one thing, that having Vaugn already is a factor here and if you could've known Suarez at 17 mil or Vaughn at 7.5 which would they choose.  I think we'd probably go with Suarez, but there was no way of knowing that 3 months ago.

[long ball]

Suarez at $15m/1 year would’ve been a nice addition to this roster. We could’ve figured out how he fits in. Probably doesn’t even need to be an “either/or situation”. 
 

in a vacuum I’d say Suarez is a better player than Durbin in 2026. However, teams don’t operate in a vacuum. They constantly have to weigh talent, payroll, development, and club house fit. How Suarez fits into the defense isn’t a simple answer. DRS has always been down on his defense at third while FRV has been overall positive prior to 2025. No idea what the Brewers internal valuation would be on his defense, but they didn’t acquire him at the trade deadline when he went for a relatively low trade package. I think you could argue he was a more important target at the trade deadline than he was this off season. DH is occupied by Yelich and Contreras. 
 

it’s also worth noting that a $15/1 deal may not have even been an option for the Brewers. It’s possible suarez prefers the reds even if the brewers presented an equivalent offer. 

[owbc]

The same debate is going on in my Mariners fan circle because they passed on Suarez in favor of Ben Williamson who is a 25 year old Joey Ortiz-style defensive specialist. 

Williamson in 2025: 295 PA, .253 BA, .604 OPS

Durbin is better than Williamson so the Mariners would have valued Suarez as a more valuable add than the Brewers and they still didn't bite at 1/15. 

Suarez has been a plus defender historically. He still looked average to me in 2025 and I think you could assume average defense again in 2026. 

It's pretty clear that everyone ran the numbers and reached the same conclusion. Geno is one of the streakiest hitters on the planet. He went on a crazy bender with Arizona last year and then was god awful in Seattle, striking out 35% of the time. One critical grand slam in the playoffs justified the entire trade from Seattle's perspective.

[liveforoctober]

Turning 35 this year. When will his power fade? When it does he is a below replacement level player. Can't play defense and can't get on base - two things our front office yearns for. His last full season in Cincy in '21 he put up -.7 WAR (ESPN)! Pass for me at $15+mil.

Hopeful for him that he has another great power season and parlays it into another contract or the Reds pick up his option. Glad we are not the ones rolling the dice.

[Brewcrew82]

25 minutes ago, owbc said:

The same debate is going on in my Mariners fan circle because they passed on Suarez in favor of Ben Williamson who is a 25 year old Joey Ortiz-style defensive specialist. 

Williamson in 2025: 295 PA, .253 BA, .604 OPS

Durbin is better than Williamson so the Mariners would have valued Suarez as a more valuable add than the Brewers and they still didn't bite at 1/15. 

Suarez has been a plus defender historically. He still looked average to me in 2025 and I think you could assume average defense again in 2026. 

It's pretty clear that everyone ran the numbers and reached the same conclusion. Geno is one of the streakiest hitters on the planet. He went on a crazy bender with Arizona last year and then was god awful in Seattle, striking out 35% of the time. One critical grand slam in the playoffs justified the entire trade from Seattle's perspective.

Suarez's range fell off a cliff last year at -6 OAA. I don't see that coming back now that he's entering his mid 30s. 

In Milwaukee, where IF defense is non-negotiable, he would effectively be a non-option at 3B. I think there's a reason you're hearing Cincy talk about him at 1B and DH. They have that flexibility on their roster. We don't with Yeli making $25 million.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Turning 35 this year. When will his power fade? When it does he is a below replacement level player. Can't play defense and can't get on base - two things our front office yearns for. His last full season in Cincy in '21 he put up -.7 WAR (ESPN)! Pass for me at $15+mil.

Hopeful for him that he has another great power season and parlays it into another contract or the Reds pick up his option. Glad we are not the ones rolling the dice.

Another thing about Suarez besides the defense is the decline in his plate discipline metrics last year. For a guy who already strikes out 30% of the time, that's a bright red flashing light. Once his bat speed goes, which it could at any time at his age, that's the end of him as a MLB player.

There just wasn't much of an incentive on the Brewers part to give him $15 million, even on one year, and eat into their financial flexibility for this season. 

[Jopal78]

I don’t think Saurez really lines up with the philosophy the Brewers have. They’ve made an obvious shift away from having a bunch of 3TO sluggers into contact hitters with early aggression, and pressure with motion on the bases. 
 

He would have easily lead the Brewers in Ks, (he struck out nearly 50 more times than Turang in the same number of PAs). His OBP would have bested only Joey Ortiz. Saurez hunts mistakes and often hits (and strikes out) from behind in the count, and his sprint speed is contrary to what the Brewers are trying to do offensively. 
 

That he only got a 1 year 15 million dollar deal after hitting 49 bombs and 28 doubles in 2025 indicates the rest of MLB has concerns about his game too. 

[edfunderburk]

12 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I think Durbin may likely have a better year than Suarez when everything is said and done

I agree that Caleb Durbin will outperform Eugenio Suarez in 2026

I also believe Chad Patrick will have a better year than Freddy Peralta 

[jay87shot]

On 2/2/2026 at 9:22 PM, edfunderburk said:

I agree that Caleb Durbin will outperform Eugenio Suarez in 2026

I also believe Chad Patrick will have a better year than Freddy Peralta 

CP had a 3.53 FIP and I would say got better as the year went on. Freddy had a 3.64 FIP and got traded to a team that is going to have a rough defense. 

Great point.

[TURBO]

It seems simple to me.

Suarez would have out homered Durbin.

Durbin would be better at everything else...

[Playing Catch]

Good, fun topic.

But it may be too convenient to compare the two as 3rd basemen. Durbin was acquired, and is rostered, to serve in a multi-dimensional role that could turn into a starter's role through performance. He was acquired to provide redundancy with those skills the Brewers have targeted in their position-player group (e.g. defense, baserunning, contact, grit, etc.)

The Reds traded for Ke'Bryan Hayes to play 3rd, moving stud prospect Noelvi Marte to RF, and may put prospect, Sal Stewart at 1B.

They are paying Suarez to DH.

[Bulldogboy]

Suarez would have been fall back if Vaughn turns back into white Sox Vaughn. I am shocked at how everyone seems to assume he's going to hit again. There is no question he could easily go back to hitting 175. Hope not but if so they are completely cooked.

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

Suarez would have been fall back if Vaughn turns back into white Sox Vaughn. I am shocked at how everyone seems to assume he's going to hit again. There is no question he could easily go back to hitting 175. Hope not but if so they are completely cooked.

Vaughn has never been a .175 hitter. He has nearly 3000 MLB PA where he's established a pretty strong floor as a league average hitter. Last year he was bad in Chicago but he also significantly underperformed his peripherals. He had a .217 BABIP and underperformed his xwOBA by 83 points in Chicago last year.

[Roderick]

12 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

Suarez would have been fall back if Vaughn turns back into white Sox Vaughn. I am shocked at how everyone seems to assume he's going to hit again. There is no question he could easily go back to hitting 175. Hope not but if so they are completely cooked.

I agree that Vaughn could turn back into a pumpkin.  But if we have to, Bauers can take the heavy side of the 1B platoon.  And if he has a bad season, maybe Tyler Black is still on the roster.  I think Vaughn will hit lefties, even as a pumpkin.

[Playing Catch]

I think that the Brewers' 1st base platoon is less likely to turn into a pumpkin than Suarez, unless he plays a lot of cromulent 1st base, then it's probably closer to even odds.

[liveforoctober]

16 hours ago, Bulldogboy said:

Suarez would have been fall back if Vaughn turns back into white Sox Vaughn. I am shocked at how everyone seems to assume he's going to hit again. There is no question he could easily go back to hitting 175. Hope not but if so they are completely cooked.

Do you follow our minor league system much?

[Soupy]

In one year Made and Pratt are gonna be ready. Cant clog things up with Suarez unless it was that one year deal. Brewers are set in the infield for a long time with those kids almost ready.